It’s been a long time since I addressed this subject. The opportunity to actually do it hasn’t happened recently, so you should know that the situation I’m about to describe is fictitious, not factual. Still, the situation does happen periodically and knowing how to handle it when it does happen is worthwhile.
I’m playing $2 NSU at the South Point and a lady next to me is playing $1 9/6 Double Double Bonus. She’s dealt A♦ J♦ 3♦ Q♦ K♦. She doesn’t know me, but since I’m playing my game rapidly (by her standards) she assumes I’m knowledgeable and she asks me whether she should hold four or five cards?
The answer is easy. The flush is worth $30, and I know that four-to-the royal is worth a bit more than $92. The only reason I have that number memorized is because I teach classes and we discuss this situation in every class.
I tell her, “Drop the 3, say a prayer, and go for it! I can’t guarantee it will work this time, but it’s the best play.”
She mutters something like she’s been losing. Throwing away a guaranteed $30 really hurts because she never connects on these four-to-the-royal chances anyway.
I consider whether I should offer her $75 and I will assume her risk. If she gets the royal, I get $4,000, and if she gets a high pair, a straight, or another flush that money is offset from the $75. She’s worried about losing a guaranteed $30. Surely a guaranteed $75 in her hand must be better than that! I don’t tell her I’m making $17+ in expected value on the deal.
Here are the things I should consider before I actually say this out loud to her:
- I don’t know this woman at all. How trustworthy is she? I’m sure she’ll take my $75 (minus the value of what she actually hit) on the 46-out-of-47 times she misses the royal. But on that 47th time? When she looks at the royal and says, “What are you talking about‽ I made no such deal!”
Complaining to the casino would be awkward, at best. While I’m known at the South Point and am considered believable, on a he-says-she-says matter I doubt if they’d pay me. I’d be putting the South Point in an awkward situation that probably won’t work, and may hurt me in the long run. I can just see a manager thinking, “Remember that time Dancer tried to take that lady’s jackpot?” I want no part of that.
Taking her to small claims court is both tedious and, without anything in writing, what’s the judge going to do? My guess is that the judge would keep the status quo, meaning she keeps the money. Even if the judge splits it down the middle and gives me $2000, that means the $75 I offered up front was too much.
- There are tax implications here. If I receive $4,000 and get the W2g in my name, there’s no problem at all. I file as a professional gambler and know well how to deal with it. But if she gets the $4,000 in her name, assuming she doesn’t file as a professional gambler and still pays me all of the money, she has a tax liability. Depending on her circumstances, she could owe more than $1,000 — on something for which she received $75.
It takes no genius to imagine that she’ll feel she got ripped off by me. Even though I gave her a reasonable price given my tax situation, it was not a reasonable price given hers. Voices could be raised. Potentially a crowd could gather with me being considered the bad guy. A “rich” man taking advantage of a “poor” woman.
- We could talk about the tax details beforehand, I suppose, saying something like I’ll give her $50 now and if the royal hits, she gives me $3,000 and keeps $1,000 to cover taxes. But the more detail we go into, the more complicated it gets. She probably gambles for fun. A lengthy negotiation likely isn’t her idea of fun. And even with the negotiation, it still wouldn’t be in writing unless we found the paper, wrote it to our mutual satisfaction, and then signed it. Maybe in front of witnesses.
With all that considered, I’m going to keep my mouth shut and pass. I either lose money or potentially open up a hornet’s nest. I can’t win.
If the situation were changed so that I was negotiating with somebody I knew and trusted, and there was an independent witness both of us also knew and trusted, then maybe. But still, probably not. If it’s remembered by the other person as me costing them $4,000, it’s easy to see hard feelings erupt that could kill whatever friendship we had.
So again, even with the situation modified, I still probably wouldn’t do it.
These types of “scavenger” plays often bring many arguments of who gets paid what on table games, especially blackjack. I agree that it’s just not worth the hassle, especially considering the probability of such event even happening.
This has happened to me many times. I always say: “You have to go for it.” But, I want no part of a transaction.
