I was reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in Economics. The part of the book that inspired this article was called “Regression to the Mean.” In this chapter, Kahneman recalled something he submitted when he was one of several scientists requested to report their “favorite equation.” Kahneman reported:
Success = Talent + Luck
Great Success = A Little More Talent + A Lot of Luck Continue reading The Secret to Success
In March, the Palms is giving away a 2013 Volkswagen Jetta every Saturday — along with other cash prizes. At the start of the month, I figured I’d play to earn entries for the car drawings on Saturday the 16th and Saturday the 30th. The weeks chosen were somewhat arbitrary and partly determined by other things that were going on in my world during the month.
For this type of drawing, you earn virtual entries based on your play. Different denomination machines earn entries at different rates and slots earn more tickets per coin-in than video poker. In addition, on Fridays and Saturdays between 8 p.m. and midnight, your play will generate 3x drawing entries. Continue reading Apples and Oranges
I recently played during a promotion at Planet Hollywood. Someone I didn’t recognize came up, told me his name was “John,” and stated that he’d purchased Video Poker for Winners during a class of mine several years ago. He said he’d learned a lot from it.
I try to be polite and talk with any player who recognizes me and comes up to say hi. I shook John’s proffered hand and agreed that yes, the program is very helpful, and that using it can save a player many thousands of dollars. John then went away. Continue reading There Should Be a Limit
There’s a book entitled The Invisible Gorilla by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons which explains, in part, how our perceptions and decisions can be distorted when our attention is not properly focused on the correct action or event. The authors created a film in which players with white shorts and players with black shorts passed basketballs to each other. Continue reading Keeping Focus
As you know, I’m primarily a video poker player, but I have played table games at the Palms often enough that I sometimes get mailers for their table games. For February, they sent me four “First Card is an Ace” coupons — one useable each week.
In blackjack, an ace as a first card is worth something like 57% of your bet. The exact percentage depends on the rules and the accuracy of your play, but for today’s article, 57% is close enough. The coupons need to be used on a 6-deck shoe game and I can bet anywhere from $10 to $100 with the coupons. Continue reading Changing Expectations
There’s a scandal involving former San Diego mayor Maureen O’Connor in which it was reported that she lost one billion dollars playing video poker. The U-T San Diego headline reads “How to lose $1 billion in video poker.” The problem is, however, that this never happened. It might be a clever headline designed to sell a lot of newspapers, but it is a grossly exaggerated number. Continue reading Losing $1 Billion at Video Poker — NOT
Different people use different types of logic. I try to use “deduction,” whereby I learn the general rule and then apply that to specific situations. A friend of mine, Abe, uses “induction,” which is to look at specific events and then form a general rule that these events will usually reoccur in similar situations. Continue reading Induction versus Deduction
For the past seventeen years, a number of blackjack professionals have met annually at an undisclosed Las Vegas location to swap war stories, renew acquaintances, and to challenge each other with various contests. This shindig is called the Blackjack Ball and is hosted by Max Rubin and Barona Casino. Although I’m a couple of decades removed from being a professional blackjack player, I am fortunate to have been invited the past two years. This is at least partially explained because my Gambling with an Edge co-host Richard Munchkin lobbied for my inclusion. Thank you, Munch! Continue reading The 2013 Blackjack Ball
This semester in my free video poker classes at the South Point, I’ll be teaching, among other games, 9/6 Double Double Bonus (DDB) (February 12), 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads (QQ) (February 19), and 9/6 Double Double Bonus Ten Play Ultimate X (UX)(February 26). These games have much in common with each other, but they also have significant differences. I see people playing both QQ and UX using “normal strategy.” That is a big mistake. Today’s column is dedicated to showing some of the differences among the games. Continue reading Odd Man Out
I’ve mentioned many times that on 2x point days at the South Point, I play 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads. This is a game that returns 99.65% when played well, and 2x points are worth 0.60%, so that gives me a 0.25% edge — plus a small amount for mailers. I play this game for dollar Ten Play where each bet is $60 because it’s a six-coins-per-line game. Continue reading Which Game to Play?
