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Normality in Ohio, disaster in Illinois; Planet Ho sale mooted

Maybe the ‘skinny stimulus’ helped Ohio. Gross gaming revenues of $153.5 million were only 8.5% off last year’s pace. The gambling houses are still operating at 50% capacity and under a curfew but the number remains impressive. Hollywood Toledo continues to benefit from the closures in Detroit (recently lifted), up 14.5% to $18 million. Hollywood Columbus declined 12%, also to $18 million. As for Penn National Gaming‘s two racinos, Hollywood Mahoning Valley grossed $12 million, minus 3% and Hollywood Dayton, up 6.5%, also pocketed $11 million. Belterra Park showed signs of stabilization, down 9% to $6.5 million. Scioto Downs had a good month, down only 1% for $15.5 million. MGM Northfield Park was in a three-way tie for first place, grossing $18 million (a 21.5% tumble). Jack Cleveland, now with 100% less Dan Gilbert, was down 10% to $16.5 million whilst Jack Thistledown gained 13% to $13 million. Hard Rock Cincinnati continues to struggle, plunging 34% to $12.5 million. That only leaves Miami Valley Gaming, down 12% to $14 million.

An extra weekend day may have helped Ohio but it didn’t do squat for Illinois, where gambling revenues fell a catastrophic 74%. How come? Casinos were closed half the month, had to shut down nightly at 11 p.m. and were restricted to 25% of capacity. Whatever pent-up demand existed wasn’t sufficient to even partly compensate. Gross gaming revenues were a pitiful $26 million. Heck, Rivers Casino Des Plaines does that and more in a good month. In this case, Rivers towered over the market with $9 million (-77%) with nobody else coming close. In terms of retaining pre-Covid market share, Boyd Gaming‘s Par-A-Dice did best, off 46% to $2.5 million. Jumer’s Casino Rock Island continues to look like a terrible investment for Bally Corp., eking out $1 million (-72%). It did incrementally worse than DraftKings at Casino Queen, just over $1 million and -82%.

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Welcome to Less Vegas

Caesars Entertainment, aka Eldorado Resorts, has become possessed by the evil spirit of spare-every-expense Columbia Sussex. In one of the most odious of recent cutpurse moves, bartenders have been ordered to short-pour liquor: The ‘new normal’ is .75 ounces per drink, meaning you’ll have to buy more drinks in order to get that buzz going. Caesars has been the prime offender in recent moves such as jacked-up table limits but this story, broken by Vital Vegas, has clearly struck a nerve, going viral in no time flat. (Viral Vegas?) CEO Tom Reeg had already established a reputation for cheeseparing but this move couldn’t have been better designed to alienate customers if he tried. Much more of this and Sin City will lose its cachet as a bargain destination, if it hasn’t already.

To get to the nub of the issue, Linq has essentially halved the amount of liquor that will be poured into your Vodka Cranberry but will of course charge you just as much for it as though it were actually a stiff drink. (It’s 1.25 oz. per pour at MGM Resorts International, in case you wondering.) Vital Vegas paid a visit to Linq and found it in a significantly down-market state: “there were virtually no customers. Entire swaths of table games have been removed and replaced with slot machines. Such moves make some sense given low demand (table games involve much higher labor costs), but even if these changes are temporary, you’d think casinos would want to draw customers, not repel them with weak drinks.” Indeed.

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Wynn surprises few; Maryland stabilizes, Iowa impresses

It’s earnings-report time for Wynn Resorts and JP Morgan analyst, Joseph Greff, for one, is feeling blasé about the numbers. “Overall, we’d characterize the quarter as in line with investors’ recent expectations, and its earnings conference call outlook commentary as appropriately hinged on a resumption of travel that is predicated on a decline of COVID-19 infection rates and an acceleration of vaccination rates,” he wrote. Luckily for Wynn, its preferred Macao sector (premium mass-market) is outperforming the mass-market and VIP ones. While Sands China saw a 61% plunge in table-game wagering, Wynn had a victory of sorts by being down only 51%. Wagering volumes in Las Vegas were described as “impressive,” thanks to weekend play and California drive-in business. 4Q20 table game and slot handle were 72% and 85% of comparable 2019 levels, which bodes well for recovery. Still, Greff thought cash flow would be “stuck” at recent levels until Coronavirus vaccines are more widely promulgated.

