Top Gun: Maverick. OK, we’re kidding. But not entirely. Due to the Motion Picture Academy‘s byzantine, ranked-choice voting for Best Picture, the $1.5 billion-grossing Tom Cruise spectacle (+1000 on DraftKings) could rack up enough second- and third-place votes to nab the top prize. That being said, oddsmakers still have this as the year of Everything Everywhere All At Once (-280). We could be set for a reprise of 1978, when Star Wars ruled the box office but Annie Hall ran the table at the Oscars. (Neither film has fared badly with posterity.) Everything Everywhere All At Once scores the Academy trifecta of being a commercial hit—a $104 million return on a $14 million outlay—offbeat and upbeat, a combination that reliably spells “win.” The second closest rival to Everything is the equally splendid but downbeat The Banshees of Inisherin (+300) and it’s having a tough time closing the gap in the betting lines. As for Steven Spielberg‘s The Fabelmans, its momentum appears to have peaked at the Golden Globes lovefest. It’s now at +1200 and Spielberg’s Best Director odds have faded to +120.
Continue reading And the Oscar goes to …Author: David Mckee
Boyd buoyed; Penn damned with faint praise; Mega-Jottings
It was a good day yesterday for Boyd Gaming as it trotted out its 4Q22 numbers. Cash flow healthily overshot Wall Street expectations and was powered by, among other things, better-than-2019 visitation by that Boyd mainstay, players from Hawaii. Wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, “The growth in Locals was driven by destination business (tourists and out-of-towners) and non-gaming operations (we note that these trends have to be very positive for Red Rock Resorts who has yet to report) and continued strength in play from its core customers.” Despite softness in Louisiana and Mississippi, Boyd improved its numbers in the Midwest and South, helped along by strength in the online segment and by performance-based management fees from successful, new Sky River Casino near Sacramento.
Continue reading Boyd buoyed; Penn damned with faint praise; Mega-JottingsA peek at Penn; DraftKings retreats, Aruze tumbles
Wall Street analysts got an early look at Penn Entertainment‘s 4Q22 earnings, which were mildly adverse and poorer than The Street expected, and which point to a flat trajectory going forward through the early summer. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli described the preview as “realistic, though likely uninspiring guidance.” Revenues were 3% down in 4Q22, revenue was $1.4 billion and cash flow slipped 5%. To encourage stock analysts (per Santarelli), “Management noted challenging weather in December, while also noting strength in the final week of the month and a continuation of strength into January. The Deutsche Bank analyst blamed the underperformance on new competition, “as well as the impact of same-store revenue headwinds on margins.” The interactive segment (excluding Barstool Sports) also pulled down the numbers somewhat, which some fingered on John “Mattress Mack” McIngvale and his big World Series win.
Continue reading A peek at Penn; DraftKings retreats, Aruze tumblesOhio dips; Bally’s unplugged; Macao booms
Here’s one for those of you who believe gambling is facing a recession: Revenue in Ohio fell 2% last month (yes, it took the Buckeye State until February to report December’s numbers). The haul was $193 million, which was still 14% better than the end of 2019, if that’s any consolation. MGM Northfield Park maintained its market-leading status with $24 million, up 5.5%. But there was a surprise challenger: Jack Cleveland, close behind with $23.5 million, an 8.5% gain. Other racinos that were revenue-positive (like MGM Northfield) were Scioto Downs, up 2% to $19.5 million and doughty Hollywood Mahoning Valley, up 3% to $13 million. Miami Valley Gaming was flat at $19 million.
Continue reading Ohio dips; Bally’s unplugged; Macao boomsNevada closes 2022 roaring; Lombardo’s big blunder
Gambling grosses for last month have been tallied and it’s an understatement to say they’re boffo. Nevada casinos raked in $1.3 billion, a 14% leap over 2021. You can see why we think that—as it pertains to gaming—a recession is “the most overhyped narrative of the last year.” It simply refuses to manifest itself. That’s especially true of the Las Vegas Strip, which vaulted 25% to $814 million. Downtown took it on the kisser, down 7% to $69 million. Hopefully, new product at the Fremont Hotel can help reverse that before it becomes a trend. The Boulder Strip also had a rough month, slipping 8% to $64 million.
However, long-anemic North Las Vegas was up 5% to $25 million and miscellaneous Clark County was flat at $137 million. Laughlin hopped 8% to $32 million, while Utah-facing Mesquite and Wendover were bonny, jumping 11.5% and 20%, respectively ($16 million and $22 million). Snowbirds avoided Lake Tahoe, which tumbled 16% to $15.5 million whilst Reno was up 6% to $59 million. A lot of mixed signals, yes, but more pluses than minuses.
