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Indiana, what’s up?; Shuberts take on Caesars in NYC

Gaming revenue in Indiana cooled somewhat last month, as casinos banked $207.5 million, a 3% drop from last year, albeit still 16% higher than 2019. (No elaborate 2019 comparisons will be drawn because that year saw two Majestic Star boats in operations and no Hard Rock, so it’s apples and oranges.) No fiscal worries for Hard Rock Northern Indiana, way out in front with $36 million, a 12% leap. Closest competitor Horseshoe Hammond ceded 8% to finish with a still-robust $29 million, while Ameristar East Chicago tumbled 23.5% to $16 million. Blue Chip rounded out the northern tier with $11 million, a 12% drop. Horseshoe Indianapolis had an excellent month, up 2.5% to $28 million, while Harrah’s Hoosier Downs slipped 7% to $20 million.

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Atlantic City slideshow & sideshow; Mega-Jottings

Something different today from the Boardwalk: A first glimpse of new-look Caesars Atlantic City. That $400 million in capex reinvestment didn’t go to waste. There’s now a Nobu (above) and a Hell’s Kitchen (below), “both high-quality work and high prices,” says our East Coast photojournalist. Wild Wild West is all but completely gutted, its next iteration as yet unknown—something less rinky-dink, we hope.

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Wynn impresses; Curse of the Mummy’s Tomb; Culinary bombs

Wall Street analysts were across-the-board upbeat on Wynn Resorts‘ 3Q22 performance, as high-end casinos in Las Vegas continue to flourish. Although he categorized himself as “neutral,” given the evolving situation in Macao, analyst Joseph Greff of J.P. Morgan encapsulated third-quarter sentiment with “Upside in Las Vegas and smaller than forecasted losses in Macau.” Sounds pretty good to us. More specifically, Wynn beat expectations, largely on the strength of Sin City, backstopped by Boston. Interestingly, as Greff said, in Macao the company’s casinos—absent the junket middlemen—picked up a solid amount of direct VIP play during Golden Week, better even than in 2019. (Its retail component recovered to three-fourths of pre-Covid business.)

Greff was dismissive of the significance of Tilman Fertitta‘s big buy-in of WYNN shares, writing, “we think this relates more to an industry person seeing value in the stock rather than eventually angling for a transaction or M&A.” Wynn CEO Craig Billings agreed, telling investors, “What I can say is kudos to him, because he’s done quite well since it appears he has started acquiring during the second quarter when the stock was excessively cheap. It’s actually right around when we were buying back stock as well. It’s a great recognition of the value of our equity.”

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Election Special: Gaming, tribes lose big

Although only 41% of all precincts have reported, it’s clear that both tribal and private-sector gaming suffered a stunning defeat in California last night. Both the tribes’ Proposition 26 and Big Gaming’s Proposition 27 are losing—and by wider margins than expected. 70% of Californians voted “no” on Prop 26 and 83% nixed Prop 27. The only clear winners in this scenario are the Golden State’s card rooms, which surely would have been litigated out of existence had Prop 26 passed (due to some fine print in the ballot measure).

Prop 27’s backers are now spinning that this was just a dry run for 2024. Before anybody files another ballot initiative, we urge both sides to come to the table and try to hammer out their differences. This would include A) tribal-private partnerships, B) a lower cost of entry, unlike Prop 27’s minimum of $10 million, C) a reasonable tax rate such as Prop 26’s 10% and D) no more dissembling about what your proposition is about, like ending homelessness. It’s about sports betting—and voters saw clear through you. Oh, and ixnay the hundreds of millions of dollars in attack ads; it’s a surefire path to defeat.

In other news …

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Bread and circuses

Christians throw themselves to this lion.

Inflation or no, there is one quantifiable, incontestable fact about the American consumer. He or she is spending more—way more—on gambling than before Covid-19 and more than last year, when they had stimulus money to burn. So if there are fewer presents under the Christmas tree, maybe the economy isn’t to blame. Big Gaming’s poster child for its current prosperity has to be Maryland, where last month’s gambling losses were 37.5% higher than 2021 and 48% over pre-pandemic 2019 for a total haul of $213 million. That may be peanuts by Las Vegas standards but it’s the biggest casino month in the history of the Free State.

