Question of the Day - 29 June 2023

Is there a betting line on whether or not Brightline ever gets that train service running? Or a start date?

I’ll take the “no”/“over”.

For all of the criticism that Brightline receives, they're definitely doing better than California High Speed Rail, and Amtrack. Perhaps privatization isn't such a bad thing....

on the Cajon Pass. That's why "Southern California" really means "Victorville." And last I heard, for reasons not quite so clear, "Las Vegas" really means either "Primm" or "North Las Vegas." 

But of course if all else fails, I've heard of proposals to extend the Musk tunnel system to Los Angeles. Now there's a good, practical idea....

Most folks who don't live in So. Cal. may not know that Victorville is nowhere near L.A. It's about 85 miles from L.A., and the whole area around it is a plateau reached by going up an incline (Cajon Pass). Any train that doesn't begin in L.A. Union Station would not be practical to take. You would have to figure out how you're going to get from your city to Victorville, and then transfer to the train to get to Vegas. You'd have to make 2 itineraries instead of 1. And in the summer, Victorville, in the desert, is really hot. I say, "Forget it."  I want to leave L.A. and take 1 plane or train or bus or car, and not have to think about the itinerary once I have boarded, and I don't want to spend even 1 minute standing or sitting out in that hot sun. (If the train departure from Victorville were delayed, it would be much longer than that.) No thanks. I will only put up with 1 travel leg, so that means a plane, a bus, or (a new way for me now) my car.

I took Amtrak from L.A. (yes, L.A. Union Station) to Vegas once, and said "Never again". First, the train did not go straight there; it first went southeast to Orange County, then east to the "Inland Empire" before going north and being on track for Vegas. Second, there was only 1 track in each direction, and freight trains had priority, so Amtrak trains had to wait for them to come and go. Third, contrary to promo materials, there was no lounge car, so all the smokers hung out for long periods in the dining car, making it impossible for us nonsmokers to sit and try to enjoy food or beverage there. Fourth, the scheduled trip time was 8 hours but was longer due to delays and other things; for example, at one point out in the desert, the train stopped for 45 minutes before going again, and they said it was because the conductor saw something ahead that needed to be checked out. You would think that they could've checked it out, removed any object, and resumed travel in 5 minutes. Why 45?

We took the train from Chi to LV in 1994, less time than driving, but certainly more confined. Actually 3 routes were taken together. We had a stop in Denver for an hour or so and I think one of the routes was separated. We picked up many skiers who were dropped off at one of the ski resorts. Then we separated the last 2 routes at Salt Lake City. We departed the train at the back of the Union Plaza. It was an interesting experience, travelling with 3 kids, but with the special fares that they were offering at the time we saved quite a bit of money over airfare, which was important to us in those days. My parents lived in Vegas at the time and we stayed with them, too. We only did it once before they canceled the route, but I'm glad we did it. It was kinda fun, but not my favorite way to get to Vegas.

I've often wondered why the Vegas casinos haven't jumped on the bandwagon to have train service from LA to Vegas since it would undoubtedly bring lots of folks to Vegas. For years Harrah's and Boyd Gaming have financially supported charter flights from various cities around the country including Hawaii to Vegas in order the bring customers to their hotels and casinos. That same idea could apply to a modern train. Maybe the cost of train service from LA to LV would be too much or maybe the LV casinos couldn't get their act together and use their considerable influence to make this happen. Looks like everyone would win, look at the traffic every weekend between LA and LV. Once the construction cost of a train route was taken care of the operating cost would be manageable, especially in these days of billions in profit by all the casinos. Instead of building more casinos put that money into a high-speed, direct train service from SoCal to LV. 

Brightline has extended its original SoCal location to Rancho Cucamonga. So you don't need to drive to Victorville. It also connects to Metrolink from L.A.'s Union Station which is connected to subway and light rail lines throughout the L.A. area. It will have its own dedicated tracks so it won't be delayed by freight trains. The Vegas station will be near the I-15/I-215 interchange, adjacent to the NBA ready arena that Oak View Group plans to build. Brightline has also just been awarded $25 million to build 2 of the 4 planned stations on the line. A good omen for the $4 Billion they hope to get in September. They do have a history of completing projects. They just extended their Miami/Palm Beach line to Orlando.
While I do think it will be built. I wonder if it will be profitable. Airfares can be close to $100 or less round trip. It will likely rely on weekend passengers but if the experience is as pleasant as what I've read in Florida, it might be successful. 

Will absolutely KILL any railroad project between LA and LV before it has a chance to get a foothold in the market. As soon as schedules nad prices are announced for the choo-choo train you can BET Southwest and all other low-cost airlines with LV-LA routes to slash non-stop fares to a point that would make it ridiculous to take the choo-choo train. SW has what FIVE airports in LA area? So how many folks would rather take ANY train than a 30-45 minute plane ride for likely far less money? 

I took that Chicago/LV route at least three times cross-country in my life. In fact, I believe I did it twice from Harrisburg (PA) through Pittsburgh to Chicago and onward. I miss that route and being dropped off at the back of the Plaza. Amtrak had an option where you could, if you had a simple coach ticket, you could ask while on the train if a sleeper was available, say, from KC to Denver and that kind of thing. You negotiated with the conductor. If one was available, you could get it for 40%-50% of the regular rate for that portion of the trip.

I had one rugged experience in winter traveling back to Harrisburg. Three trains, including the Desert Wind, combined in Salt Lake City and then headed east. Snow storms badly delayed the Seattle train, so we were all delayed, and we wound up in a snowstorm in Chicago in the middle of the night. Amtrak got us hotel rooms, but one elderly guy died while in the hotel line waiting to check in that night.

Maybe so about the airlines lowering prices to avoid losing passengers to a SoCal-LV train. But there's a large segment of the public that absolutely hates the flying experience today, dealing with the TSA security crap, delayed flights, bad customer service, crowded flights with tiny cramped seats plus the fear of flying. There's so much of this airline hatred that a train service might have a good chance at success, especially considering the horrendous meltdowns Southwest and others have had in recent years with hundreds/thousands of flights cancelled, lots of ruined trips and vacations. There's a lot to be said for not having to fly, having a second choice available. And the train would benefit those that choose to fly with the lower airfares they will get.

All that extra time needed for TSA, boarding, deplaning, and that biggie: gotta get to the airport early, means that the train will probably be more convenient. Add legroom and it’s a no-brainer. 

Of course a lot will depend on where the stations are and how easy it will be to get to them. 

But I still take the no/over. 🤪

Ridership on Amtrak Desert Wind declined every year it operated. When Amtrak discontinued Desert Wind in 1997 it was carrying less than 1% of the visitors to Las Vegas from Utah and California. It's not a surprise less than 1% of the public chooses to travel by the most expensive, least convenient, slowest method.