Do the video poker pros who figure out math-wise when a progressive is playable also chase those sequential royal flush progressives? The dollar sequential RF at the Aliante is now at $290,000, but few seem to play it. Are the odds against a sequential RF just too great to ever chase?
[Editor's Note: Our quintessential video poker pro, Robert G. Dancer, answers this one.]
Sequential royal flushes are in order. It depends whether it’s a one-way sequential (usually TJQKA) or two-way (TJQKA or AKQJT).
According to the Wizard of Odds, a one-way sequential adds about 0.526% for every 100,000 coins above the normal 4,000 jackpot. A two-way sequential, not surprisingly, adds twice that.
Since the sequential you asked about is in dollars, it’s easy to translate $290,000 into 290,000 coins. This is 286,000 above the 4,000-coin baseline, so if it’s a one-way progressive it adds 2.86 (0.526%) = 1.5% to whatever the base game is. A two-way progressive adds twice that, namely 3.0%. You didn’t mention the exact game in your question, so maybe the sequential makes it playable. Maybe it doesn’t.
Most of that return comes when you hit the royal. If you’re not the one who has hit the royal, it’s very very expensive to chase.
For one player managing 800 hands per hour, eight hours per day, it will take about one year of such play to hit a two-way sequential and two years to hit a one-way sequential. Those are average amounts. It could easily be much shorter or much longer. And if there are several machines attached to this sequential, you never know who’s going to be the one to collect.
There are strategic plays you need to make as the sequential progressive increases. A year and a half ago, I addressed this in a blog post.
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