Author: Bob Dancer

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Sunday Morning Coming Down

Bob Dancer

It will be easy to criticize my presumptuousness in this blog because I’m going to compare myself, in a way, to Kris Kristofferson, an actor/singer/songwriter we lost last year. Kristofferson won numerous Country Music Association awards and Grammys, along with a Golden Globe award and an Academy Award nomination. He also received several other “minor” awards that far outshone anything I’ve received. While I’ve had a relatively successful career, Kristofferson’s has dwarfed mine. Plus, most women found him gorgeous, and I haven’t been cursed with that affliction.

With that said, I recently came across on YouTube a four-part series on Kristofferson, hosted by Steve Earle in 2008, and found many similarities between Kris’s life and mine. So, forgive my presumptuousness if you can and hear me out.

Kris wrote hundreds of songs, but four of his biggest hits were recorded in a few months in the early 70s — “Sunday Morning Coming Down,” recorded by Johnny Cash, “For the Good Times,” recorded by Ray Price, “Me and Bobby McGee,” first recorded by Roger Miller but Janis Joplin posthumously made it a huge success, and “Help Me Make it Through the Night,” originally released by Sammi Smith and later by more than 400 other artists. While Kris lived more than a half-century more, having success in a variety of ways, that brief early-70s period gave him enough continued royalties that he didn’t have to work any longer if he didn’t want to.

For me, my most successful moment was a six-month period in 2000-2001 when I was able to net more than $1 million. I chronicled this run in my “Million Dollar Video Poker” autobiography. While the money was enough for me to retire, if I wanted, it gave my career the boost of credibility. I was essentially the same player before and after the million-dollar experience, but many players took winning that much as a sign I was very knowledgeable. And they bought my products.

While Kris’s run was a lot more lucrative than mine, probably the biggest difference between the runs was the percentage of luck versus the percentage of skill. While both of us had a healthy dose of both skill and luck, luck is a much bigger factor in gambling success than it is in writing four critically acclaimed and commercially successful songs back-to-back-to-back-to-back.
During and after Kris’s success in the 70s, drinking, drugs, and womanizing cost him his marriage to Rita Coolidge. My closest parallel to that also happened in the 70s — which was well before I moved to Vegas and experienced gambling success. While I was never a heavy drinker, and dabbling with marijuana was never a major hobby, there was a period of almost ten years when I couldn’t be trusted to be a faithful boyfriend/husband. I probably would have been a worse philanderer had it been easier. I never had groupies. I was okay looking, but women didn’t fall over themselves vying for my attentions. I’ve heard it said that a man is only as faithful as his opportunities. While there is some truth to that, strength of character can overcome these opportunities. For about a decade, I didn’t have that strength.

Kris seemed to overcome many of his demons with a religious conversion and an eye-opening movie role. In the 1976 version of “A Star is Born,” Kristofferson played opposite Barbra Streisand as an alcoholic self-destructive rock and roll star and songwriter. Over the course of the movie, Kristofferson gets more and more destructive and eventually kills himself while driving a car recklessly. Kris must have seen the movie as semi-autobiographical and become aware that if he didn’t change his ways, he too would likely face an early demise. At about the same time, Kris converted to Christianity and wrote the song “Why me?” (Sometimes called “Why Me, Lord?” when sung by other artists.) This song was his only number one record as a solo artist.

For me, I never starred in a movie, nor did I have a religious experience to straighten me out. I took the Erhard Seminars Training (EST) in 1980 — with positive results. The training is loosely based on Zen principles. It has generated substantial criticism, but for me it was the single-most important event on my journey towards being a responsible human being. I have had no contact with the organization for more than 40 years, which has morphed a few times but still exists, but it remains an important part of who I am.

When Kristofferson’s musical career was floundering in the mid-1980s, he teamed up with Willie Nelson, Waylon Jennings, and Johnny Cash and formed “The Highwayman.” These four artists, called outlaws by some, were as big as you get in country music. At the time, being less aware of Kristofferson’s achievements than I am now, I was surprised when he was included in the group, rather than, perhaps, Merle Haggard. While the group sang hits from each of them, about 40% of those songs were written by Kris. That’s why he was in the group. 

For me, my late-in-life partnership was the “Gambling with an Edge” podcast, especially when my co-host was Richard Munchkin. Prior to that show, I’d been a magnet for Internet criticism. People who did not know me regularly posted negative things, often untrue, about me. When the show became a hit because of the people we interviewed, much of that criticism stopped. For that, I am grateful.

Finally, both Kris and I eventually got marriage right. His third wife, Lisa, bore him five children and stuck by him 40 years until his death in 2024. By all accounts, they were happy. For me, I’ve had more than three wives. Bonnie came to me late in life. We recently celebrated our 11th anniversary — and both of us expect it to last for the duration.

So many of the good-and-bad events of my life parallel those of Kris — and I find that I personally respond to his lyrics. Maybe you can’t relate to “Well I woke up Sunday morning with no way to hold my head that didn’t hurt,” but I can. My favorite Kristofferson song, “Jody and the Kid,” was never a commercial success. But look it up on YouTube. You’ll be glad you did.