She asked your opinion, you told her. Done.
Instead of saying “thanks” and proceeding with her own decision (keep all diamonds or go for the Royal) she whines about losing $30. She is trouble. If she takes your $75 and it fills in for the Royal she will hate herself then and forever. You do her a favor to not make your offer.
Reminds me of a situation recently while I was playing BJ. On occasion people will ask me what to do because “i seem to know what I’m doing”, because at the moment I have a relatively large ‘bank”. They have no clue what my buy in was or whether I’m up or down but they see the “high” bets and the [current] winning combined with the non-hesitation to play regardless of last hand outcome.
Anyway, this guy goes “all in” on this hand of BJ and get’s a stiff hand vs. a dealer 10. Obvious proper play is to hit but because he has “so much money” on the table, he wants advice. I don’t give advice. My advice is: it’s your money and I hope it’s not rent or bus fare home.
Anyway, this guy holds up the entire table while soliciting advice.
Someone gives in and gives him advice. He loses the hand and storms off.
I think some recreational gamblers ask advice for the simple reason as they want to have someone other than themselves to blame for losing money. Oh, this guy said to hit. Oh this guy said to hold these card.
“Oddly” from back when I did give advice, I never had one person offer me any of their winnings. Strange ain’t it?
Sondjata, I might have suggested Surrender, if Surrender were an option at that casino. Many players aren’t aware of Surrender. Since he was asking, had a “large” bet out, and was “all in.” Would have given him the chance to play another hand, possibly with a better outcome. JMHO.
Did you seriously get paid to write this BS article?
I would not give any advice. It’s not worth it since it’s not your money and if it turns out she doesn’t win she will blame you. The only advice I’ve given at blackjack is for the person to invest some money in a book on basic strategy.
I never tell anyone how to gamble. If they ask for advice I always phrase the response as what I would do (rather than what they should do).
In other words, I would say “I’d go for the royal”. I would NEVER say “you should go for the royal”.
I got a cool story for you Bob.
A couple of months ago i was playing 9-6 JoB at either $1 or $2 denom (can’t remember). Anyway, this lady a few machines away from me looked and sounded like she was down big. I just remember she kept putting bills into the machine. It looked like she was playing some video poker game at $5 denom. I’m almost certain it was JoB or Bonus Poker.
After she lost, she would move to another machine and then another. Ultimately, she ended up at the machine that i know for a fact was at least $25 denom (i had mistakenly sat there a few times forgetting i did not have that kind if bankroll). This lady only played a few hands when i heard her ask the guy next to her if she should “go for it or hold the straight.” She had a straight, all suited AKQJ except the Ten. The guy, an older gentleman, told her that she “has to go for the royal.” I kid you not, this guy actually got up and held this lady’s hand as he waited for her to push the draw button with her other hand. He wasn’t being a creep and the lady didn’t look like she minded. At this point if you are holding a straight at $25 denom, that’s $500, right?
Well, wouldn’t you know it, this lady HITS the missing card for the royal. $100,000 win right next to me. She screamed SO loudly it actually made me jump a little.
I was genuinely happy for her. That’s a big win. My only issue with the outcome, and i wanted to know your opinion on this Bob, was what happened with the guy who told her to go for it. I understand that she MAY have gone for the royal even without his advice but it looked pretty clear that the older gentleman had convinced her to do it. The lady then asked to be paid via a check for “all of it.” It was clear that she was not going to tip any of the attendants or managers (not sure I would have done the same), but she also did not offer any money to the older gentleman. I honestly can’t even remember her saying thank you.
Anyway, i thought it was a cool story but so odd that she A) didn’t tip anyone and B) that she didn’t tip the guy who had convinced her to play.
Oh! And get this! She said she “normally” plays $10 denom but her favorite machine was taken by someone else so she HAD TO play $25 denom. Guess who was playing her favorite machine that forced her to play the machine she eventually won $100,000 on… the same older gentleman who held her hand.
