Category: Advantage Play

Posted on by — 27 Comments

What Should We Do with Jerry Ice 33?

Bob Dancer

Author’s note: When I originally wrote this more than a month ago, Jerry Ice could be counted on to post several times a month. Since I wrote this, he has largely disappeared. It’s possible he’s decided that commenting here is not a game he wants to play anymore — which would be a fine result so far as I’m concerned. I’m running this blog anyway in case that was not Jerry’s decision.

I’ve been writing and teaching for more than 30 years. My national “fame” started in the late 1990s when I began writing for the monthly magazines Strictly Slots and Casino Player which were both distributed for free in a number of casino hotel rooms around the country — in addition to people buying regular subscriptions.  I’ve had a weekly blog, for various publications, almost continuously since then. I’ve participated in online video poker blogs periodically for longer than that.

For whatever reason, I have always attracted detractors. In each online forum where I’ve participated, there have usually been one or more people who take regular shots at me. At first, I started to respond to defend myself, but this often led to several people joining in — each one changing the argument slightly — and I learned quickly that I couldn’t win against this type of attack coming from several directions at once. So, I largely ignored it.

Surprisingly, to me at least, when I started the Gambling with an Edge radio show — which morphed into a podcast — people began criticizing me less. Which was fine with me.

I’ve been blogging on the Las Vegas Advisor website for more than a decade — and it provides a forum where readers can respond to my columns. And I have the tool, should I wish to use it, of removing any posts I choose to — for whatever reason.

So far there is only one person who is permanently banned from posting comments to my blogs. It took awhile for this situation to arise — and Anthony Curtis became involved in enforcing the ban — but so far, it’s holding.

Which brings me to the man, I assume, who posts under the name Jerry Ice 33. I’m going to refer to him as Jerry. I don’t know who he is — although it’s possible I know him under a different name.

Jerry regularly comments on my blogs — and a high percentage of his comments are derogatory towards me. He likes to say I’m cheap. He likes to tell us I treat Bonnie poorly. He’s made other negative comments as well. And he posts the same complaints over and over again.

Some of you have responded to Jerry, suggesting he lay off the criticism. While I appreciate the support, this forum is supposed to be about becoming more successful at gambling, and not a discussion of whether or not I’m a flawed human being.  ( I plead guilty to being flawed — although I do think my frugality has been a major factor in my success, and I’m positive Bonnie thinks her life is working well and she is loved by me.)

While I can continue to ignore Jerry, I feel he’s becoming disruptive. My personal belief is that if he isn’t getting value from reading this blog, he should spend his time doing something else. Repeatedly and repetitively suggesting he’s not a Bob Dancer fan doesn’t improve the experience for anybody else who reads the blogs.

So, what shall I do? I’m asking you as a group and hoping many of you respond. Should I let him be or should I start removing negative posts from him? If I start removing negative posts and he continues anyway, I’ll talk to Anthony about permanently barring him from the site.

I’m not sure what kind of majority I’ll need in order to start removing his posts (if, indeed, there’s a majority at all). It’s possible Jerry could apologize and all will be forgiven — but I’m not holding my breath on that one.

So, what do you think?
Second author’s note: I recent came across Dan Ariely’s book, Misbelief: Why do Rational People Believe Irrational Things, which addresses the type of “Internet bullying” I went through — and to a lesser degree than before am still going through with Jerry. The book was eye-opening to me, but more complicated than I wished to summarize in an additional blog.

Posted on by — 5 Comments

Why Would They Do That?

Bob Dancer

I’ve written recently about looking for certain slot machines to be reset — because some of them, not many, reset to conditions favorable to the player. A reader who calls himself jstewa22 wrote a number of posts saying this didn’t make any sense to him. Why would a machine reset in such a way? A very good question, to be sure. Today’s blog attempts to address this question.

First of all, keep in mind that gaming manufacturers (IGT, Aristocrat, Konami, etc.) are not owned or run by casinos. They are separate entities. Manufacturers need to walk a fine line between casinos and players. To be successful, the game must be profitable for the casinos and interesting to the players.

Also keep in mind that game designers aren’t, for the most part, also advantage players. The game designers might pick a reset number out of the blue — resetting to 12 sounds good, perhaps — and go with it. 

The game manufacturers possibly don’t know the return for the machine when reset at 12 (or any other number). They know the overall Return to Player (RTP) (typically between 85% and 95%) over time, but may not have the return broken out at every possible reset number. 

