Are Video Poker Machines Pre-Set To Be Hot or Cold?

My wife and I love video poker, but take very different approaches to the game. She doesn't accept that hands are randomly dealt independent events. She believes that machines are pre-set to be hot (or not) on any given day and machine-hops trying to find one that has been “set to pay out.” I play for hours on my machine of choice (based mostly on pay schedule) whether or not a particular session is profitable. Recently, playing side by side at a Strip casino, I went on a mini hot streak, hitting several four-of-a-kinds during a brief stretch of Bonus Poker. After I finished play, she stayed and continued at her machine. She says that I was barely out of my seat when a casino employee swooped in, opened my machine, and worked on the inside for a few minutes. She's convinced that the technician was “cooling off” my machine, because it was paying out too much. What is your take?

Unless the slot tech was installing cooling pads, ice packs, or cold bricks, we doubt that he or she was "cooling off" your machine. Frankly, we don't know why the tech opened it up, but it wasn't to "turn a screw" or reprogram the machine on the fly.

We've addressed this question many many times, but it is, admittedly, a difficult concept to grasp and it keeps coming up in different forms. That said, the answer is always the same: Video poker machines must be based on a random deal from a complete 52-card deck, 53 if there’s a joker. The key word here is random, which precludes a video poker machine from doing anything but dealing out unplanned hands every round.

Now, conceivably, VP machines could be programmed with "hot and cold cycles," but that would essentially constitute rigging the game: One player might come in at the beginning of a programmed down cycle and lose his shirt, while another player might come in at the beginning of an up cycle and win the moon.

Yes, this sometimes happens anyway, but since every hand is the result of a random deal, the cycles, too, are random functions of luck -- or what mathematicians refer to as "variance" or "fluctuation."

In the end, a machine gets to its specified rate with play volume, strictly in accordance with its pay schedule.

Let’s take a 9/6 Jacks or Better schedule, the full-pay version of this game, with an expected return of 99.54%. The more hands you play, the closer the machine will get to returning $99.54 for every $100 you put through it -- with perfect play.

Now, compare that to the 8/5 version of Jacks or Better, with an expected return of 97.3%. The more hands you play, the closer the machine will get to returning $97.30 for every $100 put through, assuming perfect play. Then there are the 7/5 and 6/5 versions, with an expected return of 96.15% and 95%, respectively.

This explains one of the attractions of video poker for the player: Simply by reading the pay schedule, which is posted on the face of every machine, you can determine what the return rates will be in the long term against perfect play. You can’t do that for slot machines.

So back to the original question: The machines in Nevada and similarly regulated jurisdictions aren't programmed with streaks. For all intents and purposes, that would be cheating.

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Comments

Kevin Rough Apr-04-2024

You'll never convince them

Some people love a conspiracy and you'll never convince them otherwise.

Dave Apr-04-2024

QUESTION FOR THE WIFE

If she really believes in her theory so much, why didn't she switch machines once you got up and left?

vegasnow Apr-04-2024

Cheating is Unnecessary

The games are already “rigged” in the casinos favor via the set pay schedule. No need for the casinos to cheat on top of that and since they would lose their lucrative casino license if caught, they just wouldn’t want or need to risk manipulating the machines this way.

Gregory Apr-04-2024

Machine hopping....

A couple years back I was at the El Cortez for a 4 day stay.  They had a selection of $ VP machines back by where Subway used to be. The AC was nuts and it was blowing 65 degree air right on a group of machines I would have preferred to play.  In order to escape the windchill, I was pretty much forced to spend most of my time on one single machine.  In that 4 day period, I hit 2 Royal Flushes and four Aces with a kicker (DDB) along with a mix of other wins.  I haven't tried this strategy since, but camping out at a single machine for several days turned out to be profitable.

Kevin Lewis Apr-04-2024

Moron du jour

Anyone who believes those idiotic conspiracy theories needs to be led gently away from the casino and given a glass of warm milk and some cookies.

Deke Castleman Apr-04-2024

This in via email

you could have added that the machine is shuffling the 52 cards and when the deal button is hit 5 cards are dealt. The remainder of the 47 cards are still shuffling. When the draw button is hit the cards that were discarded are filled with the cards. The constant shuffle helps to keep the randomness. So its timing by the millisecond when u hit the buttons of what you get! This is what Ive seen/heard for years how the game is dealt.

Ronald Kaim Apr-04-2024

slot/video poker machines

I've been going to Vegas since 1975 and border state of Texas for about 10 years to gamble.  I've heard everything about the slots/video poker, they are regulated, they don't set the machines, it's a conspiracy theory that casinos make the machines hot or cold and etc.  they may not set the machines to win or lose, but it seems since the mid 90's, especially at Boyd and Caesars properties, people are not winning as much as they use to prior to the mid 90's.  Just my opinion based on what I've seen.

Hoppy Apr-04-2024

Unfair Advantage

Putting the Discards back into the deck? Even an astute player would not expect that! That gives the Casino an unfair advantage.

AL Apr-05-2024

Hot or cold machines?

Actually, except for rare situations, VP machines are hot or cold, but rather are always at room temperature.

Question of the Day - 04 April 2024

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