When Liam W. Daily and I began looking at publishing strategy cards and later Winner’s Guides for a number of video poker games, we devised a terminology for discussing the various forms of 3-card straight flush combinations. We decided to start from zero, add one for every high card in the combination, and subtract one for every inside (which is usually, but not always, a gap).
Although the idea was original to us, in the sense that we didn’t read or hear about it from anybody, we later found out that other strong players were using very similar terminology among their teams. These notations weren’t published or otherwise publicized, so we hadn’t heard about them.
At the time (mid-1990s), I was a strong intermediate video poker player. Daily was much less of a player, but an Oxford-educated Ph.D. economist. He was a brilliant theoretician who had devised new ways of looking at a number of problems — including for the International Monetary Fund! By the time we finished the Winner’s Guides many years later, we could both call ourselves experts. Our expertise came from doing the hard work on so many strategies.
I was teaching and publishing articles (in Strictly Slots and Casino Player, at the time, plus a weekly blog that has morphed, more or less, into what you are reading now) which gave me a sort of trial by fire. When I published something that wasn’t quite right, there were a number of players who would trumpet the evidence that I wasn’t as good as I claimed I was. In addition to developing a thick skin, I learned from this. When the criticism was justified (sometimes, not always, and sometimes inconclusively), I improved my knowledge base.
I started to be recognized as an expert when Shirley and I had our $500,000 half-hour at the MGM Grand in 2001. Just hitting two big royals in short order didn’t mean I was a better player or any smarter than I was the day before (when I was $500,000 less wealthy), but there were a number of players who concluded that if I could hit such big jackpots, I must know what I’m talking about.
Enough of the background. Here is a complete list of 3-card straight flush combinations, and our terminology for them, for all games without wild cards where you get your money back for a pair of jacks or better:
| SF3+1: | SF3 2h1i | QJ9 |
| SF3 1h0i | JT9 | |
| SF3+0: | SF3 2h2i | KH9; QJ8 |
| SF3 1h1i | QT9; JT8; J98 | |
| SF3 0h0i | 345, 456, 567, 678, 789, 89T | |
| SF3-1: | SF3 1h2i | KT9, QT8, Q98, JT7, J97, J87, A23, A24, A25, A34, A35, A45 |
| SF3 0h1i | 234, 235, 245, 346, 356, 457, 467, 568, 578, 679, 689, 78T, 79T | |
| SF3-2: | SF3 0h2i | 236, 246, 256, 347, |
There are two combinations in the SF3+1 category — namely two high cards and one inside (QJ9) and one high card and no insides (JT9). These are the most valuable 3-card straight flush combinations in this type of game. While having three high cards and two insides would also qualify as SF3+1, such a combination is physically impossible. Having three high cards in a 3-card combination makes some sort of an RF3 combination, rather than an SF3 combination.
There are three combination types in the SF3+0 category — with more than one combination in each type. You can see the list above. For those unfamiliar with our KH9 notation, the H represents a high card lower in value than the first card listed. So KH9 represents both KQ9 and KJ9. These combinations have exactly the same value and can’t both co-exist in the same five cards (unless you had a 4-card straight flush draw) which is much higher on the strategy chart).
There are two combination types in the SF3-1 category. There are two unusual things here — both of which deal with insides. The combination 234 has an inside and is worth exactly the same as 235 and 245. Although 234 may look like it has no insides, the only straight flushes it can be part of are A2345 and 23456 – which are exactly the same two straight flushes which are possibilities for 235 and 245.
All six of the ace-low combinations listed have exactly the same value. Even though A23 has one gap and A45 has two gaps, the only straight flush either one may be part of is A2345. Sometimes players can understand that these combinations have equal value when they see a strategy listing something like SF3: A-low. But sometimes they need to be told explicitly,
It is my belief that understanding the previous two paragraphs, and applying the concepts to strategies, is a major difference between beginners and intermediate players.
The final SF3 category is SF3-2. These all have no high cards and two gaps. Sometimes they are the lowest valued category of cards worth holding. But in most games, you are better off holding them than throwing all of the cards away.
So far, we have just defined things. Next week I will show how these are used in strategies and show how they differ between games.
I love the anecdotes that populate Bob’s columns. But it’s only when he delves into strategy that I feel I’m engaging in a “heart to heart” discourse 😉
Excellent column Bob, thanks for the refresher
In my field of acquaintances there’s still a bunch of people who think that Videopoker is a game at which the computer decides when to “give it to you”, and when not. There are always long streaks during which you can win a lot and sometimes you’re simply on a cold spell. I have not figured out how is that. If it’s supposed to be random, how can a random hot streak persist and a long cold streak go on and drive you crazy?