Advantage players, however, make it a point to know when a game is positive. We collect data and analyze what we find. When we do find a game that resets positively, we play until the game is no longer positive.

A famous example of this happened a few years ago when New Jersey allowed online gambling. I wasn’t involved in this bonanza, and might have some details wrong, but it went something like this.

On the game Ocean Magic, the game reset positively FOR EVERY PLAYER FOR EVERY DENOMINATION. So, a player signed up, deposited money, probably collected a signup bonus, and then played off all denominations and number of coins — of which there were lots. When that player had run through all of the possibilities, he was done gambling and ready to cash out — often thousands of dollars ahead.

That player would then do the same thing using the identities of as many people as he could talk into it. How much these people were paid to let the APs use their name and accounts was open to negotiation. But if a player could get dozens (or even dozens of dozens!) of additional names so Ocean Magic would reset for every one of them, think of the windfall!

It didn’t take long for the New Jersey Gaming Commission (or whatever the organization is called) to notice this pattern: players sign up, play all the Ocean Magic combinations, and then cash out. When the NJGC figured it out, they stopped it. They either got the Ocean Magic manufacturer to change the reset numbers or stopped offering the game.

I heard there were lawsuits against the players for “taking advantage” of the situation. As I understand it, players eventually got paid — but many were barred from playing online in New Jersey thereafter at one or more casinos. The players who spotted this did quite well for themselves until it was shut down. Today there are ways to play Ocean Magic with an advantage, but not when the game is originally reset.

How could this happen? I’m not really sure, but I am sure it did happen. Somebody somewhere didn’t dot all the i’s and cross all of the t’s. This was another case of “the early bird gets the worm.” The early discoverers made out like bandits. The rest of us just heard about it after it was no longer profitable.

While I know of four different games that are positive at reset, at least some of the time, you’ll never see me identify which games those are. The reason is simple. I assume some number of my readers are casino employees. If I told them which games are beatable in this way, you can bet that the opportunity would dry up essentially immediately. Casinos would demand that manufacturers fix this problem — or the casino would no longer offer the game. And since a game that casinos won’t buy (or lease) is no good at all to a manufacturer, the manufacturers will comply with the casinos’ wishes.

Even if the knowledgeable player can figure out how to make thousands of dollars when these particular games are reset, resets don’t happen very often, and the games are still wildly profitable to the casinos.

Consider the opposite side of this: One game that definitely is NOT beatable at reset is Buffalo Power Pay. When this game is reset, all of the betting options have the Major at 30 and the Mega at 50. When the numbers are at this level, the game returns 80% or so. It takes a while for the Major and Mega to be built up so it’s profitable for to the players.

But at some major casinos in Las Vegas, these games are reset by the casinos several times a week! This is equivalent to letting the players build up progressives, and then the casino confiscates the money that the players built up. I’ve asked Bob Nersessian about this, and his belief is that it is patently illegal to do this. And casinos are doing it time and time again.

A player who complained about this to the casino would thereby identify himself as a player who paid attention to such numbers — and, for the most part, casinos don’t appreciate such players. The player who complained would be, in effect, outing himself as a player the casino wishes to kick out. Because of this, players do not complain about this to the casinos.

There’s another way for games to reset positively — and that is for the new starting number to be selected at random! Sometimes it’s positive for the player. Usually not. But it does happen from time to time. On these games, just playing regularly, players have noticed the reset number — and sometimes it is positive after the bonus round is played. Sharp players are alert to this!

I’m not sure my explanation will satisfy jstewa22. After all, the explanation is basically “shit happens on occasion, but alert players can take advantage of this.” 

I think jstewa22 was thinking that casinos and/or manufacturers were INTENTIONALLY doing this, and that simply didn’t make sense to him. As well it shouldn’t. These organizations are in the business of making money off of players — not supporting APs. I’m certain casinos and manufacturers are definitely NOT doing this on purpose. But there are a lot of moving parts and a lot of decision makers, and sometimes somebody somehow someway drops the ball.

Posted on by — 13 Comments

How Lucky Was It?

Bob Dancer

Last week I wrote about completing a royal flush cycle (one or more royals in each suit) within one trip. I was very lucky, to be sure, but just how lucky?

I have a hard time calculating how lucky something was after the fact. You can massage the numbers and come up with all sorts of probabilities. There is not one absolutely correct answer that everybody can agree on.

Let’s start with the 11-day trip. I used all of it, hitting the club royal on my last day there. Most players never have an 11-day out-of-town casino trip in their entire career! I’ve had 14-day trips to Cherokee. I would have been just as delighted to complete the cycle on one of those trips. But I never did.