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Should I Say Anything?

Bob Dancer

The details of today’s incident caused me to wonder whether I should say anything to casino management. If they chose to “fix” the inconsistency it could either go in a way that would slightly benefit or slightly hurt other players. I’ve kept quiet, but I am writing about it. Maybe one or more of you will speak up about it. I’m sure this happens in more places than I know about.

The One Club is the slot club system used by Circa, Golden Gate, and The D, in downtown Las Vegas — all of which are casinos owned by Derek Stevens.  Among other benefits, Bonnie and I each receive $100 in food and beverage twice a month from the One Club. We redeem these comps at 8 East and Saginaw’s Delicatessen inside Circa and Joe Vicari’s Andiamo’s Steakhouse  inside The D. There are other eligible food outlets and numerous bars, but these are the places we frequent.

The idiosyncrasy that prompted this blog post is that the two restaurants at Circa include sales tax of 8.5% or so against our comp balance when we eat there and the one at the D doesn’t. So, we get $100 retail worth of food at The D and only about $92 worth at Circa. And both casinos belong to the same organization.

In many casino restaurants, sales tax disappears when you use a comp or pay with points. Things can vary when the restaurants are not owned by the casino but just rent the space. Some of these don’t accept comps at all, but others, like Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses in various Harrah’s casinos, charge extra if you are using comps.

There are other Joe Vicari restaurants around the country, so I’m guessing Andiamo’s isn’t actually owned by The D. And that’s the place that waives sales tax for compees. I can find no other Saginaw’s Delicatessens or 8 East restaurants on Google, so I’m guessing these are owned by Circa. 

I’ve not met Derek Stevens, the owner of the other casinos involved here, but he has the reputation of being approachable. I believe I could find a way to ask him about his sales tax on comps policy if I tried hard enough. 

But what would happen if I did? One possibility is that he would remove this internal inconsistency by starting to charge sales tax on comped dinners at Andiamo’s — which is a solution that players certainly don’t want.

So, I’ll let things be and remain curious about why things are the way they are. There are a whole lot of situations where I don’t understand things, but I don’t have a mission in life to get to the bottom of everything.

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I Don’t Have Enough Time to Eat!

Bob Dancer

On Wednesday April 30, I ate the breakfast buffet at South Point. I had a $15 coupon which expired that day, so it was ‘use it or lose it.’ The breakfast buffet costs $15.95 if you have a player card, so the meal basically cost a dollar, plus a two-dollar tip. The meal was easily worth more than that.

The April promotion at the South Point was, on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, play $3,000 coin-in on video poker and spin the wheel. Most of my wheel spins were for $50, $75, or $100 free play — which is an excellent return for a $3,000 investment on an even game. You could get some food offers, which expired May 4 or so, but I didn’t receive any of those. I was planning on playing $3,000+ on both my card and Bonnie’s after breakfast.

On my way towards the exit of the buffet, I noticed two men I’ve been friendly with for 20 years or so, “Al” and “Bo.” They were in the middle of their meal and, after receiving indications that I’d be welcome to join them for a bit, I pulled out a chair and sat down. We chatted for a while about this and that, as old men are wont to do, and then Al told me he wasn’t sure he was going to play the promotion that day.

“Why,” I asked. “It’s a nice promo plus you’re already here. Unless you are on a really tight schedule, it makes sense to play.”

Al told me that he already had two remaining breakfast or lunch coupons from this drawing, and they are only good Monday through Friday. If he got another one, he wouldn’t have the chance to use it.

Among the three of us, about 75% of the prizes had been for cash, averaging about $75.

I asked him if he’d play if he knew he’d get $50?

“Of course.”

Well, if 75% of the time you’re getting $75, that’s worth more than $50 in EV. He was used to such calculations, but not when there was food involved. He conceded that he couldn’t fault my logic.

“Plus,” I added, “if you do get another two buffets, you can use more than two in a day. You could invite Bonnie and me on Friday, and I’ll leave the tip! That’s got to be worth something to you, isn’t it?”

I left soon thereafter. I didn’t hear about his score that day, nor what he got with the wheel spin. I do know that Bonnie and I ate breakfast at home that Friday.

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A Closer Look at the NSU Puzzler

Bob Dancer

Last week my blog consisted of five mini-blogs. Each of these was about something I wanted to say but none was worth an entire column.

The last of these, changing notation slightly, was that you were playing NSU Deuces Wild and were dealt W45K as your first four cards, where the W represents a deuce and bold italics represent the cards that are suited with each other. Last week I called them all spades. It doesn’t really matter, but I’ll keep that true this week because it will simplify the answer. The question was: Of the possible 48 cards remaining in the deck, how many of them make the proper hold for the hand be exactly W45?

After I prepared that blog, but before it was published, I asked the same question to a couple of player-friends. They each had several answers/guesses and didn’t get the correct answer until I suggested they look it up on computer software. Before going on, I’ll be talking about relatively advanced concepts today. If you’re a beginning player, trying to learn advanced concepts before you have mastered the basics can mess up your learning process. You’ve been warned!

