Do you think people will tip less now that tips are not subject to income tax? However, the fine print should be more publicized. $25,000 of tips are not subject to tax and workers still have to make the FICA and Medicare contribution of 7.65%. While many believe it was a windfall, the bill only lessened the tax burden somewhat.
The No Tax on Tips Act allows tipped workers to deduct up to $25,000 in cash tips from their federal income tax for the years 2025–2028, provided they earn less than $160,000 annually (adjusted for inflation).
Our answer to the question of people tipping less is maybe. We see the arguments on both sides.
On the yes side, some tippers could assume that since servers, bartenders, and other tipped workers are keeping more of their tips due to the tax exemption, it reduces the perceived need to tip generously. We can see people who don't like to tip in general reasoning that the tax break essentially "subsidizes" tipped workers’ income, leading them to tip less to "offset" this benefit.
What's more, the National Restaurant Association has indicated that the new tax policy could indeed lead to customers tipping less. The NRA cited "tipping fatigue," whereby some consumers are increasingly frustrated by frequent and high prompts to tip. These include pre-entered tip options on payment screens; some we've seen start at 20% and go up from there. This frustration, combined with economic pressures like a slowing economy (Big Four accounting firm KPMG’s Consumer Pulse report projects a 7% drop in consumer spending on dining out in mid- to late 2025) could encourage patrons to reduce tips, especially if they perceive workers as financially better off due to the tax break.
On the no side, anyone who's aware that the federal tipped minimum wage is $2.13 per hour (unless the hourly tipped wage falls below the full minimum of $7.25) might not be so fast to assume that this is major windfall -- as the question states. The most recent data we could find was a study by the Yale Budget Lab, which found that 37% of tipped workers paid no federal income tax in 2022 due to low earnings. That means the tax exemption probably won't significantly increase the take-home pay for many, if not most, wait people, cocktail servers, bartenders, etc. Since the tax break offers little to no benefit for these workers, patrons, including us, probably will not feel less inclined to tip generously.
By the way, the median wage for restaurant servers is about $32,000 annually and with the $25,000 deduction, the tax saving is modest at best (averaging $1,800/year or $35/week per the Tax Policy Center) and barely noticeable at worst. It's certainly not enough to change the tipping behavior of patrons who know how hard these people work and how little they earn.
Furthermore, cash tips must still be reported to employers for payroll-tax purposes (Social Security and Medicare) and the IRS claims that there's significant underreporting of cash tips. If workers report tips more accurately to claim the deduction, it could actually increase their payroll tax burden, potentially offsetting some of the No Tax benefits.
Meanwhile, tipping is so deeply ingrained in U.S. dining culture that the social norms are unlikely to shift dramatically due to a tax policy that doesn’t directly affect patrons. Consumers will most likely continue tipping based on service quality, social pressure, habit, and/or philosophy, rather than adjusting for workers’ tax status.
And that's what we believe: The new cash-tip exemption won't drastically affect how much people tack onto their dining bills for service.
Now tell us all, what do you believe?
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