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Question of the Day - 07 December 2024

Q:

I play a lot of low-stakes video poker at my local casino and I'm always wondering if there's a best time to get up and leave. When I'm ahead? When I'm a certain amount behind? Can you run through the pros and cons of when to quit at a certain point in my play? 

A:

Excellent question. 

And for the answer, we turn to an article that Jean Scott wrote for Strictly Slots way back in 1999. This piece delves into when and why to change machines before your session is over, but ends up addressing the money aspects raised in the question. 

Take it, Jean. 

Although it’s a basic query, the answer is not so straightforward. For years, I’ve been compiling a list of answers to the question of “when to walk.” I find that they fall into three main categories: mathematical, common sensical, and emotional.

In the first category, math tells you when to walk. Serious students of gambling and professionals, whose main interest is profit, will tell you to walk away from a negative-expectation game even before you drop in a single coin. However, the goal of casual players is entertainment; they’re looking mainly at the fun factor. They’re hoping for the big win and depending on luck. Still, math can still be their ally. They can “walk” often, bouncing from machine to machine with wild abandon. The more time they spend changing machines instead of actually playing them, the less they'll lose. The money they don’t lose is money won!

Another time to walk is when a promotion — one that made a bad or so-so play a good one — ends. We’ve played many negative-expectation games when a promotion transformed the casino edge into an advantage for the player. One example of this is when a players club offers triple points during Monday Night Football. However, when the triple-point session is over, we’re out of there faster than you can say, “From all of us here at ABC, goodnight.”

In the common-sense category, do yourself a favor and quit when you’re hungry, tired, or need a bathroom break. When you haven’t eaten for a long time, your blood sugar drops and you can’t think clearly. When your eyes start to blur from staring too long at a video screen or spinning reels and when your shoulders, arms, and back start to burn from sitting too long in the same position, you won't be making wise decisions. 

Also, feel free to change machines or end your session when the environment isn't healthy or comfortable. I often have to change machines when the air-conditioning is blasting Arctic air directly down on my already-aching neck and shoulders. Another typical “move” situation comes when the smoke from the cigarette of the person right beside me is drifting straight into my poor allergy-suffering sinuses. You may want to move if the seat is uncomfortable, your neighbor is a constant complainer or button pounder, the machine you’re playing has a fuzzy or jumpy screen that gives you a headache, a sticky video poker button causes you to make mistakes on your card holding, or your partner wants you to quit and join him or her in a non-gambling activity.

When you’ve lost the money you budgeted for that particular gambling session, walking means straight out of the casino, into your car, and out of the parking lot or straight to your hotel room. There should be no side trips to the cage to cash a check or to the ATM machine to lay your hands on money that you had earmarked for other purposes.

The third category, emotions, is much harder to pin down. Temperamental factors don't worship at the altar of mathematics and are usually unconcerned about good sense, so this is a much more personal. The following aren’t universal “reasons,” because they’re often unreasonable to other people.

But it is often a good idea to walk when you reach your personal win/loss limit. There is no absolute mathematical rule here. But say you previously decided to change machines when you won $100. You win the $100 and you not only don’t quit, but you subsequently lose that $100. You’ve launched yourself into that disquieting “if-I’d-only” territory. Quit when you win that $100 even if you just move to the next machine that looks exactly the same. You may lose the $100 at almost the same rate, but that internal broken record playing “if” in your head won’t drive you quite so crazy.

How about when you’re losing and it’s really getting to you? A slot player on tilt is tempted to chase losses by increasing the number of credits per hand, becoming even more frustrated as the losses pike up even faster. A video poker player may sacrifice the advantage of the “long term” and deviate from the computer-prescribed strategy, hoping for short-term success. Even pros and frequent players who understand volatility and have learned how to take the ups and downs of gambling will change machines if they get psyched out by a long losing streak that starts to affect accuracy and speed. A fresh start on a new machine gives video poker players a chance to take a break, stretch their bodies, and rest their minds; feeling better emotionally, they’ll again be able to play faster with less likelihood of making errors. Slot players as well can benefit from a refreshing break before jumping back into the fray.

Another time is when you’ve been up and down for a long period of playing time and finally get even or up a little. Being on a gambling roller coaster is an exhilarating but exhausting ride and sometimes leaving even, or even with a small loss, will make you feel like a big winner, especially if you’ve climbed out of a hole dug at the beginning of your play. I often say, “My nerves just can't take another elevator ride to the basement today.”

When you win a jackpot is a valid emotional reason for many people to walk: It’s fun to celebrate! The joy of winning is a universal human emotion. What we're all looking for is the jackpot! There's no bigger thrill for the machine player than a royal flush or the top-of-the chart payoff. Stop and savor the feeling. Go somewhere to eat with your partner and talk about every little detail that led up to this jackpot. Go shopping and splurge with some of the jackpot money. Even if it’s not a large life-changing win, stop and take a little walk and smile at everyone to share your happiness.