It’s not the length of the trip, of course, that determines your chances, but rather the number of hands played. Near as I can tell, I played about 62,000 video poker hands. I know how many points I earned during the trip, but some of my play was on slots. I record my points earned each day, but not how that number of points is broken down between slots and video poker.

I know I’m going to be using the word “cycle” in a different way now, but a “royal cycle” is the number of hands, on average, to hit a royal flush in a particular game. In Jacks or Better the number is right around 40,000, and that’s the commonly used number for video poker royal cycles. But NSU has a longer cycle, 43,456 hands, because you play hands differently in this game.

Calling 62,000 hands 1.4 royal cycles is as close as I can get. The 43,456 number is fairly precise (I could tell you that number is 43,456.27, which would be more precise, but hardly more useful), while the 62,000 number is an educated guesstimate. Using the Binomial Theorem, connecting on exactly four royals in 1.4 cycles happens about 4% of the time, and connecting on four or more royals in 1.4 cycles happens about 5.6% of the time.

If I connect on exactly four royals, all four suits will be present only about 9% of the time. Were I fortunate enough to have connected on five-or-more royals (I wish!), it would have been easier to have all four suits represented. Not a lock, of course, but easier.

Now what do we do with the club royal being dealt? The “dealt-ness” of that royal was overkill. I would have also completed the cycle even if I had needed to draw one or more cards to get the club royal. 

But the royal being dealt allows me to jack up my numbers when I tell people how rare this was. (It’s not something I normally do, but I’m discussing it here because there are always “How rare was it anyway?” questions.)

The dealt royal arrives approximately every 650,000 hands. But since at the time it hit, I needed the royal in clubs to complete the cycle, those only come around one-quarter as often — or about every 2,600,000 hands. 

All these things had to happen on the same trip — namely playing 62,000 hands, collecting at least four royals, having every suit being accounted for in those four or more royals, and (this one is optional), one of these had to be dealt. To determine how likely all of this is, you need to multiply all of these probabilities together. I’ll let others do it, because I’m not at all convinced that figuring out how likely something was to happen — after you know it did happen — is a meaningful exercise at all.

There’s more on this trip. The deuces cycle in this game is about 5,356 hands. In 62,000 hands you have 11.6 of these cycles. I collected 12 sets of deuces — which is essentially spot on given the imprecision of the 62,000 number. The thing is, one of those sets of deuces was dealt. 

Being dealt a specific quad happens every 54,167 hands, on average — so in 62,000 hands “it figures” I would have collected one or more. Mathematically, even though 62,000 is larger than 54,167, I was still a slight underdog to hit exactly one set of dealt deuces on the trip, although I was a sizeable favorite to collect one or more.

What this has to do with anything is that on the same trip I was dealt a royal and dealt deuces! (I was also dealt four aces with a deuce, which is another rare event that is called a 5-of-a-kind for $400 in $5 NSU Deuces Wild and it’s the kind of hand that makes you wish you were playing a different game!) Being dealt a royal is rare enough. But also being dealt deuces is even more rare!

It was, to be sure, a trip to remember!

Sometimes casinos restrict players who have too much success. I’m hoping that’s not the case here.

Posted on by — 15 Comments

Pedaling Hard for the Cycle

Bob Dancer

In baseball, a player “goes for a cycle” if he hits a single, double, triple, and home run in one game. These don’t happen too often — just twice in the 2025 Major League Baseball season, for example. The more at bats a player has, the more likely he can get these four specific hits in a single game.

There is no direct analog in video poker, but several of us have called hitting royal flushes in each of the four suits in a single “trip,” to be a cycle. The word “trip” is somewhat open to interpretation. I accomplished my first one in a day, playing 10¢ Hundred Play 8-5 Bonus Poker some 25 years ago at the Silverton when they had a promotion where the player could earn a Rolex watch if he played some large number of points in a month. I don’t remember why I felt it necessary to do this in one day, but I played many hours and earned the Rolex and the cycle. I didn’t write about my cycle at the time because I felt doing it on Hundred Play was “unfair.” You do, after all, collect a royal every hour or two in that game, so collecting a lot of royals is not a major accomplishment.

In 2026, I had a chance to do it on a single-line game. Last week I wrote about braving the weather to reach Harrah’s Cherokee for an 11-day trip. Although I played some slots, my video poker game of choice was $5 NSU Deuces Wild. 