“If the situation were changed so that I was negotiating with somebody I knew and trusted, …”, then hopefully that trust is reciprocated and they will accept my advice to “go for it”.
Fixed that for you 😉
I think that there are even more possible bad things that could happen than just the ones that Bob D. mentioned. E.g.: If the lady takes your $75 offer and the royal fills in, she might be so unhappy that she says to scrap the arrangement and give her the money, and if you contest that, she does physical harm to you. And if that physical harm involves your eye, you could be facing extreme financial costs to get it repaired, assuming you don’t lose sight altogether. Even if you could get her info so that you could sue her in court, all a court hearing does is making a ruling: i.e., the lady owes you $50,000 for your eye surgery and related expenses. But that doesn’t include an order that she has pay her debt; it only creates an accounts payable for her and an accounts receivable for you. But even if she forks over the money (voluntarily or involuntarily) you still might be stuck with only being able to see out of one eye, which means you can no longer drive. To me, the fact that you don’t know anything about this woman is enough to make the decision easy: NO, do not enter into any agreement with her. The odds of everything happening properly are not even close to 100%. Oh, and one more thing: If she’s savvy, then she should assume that your initial offer isn’t fair, that the true amount that you should offer her must be more, in which case she would demand a higher figure from you, maybe $95 or $100, which kills your endeavor.
I have my own little story about being dealt 4 parts of a royal, one that has drawn staunch derision from others who say that the decision is cut and dried as to what you should do. It relates to how people are repositories of emotions instead of merely containers of a computer in their skull, and how the current situation influences a person’s decision. Many years ago, I was playing video poker late at night on the last night of gambling on my trip before I had to leave Vegas and return home the next morning. I had decided that I was going to stop playing after the next hand. (I play quarters, and I normally stop play when the meter is at a multiple of $5.) Not only was it late, but I was starting to get tired, and so when the meter was $1.25 (5 coins) above a $5 multiple, I told myself that I was going to stop play after the next hand. If it was a loser, I would finish right on the $5 multiple. If it was a winner, I wouldn’t be concerned if the resultant balance was not on a $5 multiple. So I pressed the button for max coin, and on the screen came (in Diamonds, like in the example in the story!) AKQJ7, in that exact order. Because I had decided that I didn’t want to play anymore that night, I held all 5 cards and took the Flush payout. That meant that my last hand of the night was a “gainer” (net-profit hand) instead of a loser. The odds were overwhelming that I would not get the 10 of Diamonds. I was totally fine with my decision, and fine with the fact that I didn’t know what would’ve happened if I had discarded the 7 and drawn a card to replace it. I was smiling, and that was good enough for me. But every person to whom I’ve told this episode has derided me for not going for the royal. Yeah, the math says to go for the royal, but that’s not the only thing to consider. Sometimes another aspect of life makes the right choice (for you in your current situation) not be the one that’s best financially. E.g.: My mom took a day off of work (unpaid) in order to be home all day after our dog had had surgery. I paid $75 to get a friend entered into an alcohol-rehab program. The examples are endless. Sometimes feeling good is more important than money.
There are more possibilities that just hitting the royal or not hitting the royal.
Let’s say it was 9/6 DDB. You take the 30 coin payoff for the flush. If you draw, you can hit a high pay 12 ways ( 5 coin pay off), a straight 3 ways ( 20 coin payoff), a flush 7 ways ( 30 coin payoff) and a royal flush one way ( 4000 coin payoff). So, there are 23 paying hands possible and one is a very big paying hand. If you take the royal out of the equation, holding all five is worth 30 coins and holding 4 is worth a little over 7 coins, so about a 23 coin difference , not 30. I don’t know if that makes a difference or not to you.
If you are playing 9/6 JOB, the draw is worth about 8.5 coins, excluding the royal. So the cost of going for the royal is less than the full 30 coins you get from the pat flush.
With respect, I guess I don’t understand your point, Jimmy.
9/6 DDB and 9/6 JoB have exactly the same returns for all the relevant hands (royal, flush, straight, and high pair) so I don’t see why you give different values.
