Richard Munchkin and I regularly get “how do you do it” questions which we periodically answer on our podcast. Sometimes I have to give a briefer answer than I want on the air because a more complete answer requires that people see things written down. Plus, my blog is read primarily by players who understand the basics of video poker. The podcast is geared more towards players who play a variety of games with an advantage.
So today we’ll look at two recent questions I received at [email protected].
1. I was practicing NSU Deuces on the Video Poker for Winners software and I ran into this hand: W W 4♦ 6♦K♣.
I held the W W 4♦ 6♦. Video Poker for Winners said I made an error and I should have only held the deuces.
However, your strategy card for NSU Deuces says that I hold a Straight Flush 4 with one gap (SF4 -1) and that is what I had chosen.
Unless I am mis-reading your strategy card, which is possible, which strategy should I follow? I am following your Level 4 Advanced NSU strategy on the card.
Understanding someone else’s notation includes a learning curve. This is a situation where you are misunderstanding SF4-1. In the two-deuce section of the strategy card, it refers to hands with one inside, which is not synonymous with one gap. While all gaps are insides, not all insides are gaps. Specifically, if the combination is close enough to the deuce that the deuce may be included in the same straight or straight flush, then the combination includes an additional inside. This makes WW46 a SF4-2, rather than a SF4-1.
Why is this? Well compare the number of cards that can fill in a straight flush starting from WW57 (a true SF4-1) with WW46. In the former, you’ll have a suited 9, 8, 6, 4, and 3 along with the other two deuces, for a total of seven cards. In the latter, you’ll find 8, 7, 5, and 3, along with the other two deuces, for a total of six cards.
Another way to look at it is to use Video Poker for Winners. If you enter the hand in question, you’ll find WW46 is worth 15.21 coins. If you change the straight flush combination to WW57, you’ll find that worth 16.28 coins. If you were playing for dollars, five coins at a time, the difference in the value of the combinations is $1.07. The value of two deuces by themselves is somewhere between those two numbers.
In the basic strategy on the same card, SF4-1 is spelled out more (WW45-WW56, WW57-WW97). Our assumption when we constructed the cards was that players would master the basic strategy before they went to the advanced strategy. We don’t include the ranges on the advanced cards because we need room to describe the various penalty card situations. We also include an insert with the strategy card, defining all the terms. We understand that many players ignore the insert, but the information is there if they look for it.
This looks like a case where a player went directly to the advanced strategy, didn’t read the insert, and made assumptions about what SF4-1 really means. Unfortunately, the definition was a bit more complicated than he first realized.
2. If I know of a 100.1+% video poker game that I could play “perfectly” (less than 1 error per 100k hands), is it reasonable to intentionally make small, inexpensive errors to disguise the quality of the play? I’ve found a few spots where +EV can be maintained.
A 100.1% edge is very tiny. (Yes, I know you said 100.1%+, but I’m not sure how much that plus sign adds, so I’m treating it as if it is negligible.) If you’re playing for dollars, at a moderate speed of 800 hands per hour, that means you have an advantage of $4 per hour. And you want to give up part of that for purposes of disguise? For me, the game is not even playable.
Video poker has ups and downs. It’s possible that you could play this game for several years, perfectly, and still be negative.
For casinos evaluating your play, they probably look at 100% accuracy and 99.8% accuracy as being identical. One has to be really knowledgeable to play a game 99.8% accurately. And yet on this game, with 99.8% accuracy you’re playing a losing game.
Insofar as your claim of one error per one hundred thousand hands goes, count me a skeptic that you could achieve that level of near perfection. Yes, that’s possible, but how would you measure this? Did you actually play a million hands and only have 10 errors? I doubt that. Most players do not play as well as they think they do. I am 100% positive that I know 9/6 Jacks or Better at the 100% accuracy level. But that doesn’t mean I never make a mistake due to playing too fast, letting my mind wander, or just becoming distracted for an instant. These types of errors probably sometimes happen to you as well, even if you know the game extremely well.
