Author: David Mckee

Station Casinos posted impressive 4Q22 numbers—if not as impressive to Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli as Boyd Gaming‘s. Still, net revenues were up 2% and cash flow improved 3.5% (Boyd did 7% and 13%, respectively.) Santarelli liked Station’s improved margins “as non-gaming revenue growth offset the modest casino revenue contraction in the period.” (Higher ADRs and food prices didn’t hurt.) He continued, “While the results could be perceived as being below recent expectations, we see limited signs of headwinds in the Las Vegas locals market, continued promotional disciplines across the market, and we believe the [Station] development pipeline remains a compelling attribute to the story.” He ratcheted his price target upward from $51/share to $53, applauding the company for having “the strongest organic growth pipeline in gaming.”

Top Gun: Maverick. OK, we’re kidding. But not entirely. Due to the Motion Picture Academy‘s byzantine, ranked-choice voting for Best Picture, the $1.5 billion-grossing Tom Cruise spectacle (+1000 on DraftKings) could rack up enough second- and third-place votes to nab the top prize. That being said, oddsmakers still have this as the year of Everything Everywhere All At Once (-280). We could be set for a reprise of 1978, when Star Wars ruled the box office but Annie Hall ran the table at the Oscars. (Neither film has fared badly with posterity.) Everything Everywhere All At Once scores the Academy trifecta of being a commercial hit—a $104 million return on a $14 million outlay—offbeat and upbeat, a combination that reliably spells “win.” The second closest rival to Everything is the equally splendid but downbeat The Banshees of Inisherin (+300) and it’s having a tough time closing the gap in the betting lines. As for Steven Spielberg‘s The Fabelmans, its momentum appears to have peaked at the Golden Globes lovefest. It’s now at +1200 and Spielberg’s Best Director odds have faded to +120.

Wall Street analysts got an early look at Penn Entertainment‘s 4Q22 earnings, which were mildly adverse and poorer than The Street expected, and which point to a flat trajectory going forward through the early summer. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli described the preview as “realistic, though likely uninspiring guidance.” Revenues were 3% down in 4Q22, revenue was $1.4 billion and cash flow slipped 5%. To encourage stock analysts (per Santarelli), “Management noted challenging weather in December, while also noting strength in the final week of the month and a continuation of strength into January. The Deutsche Bank analyst blamed the underperformance on new competition, “as well as the impact of same-store revenue headwinds on margins.” The interactive segment (excluding Barstool Sports) also pulled down the numbers somewhat, which some fingered on John “Mattress Mack” McIngvale and his big World Series win.

Wall Street was in a sunny mood this week after Las Vegas Sands‘ 4Q22 earnings presentation. As Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken summarized, “two large takeaways in our view were strength in Singapore and what we felt was a positive tone from [management] concerning the trajectory of Macau, due to pent-up demand potential.” Normally we bristle at the overused phrase “pent-up demand” but early indicators from Red China are that gamblers are champing at the bit to get into Macao.

Cash flow at Marina Bay Sands was well ahead of The Street’s expectation, hitting $386 million at gambling monies reached an all-time high. Chaiken said Macanese trends have “accelerated” heading into Chinese New Year—in which visitation is at 40% of 2019 numbers—and that Sands is on course to post positive ROI again. But, wrote Chaiken, “the Singapore rebound (faster than we expected) could provide insight into what a Macau recovery could look like,” especially when achieved with air travel into Singapore that is still constrained at two-thirds of pre-Covid levels.