And I don’t see the reason you take the royal out of the equation.
I have heard the term “cost of the royal,” but in my 27-year video poker career have never learned the definition nor been convinced it was a useful concept.
If you find it useful and wish to explain, you’re welcome to post that here or in your own blog on this website.
Bob, I’ve heard you recommend Frank Kneeland’s book (The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives) many times. Haven’t you read it? He uses (and defines) the cost of a royal (or cost of a jackpot) in that book.
It’s definitely a more useful concept for progressives, in my opinion.
If you care enough about a 30 coin payout that you would throw away a hand worth 3x as much just to secure the flush, you are playing way, way, way above the stakes you should be. Even if you can afford it financially, it’s pretty clear that you can’t afford it emotionally.
If the stakes were right for you, then getting or not getting that 30 coin payout would have be effect on whether you were smiling at the end of the night. If missing out on 30 coins effects your emotional well-being that much, I can’t imagine how you react to being down 500 or 1000 coins after a bad night.
Well in my opinion that’s a little too much on the tight side, Al. I would have definetely tried to catch the Royal Flush. Imagine how fantastic it would have been to finish your trip with a Royal Flush on the very last hand. And even if not, you could always have the story to tell your family years back that it was the trip when you had an inside draw to the Royal Flush on the very last hand of your stay…..
I also have a very special way of finishing my play the day or the hours before heading back to the airport, but it also depends on the special promotions that are currently on. I noticed that the casinos have considerably cut down the offers but hopefully they will return once we will have this pandemic behind us and the casinos are back in full operation without restrictions or fear of the next wave to arrive.
From Switzerland
Boris
You guys think this is dicey? Try buying a square’s hand on three card poker when they want to fold and the hand has roughly 18% in ev. After it wins with 8 high that can cause some commotion. You’ll need some strong people skills to profit on these spots
All the decades I have played live poker, some years it was my job, I have hit one Royal playing hold-em using both hole cards, and one at seven card stud. I have one lifetime video poker Royal. Anytime you can draw one to a Royal it’s an event, you may not have that chance again for quite some time. That lady should play slots, video poker is about knowing the odds and plays, this is a no-brainer, and it’s a no-brainer to not partner or cut a deal with someone who does not know the basic math of the game in my opinion…
I think asking these kinds of silly questions (where the answers are clear most of the time right there) have only one purpose: To draw attention of your neighbor player to watch the important hand and share the (bad) luck with you. There are a few hands that I am also not always sure about so I ask the experts next to me but then again I will play on. Very scaresely I ever actually did hit a royal flush after such a crucial decision. I have hit 4 deuces many time in situations described above, but never ever actually a royal flush after inviting the other people from the peanut galleria to watch the hand and applause if it comes in….
From Switzerland
Boris
My solution is simple – 1) I tell whomever asks what the correct strategy play is, and 2) I tell them what I would do if the hand in question was my hand. The choice is up to them to make.
Even though this particular story is fictitious, it still has merit. It proves the point that most people who are in a casino should absolutely NOT be there. At $1 denom, if you can’t spare 30 bucks at a chance of a much higher payday, stay home or find a non-gaming hobby.
Answer: Did you come to the casino to make a flush or a royal?
If the jackpot happens, it’s on her name because after the cards are dealt, it’s considered as in-game mode.
Maybe. Different casinos make different rulings on this.
Hey Al – I think you went a little over the top on this one. Bob is just talking about drawing one card out of 47. You have the woman blinding Bob for life, and then he is unable to collect any damages.
Take a chill pill, dude!
WHat about this deal? Pay her $30 for the hand and she gets another $1,000 if the royal comes in.
The problem with that is you might feel you just bought the hand, but it’s still her card in the machine, she’s the one who originally put in the money, she’s the one who clicked the button, so the casino is still going to pay HER, and fill out the paperwork using her Social Security number, etc. And the slot attendant will physically hand HER the cash, at which point she is he one who can decide what to pay you.