Continue reading Nevada closes 2022 roaring; Lombardo’s big blunderCase Bets
What do you do when there’s no really big story of the day? Bust out an order of Case Bets, what else. Let the fun begin …
Rivers Portsmouth has already had a come-to-Jesus moment after its pro-smoking stance revolted patrons. (One activist likened the existence of a smoking section in the casino to a “peeing section” in a public pool.) Well sorta. Rush Street Gaming‘s rather lame excuse was to erect signage designating where smoking can and cannot be practiced … as though the smoke itself will obey the signs. And guests continue to complain. The pervasive smoke has contributed heavily to Rivers’ dismal 3.2 rating on Google. “I won’t be back because my post-COVID asthma and congenital heart condition cannot be around smoking,” grumbled one customer.
Continue reading Case BetsSands impresses; Trump’s new Mob pal; Boardwalk blotter; Mega-Jottings
Wall Street was in a sunny mood this week after Las Vegas Sands‘ 4Q22 earnings presentation. As Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken summarized, “two large takeaways in our view were strength in Singapore and what we felt was a positive tone from [management] concerning the trajectory of Macau, due to pent-up demand potential.” Normally we bristle at the overused phrase “pent-up demand” but early indicators from Red China are that gamblers are champing at the bit to get into Macao.
Cash flow at Marina Bay Sands was well ahead of The Street’s expectation, hitting $386 million at gambling monies reached an all-time high. Chaiken said Macanese trends have “accelerated” heading into Chinese New Year—in which visitation is at 40% of 2019 numbers—and that Sands is on course to post positive ROI again. But, wrote Chaiken, “the Singapore rebound (faster than we expected) could provide insight into what a Macau recovery could look like,” especially when achieved with air travel into Singapore that is still constrained at two-thirds of pre-Covid levels.
Continue reading Sands impresses; Trump’s new Mob pal; Boardwalk blotter; Mega-JottingsBluhm blows smoke; Detroit declines; Bally’s sheds jobs
No, that isn’t a new big-box retail outlet (which its entrance rather resembles) but Rivers Portsmouth, the first permanent casino to open in Virginia. On hand were Allen Iverson, a marching band, a gaggle of local politicians … and the noxious odor of tobacco smoke. Comments harvested by Americans for Nonsmokers Rights included such gems as “This is just not OK” and “I will never come here again.” That’s not what Rush Street Gaming execs want to hear, less stil, “I think it’s backwards, archaic, disgusting and I won’t come here ever again.” Opined player Beth Grimes, “I hadn’t even sat down yet to play a game. I’m leaving. I’ve been in this building 30 minutes walking around, and all of a sudden, as more people have come in and sat down, they’re smoking, smoking, smoking.” Also irked was Norfolk resident David Spry: “I finally quit and I’m not going to be putting myself into a position where I’m going to get second-hand smoke.” Nor should he.
Continue reading Bluhm blows smoke; Detroit declines; Bally’s sheds jobsThe popularity of parlays
Being busy on other fronts today (tune or surf in at 9 a.m. PST to KNPR‘s State of Nevada, we’re turning S&G over for the day to Samuel of Sports Smart Betting. If you like his work, you may see it here on a recurring basis. After all, sports betting is dominating the gambling conversation today. For his initial topic, Sam explains the …
Reasons why parlay bets are so popular
1. Parlay bets can offer higher payouts: These types of bets typically have higher payouts than single bets because of the multiplicative effect of more selection in a single bet slip. This can be attractive to bettors looking for a chance to win big even if they take several times more risks.
Continue reading The popularity of parlaysCaesars surprises Wall Street; Rincon defects; Bluhm to NYC?
Since the Roman Empire is not given to pre-announcing earnings (it leaves that to MGM Resorts International), its tribunes must have had some pretty good end-of-year numbers to trot out, which they did this morning. The headline, at least as far as J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff was concerned was that the results were pretty much as expected and Caesars Entertainment is reducing its digital losses. That’s all favorable news for investors, so let’s read on, shall we? The Las Vegas Strip continued to boom but, due to “harsh December weather” (tell us about it), regional revenues were a trifle squishy, negatively impacting cash flow by as much as $15 million. Caesars Sportsbook would have posted positive ROI—were it not for a $30 million bad beat delivered by John “Mattress Mack” McIngvale. Win some, lose some.
Continue reading Caesars surprises Wall Street; Rincon defects; Bluhm to NYC?