First let me give you how to play each of the 48 possible hands, and then I’ll tell you why. The dollar figures on each line tell you how much of an error it would be if you played W45 and you were playing for dollars, five coins at a time.

9 cards — any spade gives you a five-card flush. $10.31

3 cards — any deuce makes the correct play WW45. $15.65

9 cards — any 4, 5, or K gives you 3-of-a-kind. $4.78

15 cards — any non-spade A, 3, 6, 7, or 8 gives you a hand where the solitary deuce is the correct hold because these cards provide a straight penalty and the original K penalty . Between 9 cents and 20 cents, depending on which card we’re talking about

9 cards — any non-spade 9, J, or Q also gives you a correct hold of the deuce by itself because of “Power of the Pack” reasons and the possibility of a wild royal flush. Between 0.6 cents and 1.5 cents, depending on which card we’re talking about.

3 cards — any non-spade T makes the correct hold W45. Better than the solitary deuce by 0.9 cents. So, the correct answer was 3 out of 48 cards.

Now let’s talk about it. For the first three categories: the flush, 3-of-a-kind, and WW45, I’m not going to discuss any further. They should be obvious to all readers of a video poker column.

The next category, any A, 3, 6, 7, or 8 which are all straight penalties to W45, plus the king of spades which is a flush penalty. In Level 4 strategy on both the Dancer Daily strategy card and the Winner’s Guide, it says hold the deuce itself when there is both a flush and straight penalty. 

The next category, any 9, J, or Q, has Power of the Pack considerations. In the Winner’s Guides, we used the term “Pack” to indicate the remaining cards after the first five have been dealt. Here I’m slightly modifying that to indicate the remaining cards after the first four have been dealt.

When you are considering one or more deuces by themselves, the more cards that are already dealt at the extremes of the A3456789TJQKA continuum, the more likely you are to end up with a straight or straight flush with the cards remaining in the pack.

The king itself is the critical card here. For this rule to apply the cards must specifically be KQ, KJ, or K9, with one of them suited with the W45.

The reason why W45K T has a different play than W45K 9 is that the T interferes with wild royal flushes when you hold the deuce by itself. Out of the 178,365 possible draws from that deuce, 192 of them form a wild royal when you are dealt a T and throw it away compared to 236 of them form a wild royal when you are dealt a 9 and throw it away.

As we already mentioned, the flush and straight penalty cards lead to an error of between 9 cents and 20 cents. For some players, that is too small to worry about. I understand. For recreational players, going through the trouble to learn, memorize, and recall this penalty card situation is more trouble than it’s worth. Especially since it’s a relatively rare hand. Still, to me this a MAJOR ERROR, far larger than I’m willing to voluntarily put up with.

The Power of the Pack considerations at the end are all worth less than two cents. Which is why these corrections were listed in the appendix to the Winner’s Guide while the rule including flush and straight penalties was listed in our Level 4 Advanced strategy. 

Even though it’s not always worth a whole lot, I have all of these rules memorized and apply them whenever they arise. Part of this is because I play for larger stakes than $1, five coins at a time. Part of it is because, in spring 2025, coin-in on this game is probably more than 50% of all my gambling activity. And part of it is just my outlook on gambling — if I’m going to do it, I look for every legal edge I can get.

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An Interesting Slot Club Plus Other Thoughts

Bob Dancer

I received a strange email from a reader. I’m not 100% positive what I’m telling him is correct, but it’s what makes sense to me. Here it is:

I play slots and get weekly free play from MGM Grand and related properties in Las Vegas. If I redeem the free play at the MGM itself, it’s $100. If I redeem it at Park MGM, Aria, or any other MGM property on the west side of Las Vegas Boulevard, it’s $125. What gives?

The most likely explanation for this, in my opinion, is that the MGM Grand itself has looser slots than the other MGM properties. Assuming you’re going to play $20,000 or so through the machine when you come in (in order to keep getting the mailer), they’d rather you do it at the casinos with the tighter slots — so they reward you for doing so.

If you know about beating slots, shade your strike numbers depending on which side of the street you’re playing on. That is, if there was a game where you normally look for the minor being at least 17 before you play, use that number at the MGM Grand and 18 or 19 across the street.

Depending on how much you value your time, it’s probably best if you cash your free play on the west side of the Strip and do the vast majority of your playing at the MGM Grand itself. Even though the properties are right across the street from each other, the casinos are so large it can be a 10- or 15-minute walk to get from one to the other.

So Long to an Old Friend

At the South Point, I’ve played 9/6 Jacks or Better on the Five Play Multi Strike machines for years. Denominated in quarters, it was a 100-coin game, so it took $25 to fully load. It was a 99.8% game. In early April they downgraded these machines to 9/5 Jacks or Better, which makes them too tight to be interesting to me.

Even when they had the good pay schedules, they had nickel and dime games on the same boxes that were much tighter, and even the quarter games other than Jacks or Better were pretty tight. 