I tried to play my best game knowing that tourists are only there for limited time, play here a nd play there, and all over sudden the trip is over and they go home. Over the years I came to the conclusion that it’s the combo of playing the right games, playing them right and taking advantage of the promotions. Short term luck prevails over everything, no matter how well you played during a month, 2 months. The only question is: How bad can you play to get an additional negative impact? Can you play bad and still come out a winner over the course of , let’s say 4 or 6 weeks?
By “playing badly” I mean disregarding all gap straigh flushes, sometimes not holding the card you are supposed to keep, hence, even forgetting to hold one of the deuces that are shown on the deal.
By practicing at home on my computer I realized that I make about 2-3 errors within 100 hands, depending on the number of tricky hands that are being dealt. I find the low 3-straitht-flush (or pair) hands extremely hard to memorize. I just couldn’t find the right path to find out why you hold the cards this way or that way in certain situations.
But then again, I find these problems so microscopic that I believe in the short run they are not even relevant to bother over it. Of course, 50 cents play or 25 dollar games are a completely different league. If I get my rooms comped for my play it’s probably worth much more than contemplating how to play a certain hand that has a minor error possibility.
From Switzerland
Boris
For what it is worth – I don’t believe the standard bullshit espoused about the thousands of cycles per second that cards are cycling thru (when holding less than 5 cards) with the remaining unheld cards. I fully believe that hands are pre determined when the button is pushed. What I also believe is that there are groupings of more paying hands in some series of playing cycles- and many more groupings of non paying hands in other cycle groupings of hands being played. After 30 + years of playing video poker I see the same hands/results over and over – same cards, same order of the cards. I also believe that there are instances when a possible high paying hand is at hand, and only the correct card choice of the remaining cards will result in a winner. All of this minuscule card holding knowledge is of little use for the player who does not try to make a living playing Video poker. I also believe that there are actual random big winners in the pre card button push drawings that “majically” appear out of nowhere – like a dealt Royal flush. The ONLY thing that computer training has shown to be of REAL value is that by playing computer derived strategy it does appear to allow one to play more hands in hopes of one (or more) high value hands to appear – and hopefully, the player makes the correct winning decision of the cared(s) yet to be chosen.
Question – Why is there no apparent way to make a spelling correction of a posting here in the comments?
David, whether you believe that the cards are appearing randomly is “bullshit” is irrelevant. If the Nevada Gaming commission determined that a certain sequence was preordained, the casino and the game maker would lose their license or be punished posthaste. After all, if the game knew what cards would show up and when, it wouldn’t matter what the pay table was…you would lose anyway. Slot machines are different in that certain high paying combos will show up less often than low paying ones, although when those combos are pulled is random.
Mike – I call “bullshit” because no matter what the Gaming Commission says ( after all, what else are they going to say?), my personal results say and show differently – that is my story and after 30 years of video poker play I am sticking to it. But, believe what you want, as I know you will. Here is another “fallacy” I refute – the play (in Blackjack) of the person on third base has no effect on the overall play and results of the hands. While this may be true to some degree over millions of hands, neither I or many others will ever play that many hands in a lifetime. Why do you think that true blackjack professionals prefer to play heads up or with no more than 2 other players ( who know what they are doing)? Morons at third base have no reason to be playing blackjack if they have no real knowledge of how the game should be played. I am sure that you – and others – will refute what I say here – but that is OK by me.
I love all of the conspiracy theorists and their claims of rigged or cheating games but yet they STILL play them!
I think , and this is my way of playing it: The machine is shuffling the 52 cards and every time on the deal puts it in order. Technically, the random shuffller needs to pull out 10 cards and put them in a sequence. 1-2-3-4-5- (6-7-8-9-10). First 5 cards come out and sit there. The 5 more cards have been determined as well and “wait”. Depending on how many cards a player wants to replace, the same number of cards from the “waiting 5” is showing up to complete the final hand.
I just find it a bit strange that over several sessions I played there were different scenarios. Average distribution of deuces on the deal, almost no deuces shown for several hands in a row up to MANY HANDS FOR ABOUT 15 -25 MINUTES, and of course, the dream situation, in which I received 1 or 2 (or hopefully 3) deuces on the deal almost every hand and then this is what makes deuces wild so fun.
I also noticed that I play the machines that recently gave me more deuces than others because I believe that those are the better (hotter) machines. Although of course that’s complete nonsense.
From Switzerland
Boris
The hardest thing to learn is randomness in the long term.
I’ve also had many hot and cold streaks and strange hand similarities. My favorite was years ago I was playing video poker at the bar at Main Street Station and I was dealt a pair of fives four hands in a row.
Of course, if the player’s club doesn’t return much and there are no promotions, then play wherever the cocktail waitresses are the cutest. I recommend South Point. The cocktail waitresses at Wynn are dressed more conservatively, but very elegant. And I remember a long time ago the cocktail waitresses at the Imperial Palace.
