Frank Kneeland, my co-host on my “Gambling with an Edge” radio show on Thursday evenings, primarily plays video poker progressives. He and I challenged ourselves to come up with a type of progressive that is good for the player and profitable for the house. And we wanted to avoid the boom-or-bust cycle that makes a progressive playable very occasionally for a very short period of time — and then unplayable for weeks until the progressive built back up again. And the biggest challenge, of course, was to convince a casino to put this sucker in after we designed it.
We think we succeeded on all accounts, and the launch day will soon be upon us. The new-fangled progressives will be found in the very near future at the M casino for both quarters (20 machines) and dollars (10 machines). This notice is a little bit early (The electronic parts to make this work are not “on the shelf.” It will take some time to make these progressives work, and the slot director there is working diligently on), but it WILL happen soon and you’ll need to do some homework to get ready for it.
These progressives are different than most of you have seen before. Let me tell you about them. The progressives start off with some pretty tight games, namely:
16-13 Deuces Wild 96.765%
15-7 Kings or Better Joker Wild 96.744%
6-5 Bonus Poker 96.869%
8-5 Double Double Bonus Poker 96.786%
9-6-4 Double Bonus 96.375%
6-5 Super Double Bonus 96.871%
7-5 Jacks or Better 96.147%
7-5 Bonus Poker Deluxe 96.253%
The percentages you are seeing refer to the return on the games at reset — namely 4,000 coins. Games this tight are usually only played with a 4,000 royal by the clueless (or nickel players, who regularly see games like this. And, please pardon the stereotype, but many nickel players are clueless). While there are a lot of clueless players, it usually takes a while for the royals to build up. But not here.
The progression rate for the games is 4.0% — which is higher than you’ve likely seen before. (And when you add a 4.0% meter to games that return more than 96% at base — this adds up to more than 100% — with full slot club points and benefits). But it’s a different sort of 4.0% than you’re used to as well. The meters are all separate — namely the Deuces Wild dollar meter could be at $13,200, while the Joker Wild meter could be at $12,800, while the Double Double Bonus meter could be at $10,700, down to the Bonus Poker meter (which was just hit in our example), is barely over $4,000. The 4.0% consists of 0.5% to each of the eight separate royal flush meters.
Most smart players would be playing the Deuces Wild game (which currently returns 101.5%) or the Joker Wild game (which currently returns slightly more than 101%). The Double Double Bonus game returns “only” 100.8%, but that’s still very playable if that’s the game you prefer. (Or perhaps the only game you know). These returns are in addition to the casino’s 0.30% cash back — with some 2x and 3x multiplier days thrown in — not to mention larger-than-average mailers, more frequent-than-average casino gifts, and free buffets daily when you play to a certain level.
Let’s say you’re playing the Deuces Wild game. Every $1,000 of coin-in you or anybody else plays adds $5 to the meter of each of the eight games. What this means is that none of the progressives can stay at reset. Even if nobody is playing the Bonus Poker game because it’s barely above $4,000, the value of the royal flush on that game keeps rising with every dollar bet on any of the other seven games. By the time the Deuces Wild game is hit, all of the meters might have increased by $300 or $400.
At this time players shift to the Joker Wild game — or Double Double Bonus — or one of the others that is rising along with them. The Bonus Poker meter is now at $4,400 and the Deuces Wild meter is at $4,000. By the time another royal is hit, the Bonus Poker meter might be up to $4,800 and the Deuces Wild meter will be up to $4,400. Not so long thereafter, both of these games will also be in the “playable” ranges.
With 4.0% going to the meter, we’re expecting $10,000+ meters on the dollar games to be a “virtually all of the time” event, and $12,000 and $14,000 meters to be “not so rare.” If you’re more comfortable thinking in terms of quarter meters, these numbers will be $2,500, $3,000, and $3,500 on a regular basis. You almost never see progressives this high anywhere else, but at the M it will be an everyday event.
So if you show up, the games will be there (the actual launch date will be announced on our radio show, Thursdays 7-8 p.m. KLAV 1230AM in Las Vegas or streamed at www.KLAV1230AM.com everywhere, archived at www.bobdancer.com/radio.cfm, and announced on vpFREE, and on LVA.com. If you’re looking for it, you’ll find it. The slot director’s “best guess” is that the progressives will be ready to go early next week).
The M is located at the southern edge of the Las Vegas valley. It’s a fairly long drive for most Las Vegas players. But if you know that there’s going to be a good game to play whenever you show up, it’s worth it. Driving 20 miles to find out that the progressives aren’t very high wouldn’t be something you’d be willing to do very often. But now you know that there will be a good game to play every time you show up — you just don’t know which one it will be until you get there.
You’re going to need to get ready for this. Unless you’re somebody who specializes in progressives, you don’t know how to play these games with a royal at 12,000 coins. (I actually know none of these games at that level. I’m a video poker professional, but this is not the area of my expertise. Until now there has never been a reason to learn these kinds of strategies).
Learning eight new games is going to take you awhile. If this strikes you as a good opportunity, I recommend you get busy learning strategies for these games. Not at the 4,000-coin level, but rather at the 12,000-coin level. If you know a couple of the games at that level, you can “fake it” on some of the others, but faking it typically costs you half a percent or more. While the progressives may very well be high enough so that you still have the edge if you give up half a percent, you’re giving up $20 an hour if you’re a fast dollar player. If you’re going to be doing this a lot, it seems better to me to go ahead and work out the strategies.
The “price” Kneeland and I charged the M for bringing them this suggestion is a premier sponsorship of our radio program. We will be posting 12,000-coin strategies for each of the games — approximately one of these per week. You can use our strategies or create your own.
It’s important to discuss the variance on these games. Variances of 160 — 180 will not be uncommon when you’re playing these high progressives. These are extremely high. Between royals you will lose at a very fast clip. What this means is if you’re not the player who hits the royal this time, you’ll have lost quite a bit of money trying for it. If you play enough of these, eventually you’ll hit your share of royal flushes — but you need to be able to survive the swings in order to get to “eventually.”
The underlying games average 96.5% or so, and when the royal is high, it’s appropriate to play aggressively for the royal, which will take the base game down to 95% or so. That is, in Bonus Poker at a 4,000 royal, from K♥ Q♥ J♥ K♠ 3♦ it’s appropriate to hold the kings. When the royal gets big enough, it’s better to hold the hearts. While this gives you a 1-in-1,081 chance of hitting the royal right now, the price is you’re giving up the guaranteed five coins you would have received if you held the pair of kings.
Most of the progressive teams in the past would lock up all the games in a particular bank of machines and play until the progressive was hit. Here they can’t do this because there will “always” be a good progressive to play. If teams only went home when there were no good plays, once they showed up at the M they could never leave!
If you normally play for dollars, I recommend you start on these games for quarters until you get an appreciation for the swings. If you are someone who lives from one Social Security check to the next, I suggest you avoid these games altogether — or set some kind of limit (perhaps $100 or less per week). These games can definitely “eat up” the under-financed.
But if you can learn the strategies and survive the swings, these games can be quite lucrative. Even if you don’t learn the strategies well, we expect a lot of players to take periodic pot shots at the games. A $14,000 dollar royal looks mighty tempting to a lot of players.