There are plenty of other games to play at South Point, but I’m sorry to see these particular ones go.

So Long to Another Old Friend

At the Four Queens in downtown Las Vegas, the dollar 10-7 Double Bonus machines are now gone. They’ve been a fixture at this casino for at least 30 years. Playing 50 cent 9/6 Jacks single line may be the best video poker alternative. It’s still slightly positive with the slot club, mailers, and promotions.

A Seven Stars Perk

One of the benefits of being Seven Stars in the Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado system, at least if you’re in Nevada, is that you get a monthly $150 free bet from Caesars Sports Book when you bet $100 or more. You used to be able to use Reward Credits to qualify for this free bet, but no longer.

The free bet is set up so regardless if you win or lose, you do not get the initial wager back. That is, if you bet at -200, which means you should win two-thirds of the time (not counting for the vig), you’ll collect a total of $75 for that $150 free bet. If you only collect that bet two-thirds of the time, that means your free bet is worth $50.

If you bet at +200, which means you should win one-third of the time (not counting for the vig), you’ll collect $300. Collecting $300 one-third of the time means your free bet is worth $100. Much better! And it’s easy to conclude that betting underdogs using free bets is better than betting favorites. I generally find a bet between +250 and +350 for my free bet.

For my initial bet, I find a bet around -200. I’m not sure why, but a sports bettor I respect told me I give up the least vig that way. 

Since these bets are a relatively small part of my monthly betting budget, I can use these quick rules of thumb without knowing a lot about successful sports betting. These markets are efficient enough that, so long as I get the bonus bet, it’s basically a certainty that I’ll profit over time. While I did learn a little about successful sports betting from co-hosting the podcast where we interviewed a number of successful sports bettors, my “expertise” is limited and the rules of thumb presented here are satisfactory enough for me.

If they stop giving away the bonus bet, I’ll continue using RCs to bet. Since I get to bet the RCs at face value, even if I’m only playing a 94% game at the sports book, that’s much better than playing a 50% game by redeeming the RCs for free play. 

When I stay at a Caesars property, which I do when I’m out of town, the hosts must use my accumulated RCs before they are allowed to comp anything. Since I play enough to merit being comped, I zero out my RCs at the sports book before I leave because the RCs would disappear if I didn’t. Some of the bets will win, so I’m virtually guaranteed to profit over time if I do this.

An NSU Puzzler

You’re playing NSU Deuces Wild, and the first four cards dealt on a hand are a deuce, a four, a five, and a king —- all spades. Of the 48 equally likely cards that could be dealt as the fifth card, how many are there where the correct hold is deuce, four, five? 

Rather than give you the answer immediately, I’ll spend an entire column on this puzzler soon.

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Something I Had Forgotten

Bob Dancer

In downtown Las Vegas there are three related casinos — Circa, D, and Golden Gate. These properties share the same slot club. Weekly free play from the mailers may be redeemed at any of the properties.

There are shared mixed-game mixed-denomination video poker progressives, mostly at bars, at all three properties — probably more that 200 individual machines. There are separate progressives for 25 cents, 50 cents, $1, $2, and $5 — although the 25-cent denomination is capped at $1,199, which is considerably less than being positive.

Although you have your choice of several games, in terms of return to the player, the best one to play is 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. At reset it is worth 98.5% or so. In early April, I noticed the $2 game at $14,000, which makes it worth 100.2% — plus mailers and other slot club benefits. I decided to go home, practice at the level of $14,500 and come back the next day and start firing.

I knew that last year the LVA Members Reward Coupon Book had coupons for at least two of the three properties where if you play 1,000 points in one 24-hour period, you get $100 in free play. I decided to check to see whether this year’s book had the same. It turns out they did for both Golden Gate and D, but not for Circa. But still, since I was planning to play many hours at this game, I figured that I could redeem both of these coupons. If the progressive went off before I reached the entire $100 in free play, I’d find something else to play.

The next day, the progressive was only at $14,080. I guess nobody figured it was a play yet. But I was there and prepared, so I went to the booth at D and redeemed my coupon. It only took an hour or so to play the 1,000 points, so I went back to the booth and received the free play. This free play was only good at the D rather than all the properties. So, I played off the free play and walked the two blocks to the Golden Gate and repeated the process.

After several hours, I needed to end for the day. The progressive was now at $14,200, but I had to let it go. The next day I was back and the progressive was still live. So, I sat down and started hammering away again. After six or so hours I again had to leave, so I did.

Same thing the next day. Eventually somebody else hit the royal at $15,800 and I was down a couple of thousand dollars — which is what happens when you play progressives and you’re not the one who hits it. No regrets.

When I was reviewing the strategy, I paid most attention to the hands with royal possibilities. Hands where you can’t get a royal, such as 99443, are played the same at all levels of the progressive, but hands like KQJ4 K, where the cards in bold italics are suited with each other, definitely change. At low levels of the progressive, you hold KK. At higher levels you hold KQJ.

