Question of the Day - 27 June 2020

[Editor's Note: He certainly can and he did in today's answer.]

My comparative expertise in the two games, blackjack and video poker, is the reverse of Arnold Snyder's. Here's what I'd like to say about the volatility of video poker. 

In video poker, you get to choose the level of volatility you like. The most common measure used is variance. I’ll leave the mathematical definition to others, but the lower the variance of a given game, the less of a bankroll you need to survive the gambling swings. The higher variance, the bigger swings you experience.

The least volatile video poker game is Jacks or Better, where the variance is 19.5. A similar game, but more volatile, is Double Bonus, with a variance of 28. Still more volatile is Double Double Bonus, with a variance of 42, and Triple Double Bonus, with a variance of 98.

The features of Jacks or Better that make the volatility so low are two pair pays 2-for-1 and 4-of-a-kinds pay not very much. Four-of-a-kinds are relatively rare hands (perhaps one every 420 games, depending). If these hands pay not so much, it doesn’t hurt too badly when you get a less-than-average number of them and it doesn’t help all that much when you get extra 4-of-a-kinds.

The features of Double Double Bonus that make its volatility so much higher is that all 4-of-a-kinds (especially aces) pay quite a bit more than you get in Jacks or Better and two pair returns 1-for-1.

You’re going to get about the right number of two-pair hands (about one in 10 hands, depending) simply because they happen so often. Although 2-for-1 doesn’t sound like that big of a difference compared to 1-for-1, it’s an extra five coins every 10 hands. Play a session of 2,000 hands (perhaps two hours for a fast player), and just this difference in two pair accounts for 1,000 coins. It definitely adds up.

Another name for volatility is “excitement.” Some players consider Jacks or Better boring, while the players who like Jacks or Better consider Double Double Bonus too scary. You’ll have to decide for yourself how much excitement you want.

Any of these games can come with one or more progressives. A progressive on the royal flush typically starts at 4,000 coins and goes up. A game that starts at 97% will have a return of 99% when the royal gets to 8,000 coins. And as the amount of the royal increases, so does the volatility.

Every one of these video poker games come in loose versions (where the player receives a good gamble) and tight versions (where the casino is holding way too much for it to be a fair gamble.) How to tell the difference between versions of video poker games is a discussion for another day.

Let’s go back to the original question: Is blackjack or video poker more volatile? I’m assuming blackjack variations all have approximately the same variance. (If this isn’t true, Arnold Snyder would be an expert who could set us straight. As would Anthony Curtis.)

The video poker game with the least volatility (Jacks or Better with a 4,000-coin royal flush) is approximately equally volatile to blackjack. All other forms of video poker are more volatile -- and you can pick the volatility you want.

Keep in mind that volatility is only one component of choosing a game. The rules of a blackjack game are important as are the particular pay schedule of a video poker game. How much the casino pays you to play (i.e. through the slot club and promotions) is also important.