Author: Bobby Vegas

A very interesting article (for me anyway), just posted in The Economist on the lengths smart money bettors go to once they’ve been ID’d. Mostly referring to UK betting, there’s plenty of info for U.S. bettors too.

I don’t consider myself “smart.” Possibly enlightened. Maybe swimming with the smarts, happy being a catfish, a scuffler.

When North Carolina opened sports betting, like any half-conscious advantage player, I took every sign up, netting over $1,000 (then used my NFL futures strategy, which I’m told is NOT smart, though I won three out of four seasons, then stopped).

But what really struck me in the article wasn’t just the inventive covers smarts used to avoid detection and get their bets in (like using beards, especially whales), but how thoroughly the books could detect and ID a square or a smart by the first bet, or sooner.

Did you use a debit card (square, good) or e cash? (smart, bad). Male? Or female? (Bad.) Type of bet placed? When was it placed? At posting? Bad. Are your bets smarter than the house’s from day one? (Very bad.)

Though illegal in some states, the smarts’ bets were restricted immediately.

The continuing automation of gaming makes it harder every day to implement advantage plays. It becomes increasingly important not just to play smart, but also coy or with covers. Or both. Using every advantage you can.

A Huntington Press book on blackjack strategy focused on how to effectively throw off the house by making certain bets that LOOKED square, but barely affected the player’s edge. Taking the minimal loss in edge was worth it compared to the reduced house heat.

In sports betting, a simple strategy is to throw in parlays. They’ll leave you alone.

There are areas in electronic game software that appear to deploy additional randomization when the software detects betting patterns particularly in e-roulette.

When e-roulette first came out, many games were deployed without software pattern-detection settings. Certain bias patterns occurred that could be exploited — for almost two years. Eventually, the house turned on the pattern-detection software, probably because the game wasn’t earning “enough.” Then when you played that same machine, as soon as a betting-pattern bias was detected, the ball speed changed. End of pattern.

Reading the manufacturers’ manuals revealed that the software was implementing “cheating-prevention” techniques almost as bad as old-school magnets.

I’m deploying strategy. So are they. Mine’s advantage play. There’s is illegal. Beyond calling Gaming Control, there was little I could do to stop it, except continue my relentless pursuit of advantage play … elsewhere.

They want losers. Period. In reality, I’m neither a square nor a smart. Just a scuffler. My goal? I don’t like to gamble. I like to win money. Play as long as possible, win some and lose as little as possible. The house doesn’t like that either.

Example: Just came back from a week in Vegas. My trip was free. The secret? Stay under the radar.

The adventure continues.

Advantage players search for edges. In addition to the usual techniques at blackjack, video poker, sports betting, and tournaments, they keep their eyes out for opportunities where the house offers a promotion, but miscalculates the odds.

A good example comes from Anthony’s YouTube channel interview with Jonathan Jossel. The Plaza offered a 30% rebate on W9 taxable wins for 24 hours. APs swept in and played keno — yes, keno — till the cows came home. Not exactly the usual AP game. Being a stand-up guy, Jossel didn’t cancel the promotion when he realized the mistake, even though it cost the Plaza several hundred thou. In 24 hours, no less.

That’s how significant exploiting a loophole can be.

Now, some APs will grouse at me again for publishing this, as they have when I wave the flag about advantage play VP opportunities or stacking promos, but that’s my job, helping you see the (value) light pointing the way to the promised land before the house catches it. And they’re watching, so you have to move quick.

A favorite expression comes to mind: “Happiness is positive cash flow.” OURS, not theirs!

The purpose of this post is to MAKE YOU THINK, to ask, “What if …?”

You should realize that you’ll make mistakes, hit dead ends, find out your hunch was, a buncha hooey. Are you willing to take that risk? Look dumb? Get the door slammed in your face? If so, I can tell you that when you’re RIGHT, it’s so sweet. Positive cash flow sweet.