Since I knew the 9/6 version of the game perfectly, I just used that strategy most of the time. I knew, for example, that in 9/6, on a hand like an unsuited KQJTT, you hold KQJT but on QJT99 you hold 99. My 8/6 strategy sheet, however, said with QJT99 you should hold QJT9. I wondered if this was an error on my strategy sheet or if this was actually a real difference between the 9/6 and 8/6 versions.

It turned out that my written 8/6 strategy was correct, and with that hand you hold 99 with 9/6 and QJT9 at 8/6. It’s a close play but the extra bit you receive from a 45-coin full house compared to a 40-coin full house is enough to make a difference on the 1-in-98 times you end up with a full house starting from 99.

I’ve played this progressive three or four times in the past, and this strategy change from 9/6 to 8/6 feels like one I would remember. But I didn’t. When I saw it on my 8/6 strategy sheet it seemed completely new to me. Since last time I played it on the $1 machine at $7,600, I just sat down and started to play when I found it. If the QJT99 hand came up that time, I probably misplayed it.

Oh well. My memory isn’t what it used to be, which is why I review before playing. While I am a pretty confident player, I think I’m fortunate that I can recognize my limitations and compensate for them. I know other players who can’t be bothered reviewing strategy because they figure they know everything. 

It sounds almost self-contradictory that I’m proud that I’m humble enough to get help when I need it, but that’s the way it is for me.

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Evaluating a Promotion

Bob Dancer

I received an email from a player who told me of a promotion at a Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado property. He wanted to know if it was worth playing, although he didn’t say which exact property it was or even in which state it was located, although the player lived in the southeastern part of the United States so that narrows it down somewhat. It seems like for a particular day, the property was offering 5x Next Day Bounceback (NDB) cash.

More than one property in the Caesars Rewards system has daily NDB. Let’s say you’re playing that promotion on a Monday. At the casino where I’ve played it, if you play at least 100 Tier Credits between 6 a.m. Monday and 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, you’ll receive free play at noon on Tuesday. The free play is generally good for 90 days. These parameters do not have to be the same for other properties.

At most of these casinos, it takes $5 coin-in to earn one Tier Credit (TC) for slots and $10 coin-in to earn one TC at video poker. I’ve been at other properties where, for the loosest video poker, it can take $20, $25, or even $50 to earn one TC. Just staying with the standard $10 per TC at video poker, it’s obvious to those with at least a little bit of mathematical facility that it takes twice as much coin-in at video poker to earn the same number of TCs as it does at slots. Therefore, the percentage return of NDB for video poker is half as much for video poker as it is for slots.

If you would earn, say, $200 in a “normal” NDB day, at the casino where I’ve played, playing on a 2x NDB day gives you that $200, and then when you’ve played that off, gives you another $200. The second $200 expires in seven days, not 90.

Any of these parameters can be different at other properties, but at least this gives you a template of what to look for. If I were considering playing at this 5x NDB day, I would do the following:

  1. I would find out how much “regular” NDB is worth. You can do this by actually playing, keeping track of how many TCs you earn, and then see how much NDB you receive the next day. If you know some other player who has played at that casino when NDB was in effect, perhaps they’ll be willing to share the information with you.
  1. Let’s assume at this casino that the daily NDB returns 0.25% for video poker. A 5x NDB day would then be worth 1.25%. Games like 9/6 DDB and 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild now become slightly positive for competent players. If the regular NDB is 0.50% for video poker, then 5x NDB would be worth 2.50% and several additional games now are worth more than 100% if you play them correctly.
  1. Normal Caesars Rewards benefits remain in effect. That is, Reward Credits (RCs) (generally earned 1-1 along with TCs) may be redeemed for comps, free play, or sports bets. Play enough and you can earn Platinum, Diamond, or Seven Stars status — each with benefit packages. Playing 500 TCs in one day earns you a 500 TC bonus. There are a number of steps topping out at a 10,000 TC bonus for 5,000 or more TCs earned in a day. If you play enough, you may well get offers in the mail with incentives to come back.
  1. I would check to see how long the NDB free play is good. If this is not a casino that I knew I’d be back to before the free play expired, I would stay at least until noon the next day and play off what I’ve earned. Although this will reduce my daily theoretical by 50% for this trip (assuming it will become a two-day trip instead of a one-day trip), generally speaking collecting the NDB I’ve earned is worth more than the reduced theoretical.
  1. I would check the entire floor to see what games are available. If there are only a few “good” machines, I might be there at 4 a.m. for a promotion that starts at 6 a.m. If I had a friend or two who were interested in playing the same machine during the same promo, I might agree on a schedule where all of us got to play our hours over the 24-hour period. I would look for friends who could be depended on to play the hours they agreed to. I would not want someone who, say, would leave early if they got down $1,000 or so. If that happened, whoever had a “shift” after that might well not have a seat available.
  1. If the best game isn’t one I knew how to play, I would learn it. I sell strategy cards and Winner’s Guides for a number of games and the Wizard of Odds website has a video poker strategy calculator that works for several games. Videopoker.com has, for a fee, an online “Pro” game where you can practice and get corrections until you have a game mastered. You can get a monthly subscription or an annual one. The more time you have between knowing which games are available and the day the 5x NDB is in effect, the more time you have to perfect your skills. There will always be players who show up on the day of the promotion and “wing it” without preparation, but that’s not the practice I recommend.
  1. If I were a big player (say, $25 machines or maybe $5 Ten Play) I’d definitely check with Caesars Rewards if there’s a limit on how much I can earn in a day. If the 5x NDB were worth 2%, for example, playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus perfectly is worth about 101% until I reach the daily limit but only about 99% thereafter. That would certainly affect how many hours I wanted to attack the machines.
  1. Assuming profit maximization is my goal, with the NDB, with or without a multiplier, it can be better to play a lesser game EV-wise at higher stakes than a higher game EV-wise at lower stakes. For example, let’s assume for $1 stakes you can play 8-5 Bonus worth 99.17% and for $5 stakes 9/6 DDB, worth 98.98% is available. If you can play $4,000 coin-in per hour on the dollar game and $20,000 coin-in per hour on the $5 game, with most NDB amounts the DDB game has a higher dollar EV. Keep in mind that even though playing DDB has a higher dollar EV, the variance is much higher than that of BP and it’s possible to lose MUCH more than what you’ll get back from NDB. If you have the financial and psychological bankroll for this, go for it! But it’s not my fault if it doesn’t turn out well for you this particular time. As in all gambling, if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
  1. There are properties where even with 2% bounce back, there are no games I would consider playing. Since I don’t know which casino we’re talking about, I can’t give a definite recommendation to play. But if I lived relatively close and was going to be available on the day of the 5x event, I’d definitely check it out.
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Musings About Being an AP

