
No, we don’t mean the Reddit/GameStop scandal, which has everyone from Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) up in arms. Instead, we’re looking at a downgrade of revenue estimates for a slew of projections by JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, who adds that “[We] prefer to buy on pullbacks, generally.” So it’s not exactly bad news. Noting a rise in Covid-19 infections and corresponding “impact of casino restrictions on regional gaming visitation and spend,” Greff trimmed his estimates and rethought his price target for a who’s-who of regional gaming: Churchill Downs, Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, Golden Entertainment, Penn National Gaming, Station Casinos and Scientific Gaming. While lowering his forecast for 1Q21, Greff said 2Q21 would be “modestly better.” This doesn’t jib with the optimistic picture painted yesterday by American Gaming Association President Bill Miller, whose advocacy body does its own revenue tracking.
Greff elaborated that “vaccination hopes (which we share theoretically) allow for a more pronounced and sustainable consumer spend recovery starting in the 3Q21; we also know what marketing and staffing changes have been made—some of which are permanent—and have conviction that forward-year margins should be decently higher than pre-COVID-19 levels.” He added that gaming had been bolstered through a soft brick-and-mortar period by gains in sports betting and Internet play. He stuck with his price target for Station ($31/share) and added two bucks to his Boyd goal (to $54). The reasons have been well-rehearsed in this space, so we’ll skip them for now. He really likes Caesars, upping his target $6 to $89/share, noting that its William Hill purchase and i-gaming strategy are firming up nicely. “Additionally, CZR is attractively positioned for the return of the 55+ customer base to its casinos (we think this gains momentum along with vaccine distribution). During this period of COVID-19 related lockdowns/limited discretionary spend, many 55+ Caesars Rewards members have benefitted from increased savings and record-high home values and stock prices.”





Were Adelson still around and the First Circuit had upheld the 2019 revision, he wound have found himself in an awkward position. Earlier this week, ace reporter James Rutherford 