Do Sports Books Shade Their Lines Based on Local Biases?

Are the companies that operate sports books in multiple states using identical lines/odds in all markets, or will they shade them to reflect local demand? For example, does William Hill post different odds for Philadelphia Phillies games and/or World Series futures in Atlantic City than they do in Nevada?

[This answer was graciously and expertly submitted by Kill Phil co-author Blair Rodman, who's writing a big book on sports betting that we expect to release next year.]

The quick answer is yes, books do shade lines. The sports books that operate in multiple states around the country are owned by large corporations that are in business to make money for their shareholders, not to worry about what might seem fair to bettors. Any intelligent bookmaker will tell you that it's smart business to adjust his lines for customers who will almost certainly bet on the local team, as long as there are no laws or regulations to prevent it, which there aren't at present and probably won't be any time soon. Regulators have much more to worry about these days.

So, what is a bettor to do if faced with a situation where he can't get the widespread line on his local team, but would be forced to take a worse line if he wanted to bet?

One answer would be to find someone in a different location to make a bet for you. Let's say the New York Giants are playing the New Orleans Saints and you're a Saints fan living in Mississippi. The Mississippi books might recognize that a preponderance of their customers are Saints fans and move the widespread line of the Saints -4 to -4.5. Conversely, the New York books might move it to the Giants +3.5. If you know someone in New York who'd get a bet down for you on the Saints -3.5, you'd not only avoid taking a half-point the worst of it in a Mississippi book, you'd get a half-point the best of it by having the bet made in New York.

Another option would be to have an account at an offshore book that doesn't shade lines based on location. While there are pitfalls in entering the offshore market (which I describe in detail in my soon-to-be-published book), there are also advantages, such as in this case.

If the bettor in question can stomach betting against his own team, he'd get a better line than most of the betting universe. While not necessarily enough to provide a positive-expectation bet, getting the best of the line is always valuable.

Sometimes a bettor can find a situation that does provide an edge. A friend of mine found a book in Carson City that was extreme in their line shading for Nevada and Bay Area teams. He simply bet the other side in those games and gained an automatic edge. For example, in a Golden State Warriors game where the widespread was GS -2, they put them up -4. The game ended with GS winning by 2, so while most bettors pushed, GS bettors lost handily. It didn't take long for the sports book manager to figure out what my friend was doing, cut his limits drastically, then finally told him his action wasn't welcomed.

Like I said, if you're looking for fairness, sports betting might not be the best milieu.

Do sports books shade lines based on local biases?

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AyeCarambaPoker Sep-27-2019

Books

Technically the book doesn’t care if the home team wins or loses. The line is driven by demand - more money placed on either side will drive the line up or down in order for the book to match. 

It’s a nature of the beast that more money is placed on a book’s home team, thereby making the home team a shorter price than they would be in a neutral market. 

Isn’t it also that books with multiple operating states can’t use one state’s market to cover another state’s. I’m sure each location has to act as a separate book

Kevin Lewis Sep-27-2019

Beat L.A.

I was told by several people, on several different occasions, that a winning strategy was to simply bet against the Los Angeles Anythings, in any sport, and ideally wait until just before game time to do it. The best juicy fruit, they claimed, was on the weekends when all the lemmings poured in from SoCal and wanted to bet on their homies. A couple of folks told me that they would get almost automatic middles if they put a bet down on the LA Rams on Sunday night (for the following game) and then waited a week for the line to move.

I don't know if the communication and interaction between books is better now than it used to be. Books used to routinely lay off action with one another. Is that still done in Corporate Casino Vegas?

Question of the Day - 27 September 2019

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