On day 2, I connected on a royal flush in diamonds. I usually do not take pictures of my royals, and I didn’t this time either. On day 3, however, I connected on a royal flush in spades — this time memorializing it with my iPhone camera. On day 5, I hit a royal flush in hearts and, for the first time, began thinking of completing the cycle. On my trips of this length, I usually connect on one or two royal flushes, so with six days left, I had a decent shot at collecting at least one additional one. 

Hitting a royal, though, is not the same as hitting a club royal. All royals on this game pay the same $20,000, no matter the suit, but I wouldn’t qualify for the cycle unless it was specifically in clubs. And even if I did, I didn’t have a picture of my diamond royal flush, so I would have no “proof.” I decided this wasn’t a problem. Even if I had a picture of the diamond royal flush, there would be no proof that I was the one who hit it and did so on this particular trip. If someone wanted to doubt what I claimed, there would be plenty of room, with or without a picture.

I thought about how far I would go to hit this royal. On a hand such as K♣ Q♣ A♠ 3♣ 6♠, for example, it’s about a 4¢ mistake for the $5 five-coin player to hold the suited KQ rather than throw everything away. Most NSU players ignore the penalty cards on this type of hand, I believe, and hold the KQ. Making this mistake would give me a 1-in-16,215 chance of getting the club royal and completing the cycle on this particular play. While it would only be a slim chance, it would still be bigger than the zero chance I would have if I tossed all five cards. Plus, if and when I do indeed hit the club royal, nobody is going to ask me what five cards were dealt to me on the hands that ended up being royals. 

I decided I didn’t want to change my strategy. If the royal comes while I’m playing correctly, great. If it doesn’t, so be it. But I wasn’t going to be making intentional misplays (even those worth very little) in order to accomplish this feat. What I would do, I decided, was play longer hours. Instead of my normal $150,000 coin-in per day, I would play $180,000. This wouldn’t be cheating at all, at least not to my mind.

It’s one thing, of course, to claim the high ground with an “I’d never do that” promise when it’s hypothetical. There are a number of different hands similar to the one I listed above — but they don’t happen very often. I did get a couple of these hands after I was down to only needing one more suited royal to complete the cycle, one in hearts and one in spades, but nothing in clubs. I wasn’t really tested as to whether I would fudge correct strategy to complete my goal.

Before a hand arose causing me to think about “being flexible” in my strategy, the machine took the decision out of my hands by dealing me a club royal. A dealt royal is a 1-in-650,000 hand event. A dealt royal in clubs is only ¼ as likely as that. But that’s what happened.

As it turned out, I accidentally left my iPhone in my hotel room that day, so I couldn’t take a picture of the hand. I asked the slot attendant if she could take a picture of it and text it to me. Well, no, personal cell phones weren’t allowed for employees when they were working. They used iPads at this casino to process jackpots, and to be sure the iPads have cameras, but it’s a limited Wi-Fi that they use which only allows internal communication within the company.

However, she could AirDrop the picture. I had heard of AirDrop before, but had never used it and wasn’t sure how it worked. But I was told that if I brought my phone within the five remaining hours of this lady’s shift, I could get the picture via AirDrop. I agreed. It didn’t occur to me at the time to leave the royal on the screen for a half-hour while I walked 15 minutes each way to my hotel room. They probably would have agreed to that, but I don’t know for sure.

But the AirDrop worked so I have the picture which I’m sharing here. The way you know the royal was dealt is that above each card it says “HELD.” If I had to draw one or more cards, there would be fewer than five “HELD” indications.

So, I ended up getting the cycle. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it! Plus I am now tech savvy enough to use AirDrop!

In my career, I’ve had a number of “braggable” jackpots in casinos. Not that I needed another one, but this one was very welcome and very likely the last time I will ever complete a cycle in one trip! This was my first extended trip of 2026, and it starts off my year with a nice plus score.  

Often when someone experiences a rare hand, or combination of hands, the question of “Just how rare was this?” arises. That strikes me as a worthy topic for next week’s blog. After all, if I can’t get at least two blogs out of this, it couldn’t have been all that rare!

Posted on by — 11 Comments

Money in the Bank

Bob Dancer

Not long ago Bonnie and I invited a friend to join us for dinner at a casino restaurant. The friend, a woman in the same improv group in which I participate, was not a gambler. “Sandy” was a senior citizen and was retired. 