Your game may be minimally playable during multiple point days or during some other promotion. But as it is, it’s not worth your time.
For the last 20 years there has been speculation that some casinos might track a video poker player’s hold accuracy against optimal strategy. While I don’t question for a second that this is feasible, should a manufacturer elect to offer this feature, I’ve seen next to nothing compelling that, in practice, this is a practical consideration in rating players other than perhaps a number of casinos that might be counted on one hand.
I know of one casino in which a player’s comp rate is fairly generous on first play with a player card, but reportedly diminishes very quickly. However, in the two cases where I’m aware of details, both players had decently winning sessions. More often I’ve heard anecdotes where casinos simply manually flag players for a rating “downgrade” when they’re observed playing rapidly.
The suggestion that one might intentionally add flawed play to their session in order to escape a “skilled’ flag always seems to cost more than what might be gained. As implied to extent within Bob’s comments, it seems likely that in such a case a casino would look for the player to give up at least 1% ER due to errors (it’s commonly cited that on average typical players give up about 2%). Generally, just a 1% giveback would be sufficient to negate out most, if not all, of quantifiable play benefits.
I’d appreciate it if someone has solid, well documented evidence of casinos that do penalize based on measured play accuracy if they would share general details having sufficient foundation so as to be strongly credible.
The house would not have to share any of that knowledge with anyone. Just the very very top bosses would need to know. How and what happens to your rating is done by the computer they’ll say. And they’re correct. The program follows your play and accuracy along with errors, and thus your rating. Plus, any “top boss” would never discuss this publicly if they ever wanted to be top boss again. Furthermore, I’m sure their computers tell them how often you take a dump, and I mean an actual bathroom dump!. The idea of disguises and anonymity a long long gone.
Straight flush draws with two deuces (not a wild royal draw) in NSUD is easy to remember. Connected 45 is the lowest and with a spread of one, 57 is the lowest. Spread two, like WW69 are not held.
Two things:
(1) I would consider 800 hands per hours to be a fast (or very fast) rate, not a moderate rate. That is exactly the fastest rate that I have ever achieved, but that was on a fast modern machine. Older VP machines like ones you can find in some downtown LV casinos don’t go nearly as fast. Also, we are not all always able or desirous of going as fast as possible. We might be a little tired or sick or distracted and thus unable (or unadvised) to play as fast as we can. And for some of us, unless we’re speeding to get a certain amount of play done before midnight, we just won’t enjoy playing as much if we play lightning-fast.
(2) We can make errors in more ways than we think. Sometimes it’s due to an unusual temporary brain malfunction. When I began playing Joker Wild on my most recent trip after the time gap since my last trip, I had to get back into the strategy. I got dealt the Joker with an Ace and also 5-6 suited (of a different suit than the Ace). Immediately, I held Joker-Ace, but then my mind doubted whether that was the right hold. So I looked at my strategy card (my self-made one) and saw that Joker-5-6 was the better hold. So I held the 5-6 and pressed Draw, only to realize that I had held Joker-Ace-5-6. I forgot to un-hold the Ace! So I accidentally made a gross error. And that’s one reason why I try to never play too quickly.
So the 4-6-w-w is also one of the main issues I have been dealing with while I was playing that game. Other a bit tricky hands , in my opinion, are hands like 3-4-5-K-K or so, the 3straight-flush with a pair in combo to draw-to. It takes a lot of practice to play such hands in “auto-pilot”mode and not make an error, especially if your brain is wandering, people talking to you while you’re playing, or you hear some casino advertising and get distracted. I noticed furthermore that Station Casinos’ policy is to play loud music and if the casino is full with all the noise from the crowds and the slots then it makes it tough to stay focused on your game. I used to play with ear-buds when it got too loud just to avoid major errors and keep my concentration.
From Switzerland
Boris
Boris:
I occasionally play at Boulder Station and always bring ear plugs. It’s deafening in there. And nobody plays at the Linq. That place is like being locked inside a defective woofer.