The Morgan analyst shaved five bucks off his target price for WYNN, to $119/share, but encouraged buying on any downticks in the stock. Early-2021 cash flow projections were more optimistic for Wynncore (-4%) than Macao (-27%), but rosiest of all for Encore Boston Harbor, given a 16% boost. Internet gaming is slow to obtain traction, posting a $38 million negative return on investment. Looking over the horizon, Greff sees Wynncore gaining 5% more cash flow, bringing it to 93% of 2019 levels. Macao is dicier, only 83% of 2019 levels, led by slot play. VIP win is predicted to be 36% of 2019. At least Wynn Palace appears to have turned the corner, dwarfing Wynn Macau in EBITDA. Cash flow from all sources was $70 million for 4Q20, with Macao contributing $39.5 million and Vegas $21 million (on $173 million in revenue). Those numbers were above expectations and, going forward, “3Q/4Q events are hanging in (at least for now).” Whew.

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Penn survives bad quarter; Summer gaming recover possible

Penn National Gaming reported 4Q20 earnings today and they were down 23% from last year. Many reasons were cited, including lower consumer spending, casino closures in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and new restrictions in Ohio and Maine. Oh yes, and Covid-19. Fortunately for Penn, it had done a sufficiently good job of lowering expectations that Wall Street wasn’t fazed by the numbers. After the New Year ‘skinny stimulus,’ Penn is describing January business as “thus far encouraging,” with more foot traffic and longer stays. Sports betting is also providing a critical boost. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote that Penn “is continuing to see encouraging growth in the younger demographic tiers of its database, and expects the roll-out of vaccinations will encourage more guests in all age segments of its database to return to land-based facilities soon.”

The company is hardly on the ropes, having $1.9 billion cash on hand plus a $670 million line of credit. It also continues to retire debt, a good sign. Barstool Sports has had over 72,000 sign-ups and has generated $300 million in handle. Its Michigan rollout was even bigger than the Pennsylvania one, engendering $3 million in revenue. Half of the handle was placed on bets exclusive to Barstool. It’s a rising tide that’s lifting all boats: Penn says the gaming positions near its sports books are seeing higher traffic. Specifically, at Ameristar East Chicago table game and slot volumes were up 26.5% near its Barstool book. The news is nothing but good, with Penn expecting to be live in 10 states by year’s end and with Barstool’s social-media following having grown 20% (to 105,000) from when Penn took its 36% Barstool stake, making CEO Jay Snowden look like an absolute genius.

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Quote of the Day

“And, honestly, a group of spider monkeys throwing darts at the 2020 release schedule would have done a better job than the Hollywood Foreign Press Association this time around.”—Boston Globe film critic Ty Burr on the head-scratching Golden Globes nominations.

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Hawaiians avoid Las Vegas

Pent-up demand, huh? Not in Hawaii, according to KHON-TV in Honolulu. It reveals that Hawaiian Vacations had been planning to resume charter flights to Sin City (Boyd Gaming‘s bread and butter) in December but called it off due to a lack of traction with customers. “We just didn’t have enough people comfortable and ready to book to send 767 aircrafts, 218-passenger planes to Vegas,” said Sales & Promotions Director Kevin Kaneshiro. The company has retrenched and is now planning a June 1 relaunch. Reports KHON, “The plan is to have three flights a week with departures on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Fridays. With considerably more people getting vaccinated and some restrictions likely to be lifted, Kaneshiro says people will be ready for a true vacation.” That includes air, hotel and meals all in one value-oriented package. “[I]t’s pretty much everything except the baggage handling,” Kaneshiro explains. Customers will be put up at the California Hotel or Fremont Hotel.

