Question of the Day - 26 September 2024

Here's how I would answer it. A hard 16, which is what you would have if you refused to split your 8s, is more than twice as bad, in terms of winning percentage, as a hard 8. While I don't recall the exact numbers, if memory serves, a hard 16 vs. a dealer 10 will win 26% of the time, assuming you make the best play if you don't split, which is to hit (standing will only win 23% of the time). By contrast, a hard 8 wins 39-40% of the time (the higher number applies if you can double after splitting, which you would do if you got a 3 on one or both 8s). Winning 40% of 2X is better than winning 26% of X. Ignoring pushes for the sake of simplicity, a 40% win percentage translates to an expected loss of 20% of your bet. A 26% win percentage translates to an expected loss of 48% (74 - 26) of your bet. So for an original bet of, say, $100, it's better to lose 20% of $200 ($40) than 48% of $100 ($48).

This is true against any upcard, albeit with different loss percentages. (Surrender vs. A.)

In short, the result of following the computer-derived basic strategy is based on two possibilities:  winning more or losing less.  The latter is the case with splitting 8s against a dealer 10, it's a losing situation, but as Kevin notes, you'll lose less.

If you play Basic Strategy, follow it.  If you’re just playing to be playing don’t split your 8’s.

I think today's original answer was more understandable to the person who posed the question than Kevin's.

You will lose less in the long run, and that is it. 

I always play basic strategy.  I also make judicious use of surrender (specifically if I have a hard 16 v the dealers 10).  I thought that was the one time “the book” says to surrender.  Am I reading the response above incorrectly?  Or am I incorrect?   Thanks. And I enjoyed Kevin’s further breakdown of the percentages BTW thanks for that further insight. 

16 sucks!

Kevin L - that was an amazing answer.  To simply say ‘because the computer says so’ does nothing to educate the player into the math supporting that answer.  Thanks for adding the missing details as it makes it both easier to understand and accept the facts behind the answer.

This is actually the correct answer, in terms of being practical, and knowing what you should do.

Reminds me of a time when I was sitting at a blackjack table, arguing with the player next to me about whether the exotic side wager was a good bet or not.  I'm a CPA, so I understood the math that made it a bad bet, but I couldn't make this guy see the logic of it.  Finally, I resorted to, "You know how you know it's a bad bet -- because the casino is offering it!!!"

Who cares about the details of why one loses less? When one is sitting at the table, there's a clear "best" or "best of the worst" play and that's all that one should care about. Follow basic strategy as someone mentioned, someone already did the math. 

Though perhaps there's a type of player who cares about the details because one wants to be reminded that gambling is largely a losers pastime maybe and losing less is exciting?  

When, after splitting 8s, the first card you receive is a 5. :(

According to Wong's Professional BJ, standing on 8-8 versus dealer's 10 in a 6-deck, H17 game gives a 53.7% edge to the house, which is a just a 23% chance (not 26%) for the player to win. The other hard 16 totals have very little difference from the 53.7%.  This makes sense since the basic strategy play is to surrender any hand where the casino edge is greater than 50%.

 Since I do not play Blackjack very much, I prefer not to split 8's because one bad hand is enough and splitting seems to always end up with two bad hands for me. And it always seems that the dealer is always sitting on 20, or draws out to 17,18,19,20,or 21. Therefore, I hope that the dealer busts out and makes me look like a genius (rarely happens). To those who play a lot of Blackjack - follow basic strategy, you will lose less in the long run. Good luck as you gamble.

Should you not surrender with 8s against an Ace when dealer hits on soft 17 if allowed, except in a single deck game? Although I am not even going to try to figure out exactly why a single deck game would be different. This would hurt my brain! I was aware that surrendering was the right choice against an Ace when the dealer hits soft 17. I checked the Wizard's chart on a single deck game. But maybe Anthony can explain the difference. I think explanations like this help us play better. It helps you remember. Maybe someday I'll remember when playing a single deck, dealer hits soft 17 game to NOT surrender now that I checked.