Question of the Day - 01 February 2020

[Editor's Note: Yes, there is a science to betting Super Bowl propositions and we handed this question off to a practitioner of the science (and art) of it, Steve Sharp, author of our upcoming book, Win at Sports Betting.] 

Each year, roughly 600 different proposition wagers are posted by Las Vegas sports books for the Super Bowl. I haven’t actually sat down to count each one, but I'm allowing Westgate’s 400, which many other books copy, and estimating that each other book in town offers approximately 20 of their own home-cooked unique props which aren’t found elsewhere. If anything, this 600 number is probably on the conservative side. I've seen that William Hill books post a thousand of 'em.  

Most of these props are the same year after year and professional bettors spend mega-hours coming up with prices even a month or so before the Big Game, as some can be priced without even knowing who’s playing. For example, the Yes/No wager on whether or not there will be a safety can be priced very early, as which teams are playing isn't really important. NFL stats purchased by pros provide the info they need to price each prop accurately.

Once the championship games are completed two weeks before the Super Bowl, professional bettors kick into high gear and the next three or so days are their most labor-intensive days of the year. Team/player stats are analyzed in excruciating detail. The data will spit out a price, but these numbers usually need some human adjustments.

For example, data may show a kicker touchback percentage at -200. But a sharp bettor may note that a sizable number of these kicks were in games in frigid weather conditions, which makes it much more difficult to kick a touchback. Therefore, since the Super Bowl is in Miami, he will omit all the frigid kicks and the data-driven -200 number could be adjusted to -250.

By the time Westgate releases its props on the Thursday night 10 days before kickoff, sharps know exactly what the price should be on each proposition offered and bet into lines that offer value.  

Not interested in giving up your entire month of January preparing for SB props? Well, there's a much easier, though totally unscientific, method of finding value on the props board.  

Many props are of the Yes/No variety. It’s human nature to want to root for something to happen and the oddsmakers aren't unaware of this. Therefore, books set the “Yes” lines at a decided disadvantage, then sit and wait for the public money to pour in. Professional bettors know these numbers are too high and generally bet the “No” side. So in the end, we have the public on the Yes side pitted against the books and sharps in bed together on the No side.

Same goes for over/under props. The public always likes the overs and books will consequently set the numbers high. Enter the sharps who know these numbers are too high and bet the unders.   

Last year’s Super Bowl between the Patriots and L.A. Rams (Patriots won 13-3 ) was very good for books and pros and bad for the public. Not much of anything happened in the game, so all those Yes bets were losers. There wasn’t even a TD until the waning minutes of the 4th quarter. Pros and sports books love boring games! The year before, the Eagles' 41-33 win over the Pats was huge for the public, while the books and sharps took it on the chin.

In the end, if you’re looking to have fun, bet the Yes and Overs and have a blast rooting for your money!   

But if you’re the type who puts profits before fun, then sit back and watch (I’m guessing alone) the Big Game, root for basically nothing to happen (3 yards and a cloud of dust will be your mantra!), and cash those No and Under wagers.