Saturday, March 27, was date night for Bonnie and me. We decided to go dancing to Wes Winters in the Grandview Lounge at the South Point and then have dinner afterwards. Wes Winters is our old “standby,” and we go there two or three times a month. I guess we’re semi-regulars.
Dinner was going to be nothing special. We had lots of food coupons to spend at the Silverton (three miles away from the South Point). These coupons were going to expire in a week so we were probably going to spend $35 worth of them in the coffee shop at the Silverton. It’s a nice-enough meal, but it’s not like we were looking forward all day to the delicious dinner there.
Usually Wes Winters plays 6-9 p.m. on Friday and Saturday evenings, but the Grandview is a sports lounge and sometimes he gets pre-empted for a popular game. We called ahead and on this particular night he was going to be playing about 8:30-10:30 (NCAA Basketball playoffs) so we got there just before the first song.
I noticed the “March Money Madness” progressives were at $24,100 and $1,900 when we arrived. The first one had to go off before $25,000 and anyone playing when it hit received $25 in free play. The second one had to go off before $2,500. I noted that both were probably going to be hit in the next few hours, but my chances of hitting them were pretty small and it would take a bigger promotion than that to interfere with date night.
We were ready to leave a little over an hour later. We had danced 2/3 of the songs and that was enough. I dropped a few bucks into Wes’s tip jar, and we waved goodnight to him on our way out. He was in the middle of a song so he just kind of nodded. Now the progressives were at $24,320 and $2,010.
I pointed out those numbers to Bonnie (she probably hadn’t noticed them previously) and asked if I could drop her off at home and come back to play. (We live maybe ten minutes away.) She was fine with that. Going dancing was the most important part of the “date” to her and she had heard my explanations of the March Money Madness promotion enough times in my classes and radio show that she understood the gist of it. Plus I told her that I’d be playing on both her card and mine (which is allowed at the South Point) so as to qualify for the $25 bonus on two cards instead of just one. She also liked the possibility that the extra play might get her a better mailer.
As soon as we got home, we put some leftovers from a previous casino meal into the microwave and I ate “dinner” on my drive back to the casino. The meter was at $24,400 when I arrived back at about 10 p.m. and the smaller meter was about $2,200.
This was a regular point day (meaning 0.30%). My two relevant choices of games to play were NSU Deuces Wild (99.73%) which can be played single line from 25 cents to $2, or 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads (99.65%), which can be played 25 cents to $1 per line on a Triple Play, Five Play, or Ten Play 6-coins-per-line basis.
My decision could have gone the other way, but this time I picked Quick Quads. The return was a little lower than NSU, but I enjoy Quick Quads more. During double point days, I play the $1 Ten Play Quick Quads for $60 per play. I have the advantage and want to get as much coin-in as I can. Here the advantage came from the progressives, not the game itself. I decided on 25 cents Ten Play at $15 per play.
The main reason I chose quarters instead of dollars was that I didn’t want the time required in processing W2Gs to decrease my chances of winning the progressives. It takes five minutes or so to get paid for a W2G and since the progressives were going to be hit “any second now,” I decided to play for the lesser amount. The chance to hit “the big one” was more valuable than the guaranteed $25 if I was playing anyway, so I didn’t want to lose out on the chance.
At 11 p.m. the larger progressive was at $24,500 and rising. I was still going strong. Usually when I’m going to play during these hours I take a nap earlier in the afternoon. That didn’t happen on this day because I wasn’t planning on playing late. I was tired, but I knew it had to hit within the next few hours and I could make it.
The larger progressive appeared on the iView display of each machine every several minutes. The smaller progressive wasn’t shown. The smaller progressive would be nice to hit, but its presence was irrelevant to me being there. While the smaller progressive would likely be very close to $2,500 before it hit, assuming 500 people were playing, that is only $5 equity per person. And there was no $25 consolation prize paid on the small progressive. Still, if the casino could list both progressive amounts that would probably increase the excitement for some players.
The larger progressive was a different story. A 1-in-500 chance to hit $25,000 meant my equity was $50 apiece, plus the $25 in free play. I figured my equity was about $150 since I was playing on two cards, and I was playing essentially an even game (99.65% + 0.30% slot club + maybe slightly better mailers or comps because of the increased play). Even if better mailers or comps didn’t materialize, I was playing about $10,000 per hour total between the two machines so the 99.95% game was costing me $5 per hour. And it couldn’t go on for too many hours because the progressive had to hit soon.
At midnight, the progressive was up to $24,620. I noticed it had slowed down some. That was because people who play during “normal hours” were finding that it was time to go to bed. That meant that it would take a little longer to reach whatever number it was going to, but my equity would be higher because at that point there were maybe only 400 people playing rather than 500. Personally, if at all possible I would NEVER go home when a progressive was that close to the limit. Clearly other people have different priorities.
Slightly after 1 a.m. it went off. Both my iView screens showed I had earned a $25 free play bonus. This was the expected result, although I could have been the one to hit it. And the only way to have a chance at it was to be playing at the time. Okay. Time to go home. As I cashed out and headed to the exit, I noticed that there wasn’t a mad exodus to leave. The progressives were why I was there, but for most of the players, the progressives were not the primary reason to be there. I didn’t notice where the lower progressive was. Even if it was still active at, say, $2,400 and I knew it was going to hit before $2,500, there were too many people playing for my chances to be worth very much. Plus I was tired.
It turned out I played $15,000 coin-in on each card — earning $90 in free play. My expected loss on that much play was $105 (meaning a loss of $15 after you include the free play.) Fortunately, I ended up several hundred dollars ahead. Not because I’m a good player but because this game is pretty volatile. Earlier in the month I played during double points on St. Patrick’s Day and lost several thousand dollars playing for four times the stakes. Those are just normal swings for this game. Winning at lower stakes and losing at larger stakes isn’t a way to end up ahead of the game, but sometimes it happens that way in the short run.
While my result was better than average, it also took longer than I expected for the progressive to hit. You never know what your results will be beforehand, but I knew it was an even game and I was going to collect $25 apiece to play — and I might get lucky.