Bob Dancer

I was having dinner with two winning slot/video poker players when one of them, “Al,” asked, “What was the first AP movie you watched?” I knew he said AP to mean “Advantage Player,” but I wasn’t exactly sure what kind of movie he meant? “Do you mean like ‘Rounders?’” This 1998 movie starred Matt Damon and Edward Norton.

That was exactly what Al was talking about, and that particular movie was the first AP movie he saw. I’m almost 35 years older than he is and remember the 1965 Steve McQueen, Edgar G. Robinson movie, “The Cincinnati Kid,” which Al had never heard about. The third player, “Bo,” played pool in his youth and remembered seeing “The Hustler,” the Paul Newman, Jackie Gleason movie that came out in 1961. 

A number of other movies were mentioned, and eventually I mentioned “The Sting,” the 1973 movie starring Paul Newman and Robert Redford. “Absolutely not!” declared Al. “That movie centers around a con, and there are a number of dishonest activities portrayed. Being an AP means you win by your wits without cheating!” 

I wasn’t particularly surprised by Al’s point of view. Al is a deeply religious man who lives his life with integrity. If he thinks an action is even a little bit sketchy, he’ll avoid it. While I don’t agree with all of his decisions, I highly respect them. 

For me, I consider myself an honorable person, but I do take some “shortcuts” along the way. One of the problems with the idea of avoiding cheating is that the definition of cheating is vague. It’s a bit like what Supreme Court Justice Potter wrote in 1964 about a very dissimilar situation, “I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.” Except what you conclude and I conclude can be different. Some matters haven’t been decided by the courts. Sometimes good lawyers can convince the courts that something is legal while the casinos wish it had been decided the other way.

For example: I play many games. While I have most of them mastered, I have many of the “semi-memorized.” On my cell phone, I have a Word document that lists the correct strategies for these games. I sometimes look at this strategy during play. Officially, in Nevada, this just may break the device law, while looking at the same strategy written on a piece of paper does not. This doesn’t make sense to me, but it might be the law. I use the argument, “Casinos aren’t likely to prosecute this,” to give me license to do it. Is this cheating? Not to me, but others disagree. Bob Nersesian, the best-known attorney for player-casino disputes has said if I did this and the casino took action against me, he would refuse to defend me. “The law is clear about this,” he has said. 

Assume a casino allowed its players in the top tier to have one day a month of 5x points, where the player got to choose which day was most convenient for her. Also assume a husband-and-wife team were both members of this tier. On one day a month they’d both play on his card, and on another day that month they’d both play on her card. To me, this is a smart, AP move. It certainly isn’t what the casino intended. Is it actually cheating? Al would probably think so, but I’m not sure. He is an unmarried 40-year-old (he can’t find a woman he likes who is as spiritual as himself, and this is his number one criterion). He’s played right next to me when I’ve hit a jackpot on Bonnie’s card, and he heard me explain the situation to the slot attendant. (Usually it’s no problem, but if a casino tells me not to do that in the future, I obey.) Al has never said a reproving word to me about this and he still considers me a good friend.

Now look at the players who have cards from 30 different players and basically live in that casino, playing with 5x points on a different card every day. To me this is clearly cheating. What’s the exact line between doing it on a spouse’s card and doing it on cards from “business partners?” I can’t tell you, but it’s something I feel strongly about.