Finally, when you’re getting bored or you just aren’t having fun combines common sense and emotion. The tiny group of pros who make their living at the casino machines may have to put in their eight or ten or twelve hours a day, seven days a week, whether they’re enjoying or hating every minute of it. But for the rest of us, gambling is entertainment. And when we aren’t having fun at our machine, we need to walk.

 

No part of this answer may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the publisher.

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Comments

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  • Vegas Fan Dec-07-2024
    Jean Scott
    Is the best writer!

  • thebeachbum Dec-07-2024
    Wise in Her Years
    "The money they don’t lose is money won!”  All good advice.  I should follow it.  But…...

  • Cal Dec-07-2024
    When to walk
    Luck is a four-letter word.

  • Reno Faoro Dec-07-2024
    EVEN
    'WHY DOES A GAMBLER GAMBLE' ??    TO GET EVEN , AMEN .

  • SCOTT Dec-07-2024
    Love Jean's Articles
    And something Jean has said in the past that wasn't in this article- "Breaking even is a beautiful thing."

  • Jon Miller Dec-07-2024
    I forget the term for this...
    But I've always found an effective strategy at the blackjack table is, when on a good run, to pull back my starting buy in and segregating it i front of me, or better yet, start putting green and hopefully black chips in my pocket, continuing to play with "house money".  Rinse, wash, repeat.   When I do finally lose my initial buy in, which is inevitable, there are sessions I walk away with 2-3x my buy in.  I think it's called 'Rat Holing" os some such term.  And I'm quite sure the pit bosses ultimately hate people like me :P.  Dealers always like me because I bet with them on those runs!     That would be a fun QOD:  tipping strategies both from players perspective and hearing what the dealers think about us betting for them v. straight tipping along the way v. tipping out at end of sessions, etc.

  • sunny78 Dec-07-2024
    another option
    Or why not just play vp on an app or online with no money involved that play and look like the real thing in a casino? For low stakes play in a casino, mostly $1.25 per hand, the odds of losing are high to chase the far outside chance of winning a royal flush that's only $1000. Why not just play for the fun of it for such low win odds potential? Air is less smokey too. To see the words "on paper" like play just to stay even, the money you don't lose is the money won, sure makes it all sound silly.

  • jay Dec-07-2024
    What %%
    My stock trading course taught me to establish a %% that I wanted to make. So when you make a buy, you immediately set a sell order. Don’t fall in love with a stock. If it sells, re-evaluate if you would buy in again at the new valuation.  Table games are the same. If you are prepared to risk $200, is your profit 50% ($100). If so put it in your pocket and walk away: if you’re playing for entertainment- keep the profit and buy in again. 

  • Gene Brown Dec-07-2024
    Pondering 
    Those that know the perfect winning technique don’t even gamble. The problem with most of us is that we think that we know…and the casino industry just keeps on building and growing. You already know that but I’m just saying…

  • Hoppy Dec-07-2024
    Being Drawn
    I always have a picnic cooler waiting for me in my automobile.  Many times it has drawn my away....

  • Hoppy Dec-07-2024
    Oops!
    Should have been 'drawn me away'

  • SCOTT Dec-07-2024
    Pinkys at Paris?
    I know this is the wrong article for this column, but isn't Pinkys by Vanderpump opening at the Flamingo, not Paris?

  • AL Dec-07-2024
    when to quit playing VP
    I'm buttressing Jean's mention of using common sense to decide when to quit playing VP, but I'm also adding some phenomenology.  My experience has shown that a large minority of the time, your meter stays close to what it was when you started playing; the rest of the time, it will go noticeably higher or lower than your start figure. For those times when it goes higher, it will inevitably be eventually followed by a downturn (of course, we can't know when), so you can either (1) switch machines when you've gotten a chosen profit, or (2) stay at the machine and experience the downturn, which will erase your profit. So you should switch when you're ahead by a chosen amount. If, instead, it begins by going down noticeably, don't leave at a certain loss-point (because you'd just be locking in a loss), but rather, stay at the machine so that you will get its eventual upturn, and likely get back to break-even. When you get to break-even, change machines THEN, because a downturn will come.

  • Deke Castleman Dec-07-2024
    Scott
    Right you are. We mixed up the new Pinky's at the Flamingo with Vanderpump a Paris at Paris. Fixed now and thank you for the eagle eye. 
    

  • O2bnVegas Dec-07-2024
    Walk...far away!
    Jean Scott talks of the effect of emotion, and the usefullness of "walking" after a win, or better still after a loss. I find it useful, if I still want to play, to "walk" far far away in the casino, especially after chasing and losing on a machine.  That way I don't 'see' another player sit down at 'my' machine and immediately hit a big one. That's a real downer.
    
    Candy