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Question of the Day - 03 November 2020

Q:

The new sports book at the local casino will give me 100% match on a $200 deposit (Grand Falls in Iowa). I’m not a sports better, but it seems this makes it worth taking a chance. Any advice on what bets I should look at for the best chance to cash out $400 when the betting's done?

A:
[Editor's Note: This answer is provided by Logan Fields, author of our new title 20/20 Sports Betting.] 
 
When making your $200 deposit, you'll be awarded 100%, which puts your balance at $400, with a goal of cashing out at this figure. At first blush, I thought the best way to guarantee cashing out at $400 would be to put your entire balance in play on a heavy favorite, say -800, which most likely would result in a $50 win and a balance of $450. Playing (and winning) this huge favorite would result in walking away with $450, a 125% gain on your initial investment.
 
But wait. Not so fast.
 
As if often the case with casino promotions, the devil's in the details. I looked at the fine print for this promotion and sure enough, they put in a clause stating that favorites of -200 or more cannot be played with the bonus funds. So playing by their stated rules, making a $400 wager on a -190 favorite (with true odds of -175) would result in over a 63% chance you'll walk away with $610.
 
Or if you'd rather have a little less gamble and be content with $400, I'd consider making a couple of $200 wagers at -110, which would give you a 75% chance of reaching, or far exceeding if you won both plays, your $400 goal. Actually, when factoring in the juice, if you won one of the two wagers, your return would be slightly less ($381).
 
If this isn't enough and you still want to reach your goal of $400, you could use the Martingale system (starting with a $20 bet and doubling after each loss), which would result in a 94% chance of getting to $400. Generally speaking, any discussion of using a Martingale system is enough to make an advantage player sick, but with a very specific goal in mind (having $380 and needing only $20 more), occasionally there can be a time and place for it.   
 
It's certainly within your right to make plays in this fashion, but just don't expect fist-pumps and back-slapping from casino personnel when you cash out. The advice above pretty much falls under the category of bonus exploitation. And since this casino is local, if you're interested in establishing or maintaining a good relationship with them, I wouldn't recommend taking this route, as exploiting such a bonus is frowned on across the gambling industry.   
 
No part of this answer may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the publisher.

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Comments

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  • Mark Hancock Nov-03-2020
    rollovers
    In addition many sports books will make you rollover bonus money several times before you can take it out.

  • DwWashburn9 Nov-03-2020
    Play money
    I love that last statement "exploiting such a bonus is frowned on across the gambling industry".  Translation -- we'll give you a bonus but you'd better not cash it.

  • Nov-03-2020
    A possible "catch"
    Another possible caveat, in addition to what Mark Hancock wrote, is that they may not give you the matching $200 until after you've bet your original $200.  This is the way it works with the 100% matching bonuses in the legal American online horse-race-betting companies (one or more of the following: TVG, TwinSpires, NYRA Bets, DRF Bets).  You would deposit your $200, make $200 worth of bets, and then no matter whether you won or lost, THEN the place would add $200 to your account.  Then you would have to bet that $200; you couldn't just withdraw it from your account.  But these horse-racing places only require one-time rollover (i.e., bet the bonus $200 one time) in order for you to cash out all that's in your account.  So you should definitely ask the place about what I'm mentioning and what Mark mentioned, so that you know exactly how it all works.  Be ready to make TWO separate $200 bets at two different times.

  • Nov-03-2020
    Another strategy
    There are many ways in which you can make bets to try to ensure a profit. Here's one: If there's another place (physical or online) where you can make bets, you could deposit $200 there also, then in your "promo" place you bet the favorite at -110, and in the other place, you bet the underdog at +110.  If your $200 bet at the "promo" place wins, you will make a profit of $182 on it.  Your bet at the 2nd place would lose, so you'd be standing at -$18.  But then the promo place would add $200 to your account, so you'd be sitting at +$182.  If the opposite result happens, your balance at the promo place would be $0, but your balance at the 2nd place would be $382, so again, you'd be sitting at -$18.  But then when the promo place adds $200 to your account, you'd be $182 ahead.

  • [email protected] Nov-03-2020
    to AL
    That's interesting about the horse racing account wagering bonuses.  I'm a big horse racing fan, but because I live in a non-pari-mutual state I cannot sign up for one of those accounts.  Of course, watching TVG or NYRA I salivate at all the offers they make!
    
    So would a good play be to make two $200 show bets on big favorites, or do they require you to make win bets?

  • James Mason Nov-03-2020
    circa
    not imprrssed yes clean nice glitzy but $4 hour to park out rageous food and drink prices
    high vp crappy and hard to find anywhere looks like a sports betting bet not for me
    

  • Deke Castleman Nov-03-2020
    This in via email
    I was excited to see my QOD this morning, 11/3/2020. The advice is helpful (for what’s left of my money) but Logan Fields did miss one detail when he checked out the fine print. The $200 bonus money doesn’t go to me if I win the bet, only the win. For example I bet $50 on Bengals to beat the Browns expecting to win $115, the $50 bet and $65 for the win. However I only received the $65, not the bonus money i used to place the bet, it disappears after the bet is placed. Thought he, and perhaps others, would want to know.  

  • Ray Nov-03-2020
    restrictions for a reason
    They have restrictions to prevent exactly what the questioner is trying to do. They want you to play...and to play with them. It's like slot machine free play or table game match play. The sports book will give you money to play, but you must play. If you win, someone else loses, but if they let you cash out too easily, their "gift" is not working. Pick the chalk, pick the dog, but at least pick.