Let’s say I have $1,000 in free play to pick up at a casino, but I won’t be in town during the time period the free play is active. I have a trusted friend who would be happy to play quarter video poker for an hour to redeem this in exchange for a $100 fee. Even if the casino has no better than 6/5 Bonus Poker (worth about 96.9%), the cost of playing $1,000 through is only a little more than $30 in expected value which is dwarfed by the size of the bonus. Before discussing whether I would do this or not, also consider a second case where it’s the same situation but this time I have $5 in free play to pick up. Also assume the casino would not be happy if it discovered somebody else was playing on my card.

Morally speaking, it makes no difference whether it’s $1,000 or $5 we’re talking about. It’s breaking the casino’s rules. Al would avoid this in both cases. For $5, though, I’d give that up without a qualm and for $1,000 I’d at least think about it pretty hard. Historically I have sometimes hired people to collect free play for me. Not always, but more than once.

My thoughts on this general subject have evolved over the years. Since I’ve been publishing my thoughts for close to 30 years, someone interested in proving that what I’m saying now conflicts with something I said a number of years ago could find evidence to support his view. I’m more interested in telling it like it is for me now than worrying about always being consistent with every thought I’ve had in the past.

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Is This Legal?

Bob Dancer

I received an email from a friend. He heard about what happened to a particular player and asked me if I thought it was legal. I’ll share what was reported, but keep in mind that I don’t know who it happened to, the skill of the player, or even in what state the casino is located. All of this information could affect my answer, but there are still interesting features to discuss.

A player, I’ll call him Joe, was playing loose video poker and the casino had a promotion giving a large point multiplier. The points were good for free play only and the multiplying of the points would happen sometime after the day of the play. After the promotion started, the casino figured out that players pounding their loosest games, which included Joe, had a sizeable advantage over the casino. The casino 86’d some of these players and did not let them redeem any of their multiplied points — claiming that the players who were playing these machines so hard during the promotion were indulging in a “free play scam.” 

Joe took it to gaming, claiming he was only playing a promotion that the casino offered. Gaming decided in favor of the casino — but didn’t explain to Joe why. Joe would not have played this game without the multiplier, so was stuck with playing a negative game. The friend who sent me the story told me he thought that casinos could 86 players, but he thought they had to pay out accumulated free play.

I have several comments on this.

  1. I often wish our Gambling with an Edge podcast was still happening, and this is one of those times. I would love to put this question to Bob Nersessian. While I have considerable experience and some expertise, Bob Nersessian is an attorney who specializes in player disputes with casinos. I’m sure he would ask where this happened because rules differ by jurisdiction.
  2. I don’t know whether this was a tribal casino or not. If so, all bets are off. Tribes have considerable discretion in enforcing policies however they see fit. It’s not impossible to sue and win in a situation involving a tribal casino, but it’s much tricker.
  3. I assume Joe represented himself when he went to gaming. Being represented by an attorney can improve your chances for success, but attorneys don’t work for free. I don’t know how much money was involved here. If it was a few hundred dollars, lawyers wouldn’t be interested in suing on a 1/3 contingency basis. If we’re talking $25,000 or more, attorneys will probably talk to you. (While I respect Nersessian and believe he’s handled these cases successfully in the past, I don’t speak for him. I don’t know Nersessian’s minimum amount, whether he has time for another case, or even if he is licensed in the jurisdiction where this took place.)
  4. There have been numerous cases through the years where a casino manager made a big mistake designing a promotion — and when players jumped all over it, chose to blame the players. This strikes me as another one of these cases. Some of these casino managers believe that players who play heavily on a promotion that was juicier than the promotion-designer imagined are actually scum and cheating the casino. Hence the accusation of “free play scam.”  To beat such an accusation, you need to have all the literature describing the promotion and be able to cross examine whoever is calling it a scam. A gaming representative isn’t going to do this. He/she is going take Joe’s statement, take the casino representative’s statement, and make some sort of judgment. Unless Joe demanded a hearing, whether he represented himself or had an attorney do it, he would have no chance to cross examine the casino representative.
  5. I’m most familiar with the gaming rules in Nevada, as that’s where I’ve played the most and heard about more disputes than I have in any other place. Generally speaking, if the casino owes you money in a case such as this, unless they are successfully making a case of fraud, you’ll get your money eventually. I’ve seen it where you can collect small amounts (say $25 per day) of this money, but if you go through the rigamarole, you’ll get your money. If they 86 you, as they did with Joe, they owe him the money when they kick him out because he’s not allowed to go in and collect it.
  6. In a somewhat similar situation where I was on the wrong end of a gaming ruling, the casino only awarded free play for accumulated points — not cash. Since I was 86’d I was not allowed to go in and play off that free play. So sorry. if the casino offered cash back rather than free play, I might have been able to collect.
  7. If a casino has published rules where it promises to deliver such and such, sometime Gaming will force them to honor that during a hearing. Most rules, therefore, have language in it where the casino reserves all rights and is the sole arbiter of disputes. Sometimes Gaming will honor this disclaimer. Sometimes not.
  8. Casino points and comp dollars can sometimes be confiscated — depending on more factors than I can cogently outline. Without knowing more details than I have, it’s possible that the casino was in the right. They were jerks about it, but within their rights. The multiplied points had not been given to Joe when he was 86’d — so it’s possible he’s not going to get them.
  9. Joe has a few options. The ruling in the casino’s favor can sometimes be appealed for a certain period of time. If that time has not elapsed, this is one option. Another option is in the court of public opinion. If what the casino did can be publicized, often the casino will settle in order to shut you up. Sometimes newspapers and/or television stations will publicize it if they are convinced the casino was in the wrong. One problem with this is that Joe’s name will be in this publicity and other casinos in the area may learn more about Joe than he wants them to know. Other casinos may well decide that Joe is too expert or too much of a troublemaker for their taste — and not allow Joe to play in their establishments. While it is legal for Joe to try to embarrass the casino for its high-handed actions, it’s also legal for other casinos to restrict Joe simply by saying, “He’s too good for us.”
  10. In the above situation, if the casino happens to be a big advertiser with whatever media you’d like to use to help you sway public opinion, media executives are often understandably cautious with biting the hand that feeds them. 