From Arizona
Sangria
I’ve also had extreme randomness in my “videopoker history”. For instance, it occured several years in a row that I was lucky to hit a Royal Flush on my very first day of my vacation time in Vegas. This happened at the legendary Tuscany casino, at the bank right by the entrance that had a 4-6-9 progressive DDB quarter game loaded and my favorite machine was the 2nd of the very right. No kidding, but it really occured to me that I hit the Royal there for about 5 or 6 years in a row every single time I visited the Tuscany and started playing. Once I remember that I was down almost 1000 dollars playing that game and then I only kept the Ace of spades on the 5th position, just to see that the machine decided to give it to me 🙂
Unfortunately they removed that bank. I think I would still be playing that machine when visiting the Tuscany if it would be there.
From Switzerland
Boris
That machine was probably too hot, which is why the casino removed it. Sometimes some machines come too hot from the factory, manufacturing anomalies, they usually don’t last long on the casino floor. One possibility is that the PRNG starts in a hot zone and takes too long to get to a more normal or cold zone. Check wikipedia “pseudorandom number generator”.
There are some tools to find anomalies in PRNG’s, like TestU01
In recent years, these articles have gotten about as far away from Gambling With An Edge as you can get in my opinion. I have no clue as to what Mr. Dancer’s contract is with LVA, as it is none of my business. I will state that he wrote basically the same one on the exact same subject on 9-30-2014 and also one on 9-20-2006. I wonder what will be covered in part 2?
In past years I had always copied most gaming articles that might be of interest to me at the time and put them in a folder if I wanted to read them later. For folks who may be interested in the older articles prior to 2011, you can likely retrieve them from the internet wayback machine at web.archive.org as the bobdancer.com site does not show the ones written prior to that. He may have deleted the older content when he was writing for other companies.
Regarding this article, there are not any specific numbers mentioned, such as how often the four types of hands occur over the long run. Some readers might want to know hold differences, such as a hand that might be 1/30th of a tenth of a coin than another hold.
A couple weeks ago in his “There’s A Reason” article, Mr. Dancer is writing about an incident that happened years ago, but claimed that he might have some of the details wrong. So my question would be why write about it without contacting Amy and Bo to clarify the details before you write about it? This would make the GWAE stand for Guessing Without Accurate Evidence.
There is a paragraph in this week’s article about his $500,000 day with wife # 1 that has absolutely nothing to do with the subject. I would have to put this GWAE as Guru With An Ego.
I would like to leave my post on a positive note. I’m sure that most readers know that casino gaming is a numbers game for both the players and the owners. I did a recent comparison of results for the two large local outfits here in LV. They are Boyd Gaming and Red Rock Resorts. Red Rock is the corporate owner of all Station casinos. I wanted to do a covid period and post period look before the 2nd quarter conference calls. Casinos shut down around the beginning week of March 2020 and started opening back up in June. I did a 3 year review of the numbers. The NYSE symbols are BYD and RRR. On Fri. 5-22-2020 there are the stock prices per share—BYD $19.69 RRR $13.11. On Fri. 5-19-2023, here are the close numbers –BYD $66.84. For that three year period–BYD +239% RRR +259%. For all of you players or investors, check your diversified portfolio and do a quick comparison. How do your numbers stack up? I think you all are aware of the changes in game pay tables and mailer quality. You likely don’t need a pro writing expert to tell you that. The old saying is “If you can’t beat ‘em, then join ‘em”. You don’t have to incur travel time, gas for the car, searching for the right game, picking the right day for multiplier, etc. If you had bought 100 shares of each stock, depending on how you purchased, the trading charge would be zero or really inconsequential. As the old pro used to say, “Now go out and hit some royals”.
The close on RRR on 5-19-2023 was 5-19-2023. For some reason when I pasted, it didn’t show.
My pasting talent sucks. RRR $47.10
Stock investing is also largely passive. Plus if you hold it more than a year, your gains only get taxed at long term capital gains rates which is a significant discount over the income tax rates. Plus, if you lose, you can write off up to a $3000 loss per year, and carry any loses forward. Plus, you can open a ROTH IRA, then any gains are tax free at retirement. Plus, there is something called the “Greenspan put”, namely the FED uses its power to print money to back up the stock market, i.e. the stock market has “too big to fail” status. Also there is no shortage of books or reddit sites on stock investing. What are you waiting for, the ginsu knife? Ads by William Shatner or Magnum PI? As a disclaimer, stock investing is just gambling, so you really need to be careful not to repeat the mistakes of the past. And watch out for the system husters, I can tell you right now, the only system that is mathematically sound is the Kelly system. Look it up. Read “Fortune’s Formula” for stories about people who ignored Kelly.
Liz:
I’m waiting for the ad by Tom Brady.
From Arizona
Sangria