Question of the Day - 08 September 2024

The traditional answer to this question is 4.5%. That's the edge the player faces on a bet that has a 50/50 chance of winning, where the bookmaker charges the conventional "vig" (short for "vigorish," meaning "a charge paid on a bet") of -110 on each side (i.e., bet $110 to win $100).

Considering the multiple betting options available, however, the answer becomes more complex.

The most common bet on an NFL game for people to make at a Las Vegas sports book is a side or a total. A side is where you pick one team, plus or minus points, versus the other team. Betting on the total means wagering that the total points for the game will be over or under the sports book's posted number. Most people bet these at -110, giving the above 4.5% edge to the house.

Proposition ("prop") and futures bets often vary from the standard -110. They tend to include a greater house edge, because the bookie feels less confident in making a good line on them. A prop bet may offer -115 on each side or even -120, for example, which increases the house edge to 6.7% or 9%, respectively.

One way to cut down the house edge is to shop for the best line. This means getting the most points if you’re betting the underdog and laying the fewest if you’re betting on the favorite. For example, if four sports books are offering your team +4 points and a fifth casino is offering +4.5, take the +4.5; this means you’ll win instead of pushing if your team loses by exactly four points.

Also, some books offer lower vig as a promotion to attract action. This football season, for example, the Westgate SuperBook is dealing -108 for all NFL sides and -109 for college sides (totals are standard -110) for the entire season. It’s not a huge betting benefit, but it’s the only reduced juice in Vegas currently. Other betting deals at the SuperBook include -105 on UNLV and Thursday NFL games, as well as other select games, including the Thanksgiving and Christmas schedules.

Anthony Curtis has always maintained that betting on sports is one of the best gambling values in a casino. This is because of the low house edge combined with the time factor. Certain games like blackjack, craps, and baccarat have a lower house edge than a sports bet. The difference, however, is that those games are played much faster. You may have 100 decisions (hands, rolls, etc.) an hour in those games, while with a bet, say, on an NFL game, you'll have one decision every three hours or so. 

If you bet $11 to win $10 on an NFL team, your expected loss, as we've said, is 4.5%. So it's like getting three hours of entertainment for about 50 cents (4.5% x $11). You can't beat that.