Today’s story starts off completely true about a recent meeting I had. About half-way through, I’ll veer into fiction because I didn’t think of the right things to ask until after the meeting was over. So, I’m going to list the questions I should have asked. And I won’t presume to give his answers to these questions, although I will forward the article to him and maybe we’ll continue the conversation later.
A valued decades-long friend has a son, John, who just graduated from the University of Nevada Reno. John got a job as a slot analyst at a large Reno casino, and the father asked me if I would speak to John about the gambling world. The father thinks, probably correctly, the son has stopped listening to him. So Bonnie, John, and I had a dinner meeting.
John told me his girlfriend was a senior at UNR, and he hoped to marry her. For the next year, at least, he was planning to stay in Reno, but after that, he could go anywhere.
The first “casino business” thing we spoke about was the recent tax bill, the uncertainty about whether it will be modified, and my plans to give up gambling effective January 1 should it not be modified. (Should this be news to the reader, I discussed it at length in this column about a month ago.)
At this point, John told me that if I wanted to pass along my knowledge before I retire with all my secrets, he’s willing to be my student. And starting with the next question, things get fictionalized.
I asked him, “Is being a professional gambler a lifelong dream of yours? Or maybe you’ve heard that I’ve been successful and you just want to be rich?”
John gave a sheepish grin and said maybe a bit of both.
“How long has being a professional gambler been a dream of yours — and what have you done to prepare yourself for such a career?”
He admitted that it hasn’t been a dream that’s been on the front burner, and he really hasn’t done anything to prepare himself.
“How much bankroll do you have? What I mean is how much money could you lose without it being a major burden on your way of life?”
John said he had essentially no bankroll and he had some student loans that would need to be addressed soon.
“The complete answer is pretty long, but the bottom line is you’re not a very good candidate to be a professional gambler.”
I then spelled out my pretty long answer.
First, you need a bankroll. Just starting a marriage and bringing along student debt for at least one of you is not the best time to be saving 40% of your income for future gambling purposes.
Speaking of marriage, if being a professional gambler hasn’t been discussed with your bride to be, it’s possible that it could be a showstopper with respect to whom she wants to marry. If not specifically for her, maybe her family.
Second, being a professional gambler is a way of thinking. Most of us were playing strategic games for a long time before we gambled at it. Were you good at chess, scrabble, Minecraft, or any other games where strategy is a prerequisite?
Third, I’m leaving gambling because I think I can’t make a living at it under the new tax law. Do you think following my methods can lead you to success when I think those methods won’t work anymore under the new law? I could be wrong, of course, but are you willing to bet you know more than I do about this?
Fourth, succeeding at video poker is a lifelong process. I’ve been playing more than 30 years and am still learning things. This is not a profession where you can read a couple of books and be set for life. Are you a lifelong student sort of guy?
Fifth, the best professional gamblers are much smarter than average. Genius isn’t required, but being smarter than the casino employees who decide which games and which promotions to offer is useful. Does this describe you?
Sixth, successful professional gamblers often change games they play if situations change. Video poker itself is reasonably well understood by most casino slot directors and few casinos offer lucrative opportunities for players. I’ve found some, but who knows how long they will last and who knows how long my welcome will last. It’s very possible that in ten years the successful video poker players of today will be playing gambling games that haven’t even been invented yet.
I’ll leave this fictionalized conversation off for now, although I’ll continue it in next week’s blog, and just surmise that John’s last response was a polite, “Well, Bob, you’ve given me a lot to think about.”
I’ll answer the questions because I wonder if Part 2 answers them, but since I’ve been interested:
0) It’s been something I’ve wanted to do at least most of my adult life, but various things have kept me away from really pursuing it. Now I seriously doubt if I can keep doing my current job and living where I live over the long term… neither are good at all for my mental health.
1) Yes, I have a bankroll; whether it’s enough to get started on full-time professional gambling is another matter 🤷 I have some personal assets (collectibles) of significant value that I’ve been meaning to sell, so that could help give it a boost. As far as any marriage or long-term relationship is concerned, they would have to be good with what I did for it to work. There are probably more/bigger quirks they would have to be at least ok with for such a relationship to work, and I’m honestly not in any rush to get “settled down”; I never really have been.
2) I’ve been relatively good at crossword puzzles, puzzle video games (Tetris, Columns, Bejeweled, etc.), and Scrabble/Words With Friends. If I was more interested, I could probably be much better. I’m much happier studying video poker 🙂
3) The short answer: Yes? One thing is that I would be inclined to either forego a permanent house altogether and just move from casino to casino (my desire to have significant personal belongings is essentially nil at this point) or maybe a very small house/condo, ideally in a place that is close enough to Vegas to be within public transportation reach but far enough away to still get “non-local” offers including hotel stays (Mesquite? Bullhead City AZ?). Maybe being a Vegas local would be doable if the housing market completely craters again, but I’m not playing a bet on that just yet 🧐 Either way, a big element of my plan would be to keep housing costs very minimal or essentially zero
4) I spend a lot of time searching out availability of good video poker, learning about AP slots, learning VP strategy, finding good promotions and information about best places to get good offers, etc. So yes, perpetual learner/student by nature 👍👍
5) Yes. 🙂
6) Sounds good to me; I’m definitely branching out to some AP slot and selective ETG play. Whatever’s a play works for me (except maybe live table games/counting).
Is this a résumé? I guess it’s not *not* a résumé 😂
Excellent advice and food for thought. As a “hobby” level card counter I’ve had a lot of fun, met some very interesting people, even square danced with your club, but I don’t think I could endure the commitment that you describe.
Excellent, well thought out advice.
I consider myself a smart recreational player. I have had situations where I’ve had to play a lot in a short period. Those events come very close to being a professional player. And yes, running $60,000 through a day with a 1% edge sounds like easy money, but it is far from it.
There are a lot of down sides to being a pro. Long hours, lots of travel, irregular schedule, non steady income, etc. I could go on and on.
I think the person who wants to turn pro should look at all the down side as well as the perceived upside.
And maybe the most important thing to do is figure out why you want to be a professional gambler. Is it no other job prospects, being your own boss, the lure of luxury hotel rooms and free meals?
It’s a lot of work. And you have to put up with unpleasant work conditions. It also isn’t a particularly healthy lifestyle and will be a challenge to having a long term relationship, unless your partner also gambles. And having a partner who gambles can bring on a whole new set of issues.
So, although not a professional gambler, I am confident I could be. But I would have to give up a lucrative day job to do so and doubt I could make as much working the same number of hours. So, I remain a smart recreational player.
I have just one addition. I think you must consider that you are likely going to be best at one particular game. If that game becomes unavailable, rather than go down the water slide of “I’m a gambler; I’ll find another game,” the person needs to be able to say “I gamble at this particular game; it’s gone; I will do something other than gamble.”
My point is that the whole Leonardo Da AP thing is for the rare individual able to do multiple, perhaps radically different things, well. For everyone else, there is only what they do best.
When people ask me about “sports gambling,” I make sure to define myself as not really a “sports gambler. I’m a college football gambler.” That’s a completely different way of looking at the world rather than “sports gambler.”