Sometimes I post on the www.videopoker.com forum. Compared to the players who frequent the vpFREE forum, on average the players on the videopoker.com forum are more recreation-oriented. They typically aren’t as knowledgeable about video poker. Still, everybody has to start somewhere.
One such recreational player was debating my definition of playing video poker with an advantage. I include the game itself, slot club, mailers, promotions, drawings, etc. He argued that including drawings in the calculations was improper because drawings involve so much luck.
This player primarily plays for low stakes at one particular casino near his home in Florida. It’s possible that a) this particular casino doesn’t offer drawings, b) he only goes in the daytime mid-week and refuses to be there at 7 p.m. on a Friday night, and/or c) he plays little enough that his chances in a drawing would be pretty slim. Hence for him, drawings aren’t relevant and, by extension, he figures they shouldn’t count for other people either.
Many of us, however, frequent one or more casinos where drawings are part of the benefit package. We have learned over time that the drawings are worth about 0.25% of coin-in at one casino and maybe 0.05% at another. This calculation is based on our personal results and those of other players who play similar games.
Obviously, the more data points you have, the better estimate you’re able to get. If you get lucky and win $10,000 in your first drawing, having only one ticket in a big barrel, you will get quite a distorted picture of how much drawings are worth. Similarly, if you “strike out” three drawings in a row and conclude the drawings aren’t worth anything, that’s distorted as well.
Another way to calculate the value of drawings is by annual results. The amount you win every year in drawings will fluctuate widely. You might win $12,000 one year, $1,000 the next, and $5,000 the next. While that averages $6,000 a year, it’s wrong to conclude you’ll win exactly $6,000 through drawings in 2016. But if you typically play $3 million a year coin-in, it’s fair to conclude that drawings are worth “about” 0.2% for you.
With drawings like that, 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%) with a quarter percent slot club and no mailers becomes an even game — assuming you can play the game close to perfectly (which is an heroic assumption for many players, but it’s actually the easiest game to learn well). Any mailers at all, or other non-drawing promotions, and the game becomes positive. The value of comps is in addition to all of this.
Why is it important for me to include drawings in my score? One reason is that the existence or absence of relevant drawings affects my decision on where to play and how much to play. At stakes I want to play, the only available games return under 100% in and of themselves. Since playing games without an advantage is against my religion, I look for ways to increase my return on the game.
If I played 9/5 Jacks or Better (98.45%) with a good slot club and a good mailer and possibly some appearance money, that could easily turn out better than 9/6 Jacks or Better with lesser benefits. I don’t much care from where the benefits come. Each casino at which I play has a different mix. And that mix sometimes includes “decent” drawings.
Not all drawings are worth the same, of course. There is EV (which means the average return for you) and variance. A high variance drawing would be one winner gets $100,000 and everybody else gets zero. A low variance drawing is where 200 people share in $100,000, each getting somewhere between $200 and $5,000.
Some drawings give everyone at least a few free tickets. I don’t much like those drawings and they are usually worth zero to me. Some drawings limit the number of entries to 50 or so per day. I don’t much like those either. I want a drawing where I can earn as many tickets as I want. That’s because I am well-financed and willing to hammer the machines for higher-than-average stakes if I perceive an advantage. You may well have a different set of priorities. No problem. Choose the drawings that are best for you.
Also, since I live in Las Vegas, it’s relatively easy for me to be at a particular drawing here. (Sometimes it requires a discussion with Bonnie about doing something “better” with her. Sometimes she gets her way. Sometimes she lets me get my way). This is not a trivial matter. If it’s a must-be-there-to-win drawing and you can’t be there, you might as well not have any tickets in the barrel.
It’s also necessary to pick and choose. There are frequently several drawings at more-or-less the same time. The earning periods for tickets certainly overlap. Winning “too often” at one casino can have negative consequences for you. (Players who rarely win but see you win all the time will complain. Guaranteed. Never mind that you have 20 times as many entries as they have and should be called more often. Casinos don’t want unhappy players, so they will take actions to eliminate this “problem.” Whatever the casinos decide is the best way to fix this problem, you’re probably not going to like.)
Drawings in Las Vegas are less valuable (for me anyway) than they were a few years ago, but my EV is still more than $20,000 a year from drawings. Percentage-wise, that’s a significant portion of my net win. Of course I’m going to count them.