Question of the Day - 12 November 2023

Each year, hundreds and hundreds of different proposition wagers are posted by Las Vegas sports books for the Super Bowl. With all the prop bets posted by offshore books, there are probably more than 1,000 of them.

Most are the same year after year and professional bettors spend a lot of time coming up with their own prices, starting a month or so before the Super Bowl. Some props can be priced without even knowing who’s playing in the Big Game. For example, the Yes/No wager on whether or not there will be a safety can be priced very early, as which teams are playing isn't really important. NFL stats purchased by pros provide the info they need to price each prop accurately.

Once the championship games are completed two weeks before the Super Bowl, the pros kick into high gear and the next three or so days are their most labor-intensive of the year. Team/player stats are analyzed in excruciating detail. The data will spit out a price, but these numbers usually need some human adjustments.

For example, data may show a kicker's touchback percentage at -200. But a sharp bettor may note that a sizable number of these kicks were in games in frigid weather conditions, which makes it much more difficult to kick a touchback. Therefore, since the Super Bowl is in Las Vegas, a pro will omit all the frigid kicks and a data-driven number of -200 might be adjusted to -250.

By the time Westgate releases its props on the Thursday night 10 days before kickoff, sharps know exactly what the price should be on each proposition offered. So they can bet into lines that offer value. And that, in a nutshell, is the best way to make prop bets -- if you're interested only in making money.

Not interested in giving up your entire month of January preparing for SB props? Well, there's a much easier, though totally unscientific, method of finding value on the props board.  

Many props are of the Yes/No variety. It’s human nature to want to root for something to happen and the oddsmakers aren't unaware of this. Therefore, books set the Yes lines at a decided disadvantage, then sit and wait for the public money to pour in. Pros know these numbers are too high and generally bet the No\ side. So now we have the public on the Yes side pitted against the books and sharps in bed together on the No side.

Same goes for over/under props. The public always likes the overs and books will consequently set the numbers high. Enter the sharps who know these numbers are too high and bet the unders.   

A good example of No and under in action was the game between the Patriots and L.A. Rams in 2019, Super Bowl LIII, in which the Patriots won 13-3. Actually, the game boasted the lowest total points in Super Bowl history and might've qualified as the most boring. The score was locked up 3-3 going into the fourth quarter, with another field goal and the only touchdown scored by the Pats in Q4.

This game was very good for the books and pros and bad for the public. Not much of anything happened in the game, so all those Yes bets were losers. Pros and sports books love boring games!

Another example. The year before, the Eagles' 41-33 win over the Pats was huge for the public, while the books and sharps took it on the chin.

In the end, if you’re looking to have fun, bet the Yes and Overs and have a blast rooting for your money.   

But if you’re the type who puts profits before fun, then sit back and watch the Big Game, root for basically nothing to happen (3 yards and a cloud of dust will be your mantra!), and cash those No and Under wagers.