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DraftKings tumbles big-time; Big Gaming bets on red

“It’s kind of fun to do the impossible,” said Walt Disney. For the leadership of DraftKings, “the impossible” would include finding a path to near-term profitability. DKNG reported 3Q22 numbers late last week and J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff called the projected, year-end negative return on investment “worse than expected.” And it gets more adverse next year, when DraftKings is expected to return [sic] $110 million more negative ROI than Wall Street anticipated. “This is disappointing as this outlook follows recent 3Q22 earnings commentary from DKNG’s OSB/Digital competitors … who have talked up an accelerated path to profitability and suggests that DKNG is lagging peers on a path to positive EBITDA generation.” Oh sure, DraftKings might produce a positive ROI … in 14 months or maybe break even in 2024. But the company continues to get less bang for its buck, in terms of revenue and market share than (privately held) rival Fan Duel.

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MGM, Penn disappoint, Golden droops; Tilman’s gambit

Dragged down the golden albatross that is Macao, earnings of MGM Resorts International missed analysts’ projections by a whopping $1.61 per share for a 3Q22 loss of $1.39/share. More’s the pity, as MGM did so many things right. Wall Street expected 91.5% Las Vegas Strip room occupancy; MGM delivered 93%. The Street anticipated $3.2 billion in quarterly revenue; MGM saw that and raised it by $200 million. But Macao missed analyst estimates (which can’t have been very high to begin with) by 18%, eking out $87.5 million. J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff dismissed the quarterly numbers as “more of the same,” while Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli was slightly more clement, calling the results “some bumps, but broadly solid.”

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Caesars Strip-tease; Slot flea swatted; Biden targets resort fees

In the end, all that talk of Caesars Entertainment selling a Las Vegas Strip asset was just a sham. The company probably couldn’t find any takers for the Flamingo at CEO Tom Reeg‘s preposterous asking price (ditto his equally preposterous conditions for vending Planet Hollywood). Reeg’s explanation was “We ran into a market where the cash flow of the asset continued to increase and the ability of buyers to raise financing made it a very easy decision for us to keep.” Never mind that his decision blows a $1 billion-$2.5 billion hole in the strategy to pay down the company’s groaning $13.3 billion debt load. (If there is a recession, God forbid, Caesars will be in a boatload of trouble.) In the end, nobody was going to pay $2.5 billion for the Flamingo and even Planet Ho would be a heavy lift at that price.

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Atlantic City beat; MGM Cotai padlocked; Adelson buys Abbott

“Did Bally’s open a casino in Atlantic City and forget to tell anyone about it?” So asks our East Coast correspondent. “This is Bally’s yesterday (Sunday). A few casinos here would have more customers during a snow storm than this.” As though to prove their cluelessness, Bally’s Corp. mailed its faithful Boardwalk customers a lengthy flier touting the Tuesday promotions (including the blue-plate specials) at Dover Downs, right? Nope … Bally’s Vicksburg. What a waste of time, money and bandwidth. And this is the company that’s supposed to elevate Chicago into the casino major leagues?

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Station accentuates positives; Wynn gets richer, Adelson poorer

Do Station Casinos execs really want to double their footprint in seven years? Yesterday they reported flat 3Q22 revenues of $414.5 million, all but $3 million of which were Vegas-derived, unwittingly highlighting the company’s exposure to a single market. Company leadership promised better times ahead—and soon. CFO Stephen Cootey spun the disappointing first blush by pointing out that, on a same-store basis, it was the best third quarter in the company’s history. Although foot traffic was flat with 2Q22, Cootey said spending trends are strong, with F&B recording its best third quarter ever. While pledging not to look into his crystal ball, CEO Frank Fertitta III said, “We don’t see anything that would suggest that it will be any different than it has been historically, other than the last third quarter, when we had a bunch of stimulus money in the economy that may have made things a little harder to read.” In other words, comparisons to to 3Q21 don’t count.

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