Ken, an Arizona reader, told me about his experience calling the Virgin attempting to get info on their tier bump requirements. Reaching the player’s club, a very uncooperative staff member hung up on him. Customer service? Fuggedaboudit!

He didn’t get the info needed but that’s okay, because Ken’s ASKING was key. He was SEARCHING.

BTW, Ken got a free Bobby Vegas T-shirt for the tip. “Avoid the Virgin!” Ever since they transformed the truly legendary Hard Rock into this no-winners no-fun land of boring games and well corporate tomfoolery, the “Virgin” is more like a (I shouldn’t be that vulgar, so let’s just say) washed out.

Here’s another example of my thought process.

If less people are coming to Vegas for the foreseeable future, where can I find an undiscovered advantage — beyond great hotel deals? Like if bingo has 30% less people, but the payouts are the same, does that raise our odds for winning substantially
compared to bingo’s edge? YES. Get my drift?

Check it out. Try being wrong. ASK, and win.

Where else have you found an edge or tried to? Share your discoveries and mistakes.

Next up is my favorite math formula (nerd alert):

It’s not “Any X equals X.” It’s “Any X equals ANY X”!

O.M.G. The Birthday Paradox. I love it. We’ll get to it in my next blog. Stay tuned.

Haggard corporates huddle over their conference-table laptop spreadsheets revealing red lines pointing down, empty coffee cups, half-eaten pastries, hair askew, bloodshot eyes.

“Ya think if we just get them in the door, we can make it up in …?”

Next month? Next quarter? Next year? Ya think?

Like this is a new idea? Maybe they’re catching on. See, an empty hotel room night is lost revenue forever. By my calcs, they’re staring at 15,000-25,000 empty rooms every weekend night. Midweek. more like 50,000. We may be seeing their breakeven revealed.

And as any good scuffler worth their stacked coupons knows, that’s good news.

Here’s Bobby Vegas’ common-sense recipe for success:

1) lower your costs coming in,
2) spend as much time as humanly possible on their dime, through comps, deals, coupons, WHATEVER,
3) and play the best games for you with the lowest edge.

Winner winner steaks for dinner! You’d prefer salmon? Fine.

Folks, there’s something you must always keep in mind: Time is your enemy. The longer you play with even a slight negative edge, the more likely they’ll win your money. Slots? Fuggedabouddit. The casinos know that many players like to forget it and hope for the best, tipping back the free drinks.

So if you care to win, or at least break even and have a grand old time, use EVERY advantage they give you, playing on their dime and on their time, eat on their comps, and use every free play, matchplay, two-fer, and discount and coupon you can beg, borrow, or fish out of the trash. (Thank you, Jean Scott.)

Old scuffler reminiscing.

“Now way back in the spring of ’25 when the cracks started to appear, there was the Plaza and that young Jonnie Jossel. My oh my, a smart boy, even bringing them in with bingo. Maybe try Bobby Wilson?

Then Downtown Grand followed, almost matching Plaza’s all-inclusive $125 a night deal, food, drinks, parking, and NRF. Now everyone from Boyd at the Fremont to Caesars at the Flamingo is offering two- night stays with $50 food credit for $150.

There’s that NRF again, a Bobby Vegas abbreviation for NO RESORT FEE.

Maybe it’ll catch on, like, a Bona Fide Bobby Vegas-Approved NRF Deal!

Plaza’s doing it, Downtown Grand does it, Four Queens, Golden Nugget, Treasure Island sometimes, and a few others dipping their toes in the NRF pool.

Yo, MGM, Caesars. Maybe you can work on those Strip food and drink prices, so we might get more than French fries and a Coke for our $50. Fremont? No problem, but can comps be used in the very nice new food court?

Me, I’m waiting for them to pay us to walk in. Remember the Stardust? $17 a night, complete with a $10 bounce-back and buffet coupon.

Just wait, people. It’s like fishing or hunting. Patience … patience … patience … then POUNCE!