Sangria,
I came to the conclusion that it must be part of Station’s concept to distract the customers at a high level so they can’t think straight anymore. It takes a hell of a skill to focus on your own game while it’s all noise around you , slots beeping here and there, special anouncements, cocktail waitress screaming something and people bumping into your chair while squeezing through the aisle.
Bottom line: I prefer night time or graveyard play as this gives me more room and flexibility. At 5 a.m. you don’t even need earplugs…. 🙂
From Switzerland
Boris
I don’t play at the Linq because they don’t have any good games. But I agree it’s loud in there.
You do not have to have near perfect play to be flagged I am at prob 99.5 on say DB. I got lucky at Orleans. I hit 5 jackpots in one day. 3 were were given to me. The two other did involve the Tripe double bonus thing with 3 aces and low card. Played correctly on the two hands. I went to host office for ? Of fees on my room rate. He looked at my play and stated he could see I was an excellent player. After that I got no freebies from host. Not ever. They did not consider my significant loss at stay at Fremont. Playing wrong to not get attention? I ?!that. You get 3-4 free rooms. What bonuses do you get that overcomes that loss? I guess if you want fancy meals maybe? You can do that from your points at Boyd properties. When past there I had about 400 dollars in food or shop purchases. They also discount meals by 45%. You only pay 55 % of meal cost plus you pay with your points. I just don’t see the problem. That is a very big loss. This can happen. You may get two royals next visit.
Boris:
Distracting gamblers is the way to do business to make more money. Break the player’s concentration. Of course, free drinks. The cocktail waitress uniforms at Southpoint are very distracting. At blackjack, I’ve noticed the dealers will always try to tell you that you did something wrong to make you angry and break your concentration. “Don’t touch your cards.” “Put your double down chip there, not there.” “Sir, don’t hold your cigarette over the table.”
Same thing at the dice table. It’s so obvious.
I can get insulted by a cashier at Walmart. I don’t have to go all the way to Vegas for it.
Sangria, 100 per cent with you on that one. The problem is: sitting on a stultifying slot does not take concentration. you press the button and see what happens. This can be fun, even in a noisy place such as red rock or Boulder Station on a busy night. Playing videopoker takes concentration, even for a skilled player. The vp banks sometimes are located at places that are heavily frequented and this could also be an indicator that the casinos are trying to get an extra edge.
Some players avoid these busy hours , regardless of the promotions (e.g. point multipliers) because they simply can’t keep their concentraction. Because of the current lack of good promotions it is questionable whether playing vp these days are making any sense at all. I see that even the Boyd “Senior Day” has turned into a completely worthless affair. I take it it’s because of the pandemic and they don’t need big crowds but once it’s over and the casinos return to 100 per cent capa then I would expect the promotions to return. And the noise…..
From Switzerland
Boris
On my first trip to Vegas in 1968, I wanted to play blackjack at the Stardust. All of the tables were full but when a new table was opened, I sat down to play $1 per hand. As the dealer dealt the cards, he looked at my bet and said: “Big man.” I played the hand and left the table.
Boris:
I like your strategy. 1:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. is a great time to play. Less people, less cigarettes, more machines to chose from. Sometimes during these quiet hours the casinos turn down the volume off their music. I know Bellagio does this.
Disclaimer: I do like free drinks. Disclaimer: I do like the cocktail waitress uniforms at Southpoint.
Yeah, I remember the Boyd “Young At Heart” senior promotion. So many promotions gone.
What the dealers try to so is such a laugh. And who does it hurt? The dealers. No tips.
Once I was playing blackjack in the afternoon with 5 other people at the table. Everybody was having a great time, laughing, telling jokes, telling stories. Cocktail service was good. We’d all win a few hands and then lose a few hands. Just a great time in Vegas.
Then, the dealer made some sarcastic correction comment to one of the players. The table got very quiet. Everyone waited until the hand was done, then all 5 people and myself picked up our chips, stood up and walked away. Nobody left a tip.
So sad, too bad.