As for Main Street Station, no reopening has been announced and we don’t expect one before summer. Boyd is using its in the meantime as a Covid-19 testing facility, so that travelers returning to the 50th state don’t have to go through 10-day quarantines upon arrival home. According to Hawaiian Vacations, whatever uptick in demand exists is coming from the younger clientele, with senior citizens understandably fighting shy until they’ve had their shots. We expect Las Vegas to be back in a big way at some point but if Las Vegas Sands CEO Rob Goldstein says it won’t be until next year we’re prepared to take him at his word.

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Bailout for Tilman; Casinos to the Big Apple; Mega-Jottings

It was a $6.6 billion rescue package that Golden Nugget CEO Tilman Fertitta received, in the form of a merger with FAST Acquisition. Fertitta’s been hard up for cash and forks over a portion of his casino empire in return for some badly needed liquidity. The deal gives FAST “voting control and ownership by the Company of approximately 31 million shares, or nearly half of all outstanding shares in Golden Nugget Online Gaming (NASDAQ:GNOG) … Mr. Fertitta will also be the company’s largest shareholder, with an approximately 60 percent interest in the company and stock valued upon the closing of the transaction in excess of $2 billion dollars.” The Nuggets will also be getting a $1.4 billion infusion of public equity capital. FAST stock hopped 20% on the news. The Bubba Gump’s, Chart House, Del Frisco’s, Mastro’s and Morton’s restaurant chains are also included in the deal, for which some feel gaming was an afterthought. However, the Nuggets have been outperforming the rest of the casino industry in recent stages of the pandemic. Public investors, take heart: 4% of the company will still be put up for sale.

A casino in Times Square? It could happen. L&L Holding Co. has pitched the idea of a $2.5 billion megaresort at 1568 Broadway, part of a larger, mixed-use development (hotel, retail, concert hall, all that jazz). Not having gaming experience, L&L is looking for a joint-venture partner (Las Vegas Sands, take heed). This isn’t the only casino being proposed for Manhattan: a Herald Square one has been floated by Vornado Realty Trust. Both developers seem to be banking on economic and political pressure to accelerate the 2023 deadline for opening New York City to full-fledged casinos. At present, L&L is proceeding, in part, with EB-5 loans from foreign investors, a business model with which Las Vegas is well acquainted.

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Case Bets

More than 23 million Americans are expected to bet legally or otherwise on the Super Bowl, according to the American Gaming Association, which predicts $4.3 billion in handle. 7.5 million punters will be doing their wagering online, 63% more than last year. The action leans heavily (56%) toward the Kansas City Chiefs—sorry, GOAT—with 12 million citizens betting against friends, as opposed to 1.5 million using retail sports bookies, down 61% from last year, before Covid-19 struck. Action with Lefty in the back alley will be patronized by nearly two million Americans, down 21%, a sign of progress. Speaking of progress, the AGA says, “34 percent of Americans remember seeing responsible gaming messaging in the past year, up five points from 2020. Super Bowl bettors were even more likely to see responsibility content, with 53 percent seeing responsible gaming messaging in the past year.” As AGA prexy Bill Miller puts it, “Responsible gaming is core to legal sports betting’s long-term success, and this is borne out by continued demand for consumer protections only available in the legal market.”

More Illinois sports betting data is out, with $41 million in revenue realized on $449 million in November handle. Surprisingly, the #1 revenue spot was not held by DraftKings Casino Queen but “DFS Operator #2,” otherwise known as FanDuel, with $14.5 million. DraftKings was second with $12.5 million, followed by BetRivers‘ $11.5 million, while PointsBet made the board with $2 million. For handle, DraftKings led market share with 37%, then BetRivers’ 29.5%, followed by FanDuel’s 25% and PointsBet’s 6%, way down from its October 14%.

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