In similar cases, where the combination of earned free play and my winning has put me in position where I think it’s at least possible the casino will take some action I don’t like against me, I continually download as much money as I can, as I go. That way, when they stop me, they will not owe me a lot of money. If a casino owes me $5,000 when they pull the plug, and it was possible to retrieve that beforehand and I didn’t, this is arguably my own fault. In this particular case this might not have been possible, but in other cases it has been. In this particular case, where the additional free play would not be loaded until sometime in the future, Joe couldn’t possibly have redeemed points that hadn’t been loaded on his account yet.

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Should I Ask?

Bob Dancer

I was canvassing a casino looking for slot machines in favorable conditions. From 15 feet away I saw a Wolf Run Eclipse for $15 per pull. The numbers on the meters were high enough according to my guru, but not high enough according to most other sources. This is a good situation for me because most other pros would let the machine be. You can bet there were other slot pros circulating the casino. It’s a fact of life in most casinos these days.

There was a guy I’d never seen before sitting there with exactly $100 in credits. He didn’t have a player’s card inserted. He wasn’t playing the machine, but rather was talking flirtatiously to a young woman seated nearby. 

I tried to read the situation. Had he been dressed like a homeless person I would have concluded that he was trying to “sell” the machine to anyone who asked about it. After all, homeless people don’t play for $15 a hand generally. But he was clean-shaven and dressed nicely. He didn’t look homeless.

The fact that he had exactly $100 in credits indicated to me he had just put in a hundred-dollar bill and hadn’t started to play yet. I didn’t know what to make of the fact that he didn’t have a player’s card inserted. There are a number of possible explanations for that.

For a $15 game, $100 in credits wasn’t much ammunition. I might put in $500 or more before I hit the button the first time. It’s easier for me to keep track of how much money I’ve played if I put in $500 increments. I need this information so I can calculate wins and losses. But not everybody loads a machine before they start to play. Some players put in one bill at a time and only put in another bill when the credits get below the value of one hand.

I didn’t see anybody else hovering around waiting for him to leave. Which was good. Either this “opportunity” hadn’t been noticed by other pros yet, or the ones who had noticed didn’t think it was a good opportunity.

I went to check some nearby machines and returned in five minutes. Nothing had changed. He still had $100 in credits and was enjoying talking to the lady. I left to check some other machines, returning in another five minutes, and, again, nothing had changed.

Right or wrong, I decided to politely ask him if he was planning on playing that machine. I figured that possibly my asking him might be an impetus for him to take the lady for dinner or drinks or something. Or if he wanted to sell it to me, perhaps by suggesting I put in all the money and we split the winnings, I could deal with that. As I’ve written earlier, when that happens, I have no problem reporting him to a slot attendant. Usually, the slot attendant will tell him to either play the machine or get off of it. The fact that he had no players card in could indicate that he wasn’t planning on playing the machine anyway. My goal was to get the machine if it was going to become available soon — but not being rude about it.

 My hoped-for scenarios didn’t happen. He told me, also politely, that he was still planning on playing and the machine next to him was vacant. (Yes it was, but there was nothing playable on it.) I thanked him and moved on,

Twenty minutes later, I circled back, and the machine was vacant. I checked it and one of the minor meter (the one that was most attractive this time) was at reset — meaning that this guy, or somebody else, had played the game until it was no longer positive. Oh well, he found it first. I’ll find another game.

I’ve shared this story with a few of my pro friends. Some would have done the same. Some would have sat down at a nearby machine and just waited until the situation resolved itself. Some would have just walked on and never said a word to the guy. With this diversity of opinions, I’ve concluded that there is not a unique “correct” way to handle the situation — and my way was within acceptable limits.

What do you think?