How Much More Do I Lose Playing NSUD Strategy at FPDW?

What are the changes in return when playing FPDW and NSUD if using the wrong strategies? In other words, using FPDW strategy when playing NSUD and vice versa?

[Editor's Note: First, for those who aren't familiar with the initialisms, FPDW means "Full Pay Deuces Wild" and has a 100.76% return with perfect play, while NSUD means "Not So Ugly Ducks" with a 99.73 return. Secondly, we handed this question off to Bob Dancer, who responds here.]

Here are the numbers, which should be used with a grain of salt.

	Using FPDW	Using NSU	Loss from Using Wrong Strategy
FPDW	100.76%	100.32%	0.44%
NSU	98.78%	99.73%	0.95%

While the numbers are accurate, they presume you play the strategies perfectly, which nobody does. These games are fairly easy to get “pretty close,” but basically impossible to get all of the exceptions correct.

Most of the errors come from two types of hands, neither of which is that difficult.

The first hand is dealt two pair, such as 7♠ 7♥ 8♣ 8♦ 4♠. When full houses return 3-for-1 (e.g. FPDW), hold either pair. When full houses return 4-for-1 (e.g. NSU), hold both pair.

The second type of hand is a 4-card flush versus a pair, such as 3♥ 9♥ K♥ A♥ 9♠. When flushes return 2-for-1 (e.g. FPDW), hold the pair. When flushes return 3-for-1 (e.g. NSU), hold the 4-flush.

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Comments

Bob Nelson Apr-26-2019

Question

Are the numbers in the bottom row of your table reversed?  Looks like it to me.

Brent Peterson Apr-26-2019

Re: Question

Or the headings of those 2 columns should read "Using Correct Strategy" and "Using Incorrect Strategy," respectively.

Brent Peterson Apr-26-2019

Two Types of Hands

What would the loss from using the wrong strategy be if the player were to use the correct strategy for the 2 types of hands where most errors come from? For example, when dealt two pair, holding either pair in FPDW, but both pair in NSUD. And when dealt a 4-card flush, hold the pair in FPDW, but the 4-flush in NSUD.

Jared Apr-26-2019

Percentages reversed

Yes, the percentages in the NSUD column are definitely reversed.

Kevin Lewis Apr-26-2019

Also...

Another significant difference that wasn't mentioned is how straight flush draws are treated in the two games, such as W79 or A34s. NSUD, you're more aggressive with those draws.

O2bnVegas Apr-26-2019

reversal of fortune

To simplify reading of the chart, insert "Playing" in the heading of the first column (instead of it being blank).

Reverse the NSU "Using" percentages in 2nd and 3rd columns.

The NSU "Loss from Using Wrong Strategy" percentage, 4th column, is already correct (per pencil and paper calculations...LOL).

Anthony Curtis Apr-26-2019

Table is Correct Now

Yes, two cells were reversed. Thanks for bringing to our attention and sorry for that error. It's correct now.

Question of the Day - 26 April 2019

Comments