How Does the Video Poker House Advantage Work?

I'm not totally clear on video poker house-advantage percentages. If every hand is played perfectly and every hand is truly random, then how can the house be guaranteed from the manufacturer of the machine a return of 2% +/- ?

[Editor's Note: As is our wont, we handed this video poker question off to Bob Dancer.]

Truly random doesn't mean unpredictable.

As an example, take a fair die, where each side has a different number between 1 and 6. (The word “fair” is synonymous for truly random.) If that die is rolled thousands of times with the results recorded, each of the six numbers will come out on top approximately 1/6 of the time. And the average of those rolls will be 3.5.

The die is random, and yet we know, over time, what the average result will be.

A video poker machine is more complicated than that, but the principle is the same. For any five cards dealt, a computer can figure out which of the 32 possible plays yields the most for a particular pay schedule. The computer can go through all 2.6 million possible starting hands, calculate the best play for each of them, and yield a total return for the game, assuming perfect play. (There are simplifying techniques so the program actually has to go through only about 130,000 hands instead of 2.6 million, but that’s a discussion for another day.)

When the computer does this, it will come out with an optimal return of 99.544% for 9/6 Jacks or Better, 98.981% for 9/6 Double Double Bonus, etc.

These are numbers that imply the players play perfectly, which of course doesn’t usually happen. So in addition to the return for perfect play, machine manufacturers typically include a best guess for actual play.

9/6 JoB is a simple game, so the game may return 99.0%. 9/6 DDB is a somewhat more difficult game typically played by lesser players than play 9/6 JoB (because the better players play the game that returns more), so that game may return 98.0%. Lesser pay schedules found on nickel games typically hold more than 2% less than they would be if they were played optimally.

So that’s how it is figured out. Part of it is “simple” math and part of it is actual experience in casinos.

But one word in your question was misleading: “guaranteed.” The returns for a given machine aren't guaranteed by a manufacturer. In the short run, machines may overhold or underhold quite a bit. Over time, however, the returns will approach what is predicted.

No part of this answer may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the publisher.

Have a question that hasn't been answered? Email us with your suggestion.

Missed a Question of the Day?

Have a Question?

Tomorrow's Question

Has Clark County ever considered legalizing prostitution?

Comments

Kevin Lewis Nov-17-2021

Occam's paytable

The simple answer is that like every casino game with a house advantage in the known universe, video poker machines make money for the casino by paying you less than true odds when you win.

rokgpsman Nov-17-2021

Play smarter, have a good time

Understanding how the odds favor the casino is sometimes difficult, but rest assured every game is designed to make money for the casino. From the game with the worst odds for the player (keno) to a game like craps that has a low casino edge they all earn money for the casino over the long run. There are winning players at every game, but many more that lose. The casino is like a broker, it takes money from players that lose, gives some of it to those that win and keeps the rest. For continued business there has to be some winners, this is what causes other players to try their luck. Sometimes there are opportunities on machines where the odds favor the player if you can play it nearly perfectly, or if you combine your play with slot club promotions. But for the most part you need to be lucky and play smart, learn the games and different ways to bet, avoid the ones that are really stacked against you.

Jerry Patey Nov-17-2021

Vp

There is no random number. It is manufactured but really not random. We can predict video poker return based on pay table. Not 100 % accurate. As you say it is with perfect play. Also despite what they say vp machines do have hot and cold cycles. Some people set at machine for hours. I personally move around to try to hit the hit cycles. It works for me. I am still playing on my original money stash for gambling. I do not study for that extra .4%. I  think I play at 99.3 level. Slits are a different story. You have to take casino word and results reported to gaming commission. I have not been able to find results for slots. I wish this newsletter would chase this info down

Eileen Nov-17-2021

WSOP

If the WSOP is being held at Bally's/Paris in 2022 does that mean Bally's probably won't be sold by Caesars?

Anthony Curtis Nov-17-2021

Cycles?

Video poker machines don't have exploitable cycles. You can call something you've seen happen a cycle if you want, but there's no actionable strategy to be gleaned.

rokgpsman Nov-17-2021

Random events are unpredictable

You can watch the board on a roulette table showing the past spins and convince yourself the marble has cycles or streaks. That's why the casino puts that board there. But trying to predict spins won't work, you'll lose. Every marble spin is completely separate and indepedent from previous spins. Same as you flipping a coin. Lots of people have tried to come up with a winning strategy to roulette and no one has ever done it. You can only see a streak or cycle AFTER it is over. That doesn't help you predict what's going to happen. There are hundreds of casinos all over the world. If it was possible to predict a streak and make winning bets based on past outcomes someone would have already done it. This is true for games like slot machines, roulette, keno and craps. Blackjack is different because you get to see cards as they are removed from the deck. This lets you know what types of cards are still left in the deck. Lots of high value cards is good for the player and can be exploited.

Question of the Day - 17 November 2021

Comments