Question of the Day - 21 June 2021

[Editor's Note: This question was submitted with the request that Bob Dancer answer it, and so he does.]

It's far easier to ask such a question than it is to answer it. There are way too many variables to give you a simple answer. But I can tell you how you would find out that answer for yourself.

“Perfect play” is fairly easily defined, at least by computers. At some games, like 9/6 Jacks or Better, perfect play is rather easily obtainable; at others, like NSU Deuces Wild, perfect play is so elusive that probably less than one in 1,000 players obtains it. I know I don’t achieve perfection, although I come much closer than most other players do.

The problem is what you call the “ordinary absolutely no knowledge of play” level. Is that 2% less than perfection? 3%? 5%? It clearly varies among players and among games. Joker Wild games, for example, are far more difficult than, say, Double Double Bonus games.

Even when we define a given level of play, the bankroll required is not a single number. Bankrolls are defined with respect to certain chances of going broke, called “risk of ruin.” If it takes a $5,000 bankroll not to go broke 90% of the time, it takes a $10,000 bankroll not to go broke 99% of the time and a $20,000 bankroll not to go broke 99.9% of the time. So what level of risk of ruin do you want?

Presumably, what you want to know is not how much bankroll is needed for someone with absolutely no knowledge of play, but rather, how much bankroll do you need with your less-than-perfect knowledge of the game. (If this isn’t what you want to know, I don’t know how to help you.)

So the first step is to measure your skill level. Using Video Poker for Winners or other software, you can play 1,000 hands and get a reasonable estimate of how well you do. I’m not looking for the percentage of hands you play incorrectly, but rather the size of the errors you make. VPW calls this “return %” and you’ll find it in Analyze —  Overall Play —  Return —  return %.

Let’s say, hypothetically, you play at a 99% accuracy level. That would mean for 9/6 Jacks or Better, which normal returns 99.544%, you’re playing at 98.55%. That happens to be fairly close to the return of 8/6 Jacks or Better (actually 98.39%).

So using Video Poker for Winners, I'd look at the bankroll requirements for 8/6 Jacks or Better. If you play at 98% accuracy, I’d look at the bankroll requirements for 8/5 Jacks or Better.

If you make only a half-percent in errors, I’d look at both 9/6 numbers and 8/6 numbers and split the difference. It’ll be close enough.

This will work for any game covered by VPW. You can set it for any risk of ruin level you like and any denomination.