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Question of the Day - 05 April 2022

Q:

Do the video poker pros who figure out math-wise when a progressive is playable also chase those sequential royal flush progressives? The dollar sequential RF at the Aliante is now at $290,000, but few seem to play it. Are the odds against a sequential RF just too great to ever chase?

A:

[Editor's Note: Our quintessential video poker pro, Robert G. Dancer, answers this one.]

Sequential royal flushes are in order. It depends whether it’s a one-way sequential (usually TJQKA) or two-way (TJQKA or AKQJT).

According to the Wizard of Odds, a one-way sequential adds about 0.526% for every 100,000 coins above the normal 4,000 jackpot. A two-way sequential, not surprisingly, adds twice that.

Since the sequential you asked about is in dollars, it’s easy to translate $290,000 into 290,000 coins. This is 286,000 above the 4,000-coin baseline, so if it’s a one-way progressive it adds 2.86 (0.526%) = 1.5% to whatever the base game is. A two-way progressive adds twice that, namely 3.0%. You didn’t mention the exact game in your question, so maybe the sequential makes it playable. Maybe it doesn’t.

Most of that return comes when you hit the royal. If you’re not the one who has hit the royal, it’s very very expensive to chase.

For one player managing 800 hands per hour, eight hours per day, it will take about one year of such play to hit a two-way sequential and two years to hit a one-way sequential. Those are average amounts. It could easily be much shorter or much longer. And if there are several machines attached to this sequential, you never know who’s going to be the one to collect.

There are strategic plays you need to make as the sequential progressive increases. A year and a half ago, I addressed this in a blog post

 

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Comments

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  • Jackie Apr-05-2022
    Bob,why is it you never answer the obvious question?
    The person was asking how to tell when the progressive reached the amount to make it sought after by the pro.
    However you just said "I can't be bothered to go to Aliante and check out the progressive you are asking about."
    So, I'll just answer you with some BS generalities.
    If you are too lazy to reply to good QOD questions then what good are you.

  • VegasVic Apr-05-2022
    Jackie
    Life's too short to always be angry. annoyed, offended, enraged, uptight and bitter. Relax, get some exercise, it will make a difference. 

  • O2bnVegas Apr-05-2022
    Yikes, Jackie!
    This attack on Bob needs to reside in Kitchen Sink, the home of all attacks and verbal abuse permitted by LVA.
    
    I'm no pro, but I know that SR games are rare to even find anywhere.  Maybe Bob knows every VP "pro" on the planet, and whether they "chase" SR or maybe he doesn't.  If anyone is a VP pro, Bob ranks way up there among them.  I read his reply as 'no, not worth it' to chase SRs, so that's a good answer IMHO.
    
    Candy  

  • Carl LaFong Apr-05-2022
    Jackie...
    It appears that the question can't really be answered:
    
     "You didn’t mention the exact game in your question, so maybe the sequential makes it playable. Maybe it doesn’t."
    
    The sought after amount can't be determined.

  • KennyA Apr-05-2022
    jackie
    With your unlimited knowledge, why don't you answer the question?

  • RichM Apr-05-2022
    Jackie, Bob's answer is "no way"
    ...and if you weren't too lazy to read the linked blog post, you'd have had your answer. :)

  • Ray Apr-05-2022
    Whoa, everyone, cool down
    Jackie may have gone overboard, but Bob seems to quite often tiptoe around the questions he answers and avoid giving out anything that is really useful to all of us. Simply put, since the question assumed that "VP pros" do the math on progressives, do they also do the same thing for Sequential progressives. And I would guess that the answer is yes but deciding whether or not to play depends on their tolerance for the added volatility because so much of the payback is in the jackpot. He also could have said what HE does on SRF, and whether the amount attracts HIM to those     

  • VegasVic Apr-05-2022
    Click the link!
    As Rich said, click the link to the blog for a detailed answer. It's right there.  Easier for Jackie to put on her tinfoil hat and go on an uninformed (again) attack.  

  • Andyb Apr-05-2022
    Sq Royal
    I have been playing this game since 1985, Ive sat next to Bob at the Golden Nugget and taken a few of his classes. A very nice and friendly guy. I have hit maybe 100 Royals and only one Sequential it was by chance. Was on quarters, a progressive so I got just a little over 1k. I have a picture and it's on my facebook. LOL This should be about information and fun not to attack Bob.  

  • Bob Apr-05-2022
    Odds/Karma
    While Ya'll are over analyzing this... some retired Librarian from Dubuque Ia. is going to sit down with Her Pack of Smokes, Her Vodka Tonic, and a Hundy. and hit it on her 5th hand!  "Oh Look, they are all the same color"    Just say'n   

  • Roy Furukawa Apr-05-2022
    @Jackie
    I give Jackie a pass, I know she wanted a yes or no answer, but Bob saying it's very, VERY expensive to chase it means just that, it's highly unlikely any pro would chase it when it would take a huge risk of capital and a lot of time to try to win it. Professionals aren't playing to pass time or have fun, but they do make a living off of playing.

  • Donzack Apr-05-2022
    Thanks 
    Thanks Bob for giving an good answer to a pretty obvious question. Without Bob’s literature, software and classes I’d still be scratching my head as to what I’m doing wrong. I’ve seen Bob take verbal criticism by someone relating a story about a guy getting a royal by holding  suited A/10 and the game is more about luck than anything else. Bob shrugged his shoulders and walked away. Thanks again  Bob.

  • Jackie Apr-05-2022
    @ Bob's defenders
    How interesting that Bod did not defend himself.
    That alone shows I was correct in my critique.
    
    

  • Jeff Apr-05-2022
    Re: Bob Dancer's chosen calling
    What boggles the mind are the lengths to which "Bob Dancer" and other APs go to avoid getting jobs that add value to the common good, e.g. teaching, nursing, cleaning, repairing, fire fighting, whatever, where one doesn't have to skulk like a criminal with fake names and disguises.
    
    I grok the attraction of something for nothing, but what Bob graphically details as the AP life is hardly one of something for nothing. It's just as or more arduous seeking royal flushes as a career as performing tasks that make a positive difference in the lives of one's fellow citizens.
    
    Without the satisfaction of adding value to society,the AP life requires the same work ethic, energy, and as much or even more discipline and adherence to a schedule of a time intensive activity of performing the same task over and over (10 times a minute in the case of a VP AP) every day, week after week, year after year.
    
    What is the epitaph for such people? "Here lies John Smith. He got four royals in one month."

  • Carl LaFong Apr-08-2022
    Jackie @ Bob's defenders
    Why should he "defend himself" when your attack is a nothing burger.

  • Carl LaFong Apr-09-2022
    Jackie @ Bob's defenders
    Why should he "defend himself" when your attack is a nothing burger.