At one point, Bonnie and I told Sandy of a time I was playing in downtown Las Vegas and had gone through all of my cash on hand. I was playing a slot machine, in significant positive territory, and I didn’t want to walk away and leave the machine for others to capitalize on. So, I called Bonnie and asked her to get some cash and take Lyft to downtown (Bonnie no longer drives.) She agreed.

Sandy asked how much we were talking about. 

I didn’t remember for sure, but I told her it was probably $10,000. It was very likely more than enough, but if she was going to make the trip, we wanted to make sure we didn’t run out again.

Sandy remarked that this was way too large of an amount not to be earning interest.

I conceded her point — but suggested that it was a different calculation for a professional gambler.

“How come?” she asked. “Interest given up is interest given up, no matter what your profession is.”

I changed the subject, but have been thinking about this. While Sandy wasn’t wrong, here is my thinking on the subject:

  1. Gamblers have bigger cash swings than most people. Sometimes the swings go against you, and you need a “cushion” available for when that happens. If you have lines of credit at every casino you frequent, this can serve as a sort of short-term cushion. While I have lines of credit at a number of casinos, I regularly frequent casinos where this is not the case for me. So, I need a buffer.
  1. Gamblers for “large” stakes need bigger cushions than gamblers for smaller stakes. I’ve had some monthly negative scores in excess of $30,000 over the past few years. I need a way to cope with these swings. Overall, I’m a winning player, but not every week or month (or even, occasionally, year).
  1. Banks do not like large regular cash deposits and withdrawals from gamblers. Numerous gamblers have had banks terminate their accounts for such activity. I’m not sure why banks act this way, but they do. Perhaps they’re nervous about money laundering situations and don’t want to risk it.
  1. Even if banks did allow large cash deposits and withdrawals from gamblers, banks are not always near the casinos and not always open when the money is needed. Casinos are open 24 hours. Banks aren’t. 
  1. Sometimes casinos will lock up a machine for a few hours for a player. Sometimes they won’t. If a player has cash in a safety deposit box at a bank or casino near several other casinos, this can be used to fulfill cash needs for those casinos fairly quickly.
  1. If I did run out of cash, I have gambling friends I can count on to lend me short-term money. I very much try to avoid this because if I borrow, I have to be willing and able to lend money to others. While most gamblers to whom I have lent money have paid me back reasonably promptly, there have been exceptions. I would rather not open this door.
  1. I don’t know Sandy’s exact financial circumstances, but I suspect she is living closer to the edge than I am. She needs to make every penny count, so to speak, and to earn them while she can. So, she has developed rules of thumb that serve her well for this purpose. A good rule for most people is to keep your money working for you and don’t leave money uninvested.

While I don’t consider myself wealthy, I have enough money to comfortably gamble for considerable stakes without threatening my lifestyle or retirement status. So, I can afford to keep more cash around than many other people can. Very little of that is at home (for safety reasons). Most is spread out in safety deposit boxes in casinos I frequent.

Posted on by — 10 Comments

Weather or Not

Bob Dancer

A significant part of the country experienced colder than usual weather starting January 25 and lasting for a while. While Las Vegas escaped most of the cold weather, January 25 was a day I was scheduled to fly from Newark, NJ to Asheville, NC to begin an 11-day Cherokee trip. Both airports were snowed in, and I tried to cope as well as I could.

My flight from Las Vegas into Newark was on January 24, arriving about 6:30 p.m. When I arrived, I learned my flight the next day to Asheville was cancelled. I searched for any flight on January 25 that was still open and was traveling from Newark to either Asheville or Atlanta. I found one into Atlanta on Spirit Airlines, leaving at 5 a.m. I booked it, hoping I could travel before the storm hit. At that time, we didn’t know how big the storm was going to be, or exactly when it would strike, but it was supposed to be bad.

That left me about 10 hours to rent a car, drive two hours to Atlantic City, pick up free play on both Saturday and Sunday, play it off, sleep and eat if I could manage either or both, and then drive two hours back to Newark. When I left Atlantic City at 1 a.m. for the drive back to Newark, the flight status listed online was still “on time.” 

The drive to Newark was dry until I was very close to the airport. I kept driving past signs that told me serious weather conditions were coming, and non-essential driving should be avoided. I kept asking myself what in the hell I was doing.

When I went to check in at Spirit, I discovered my flight had been cancelled — as well as more than 80% of all flights in or out of Newark that day. Spirit had a seat available on a flight to Detroit which was scheduled to fly out soon, and from there, after a six-hour layover, I could fly to Atlanta if that flight didn’t get cancelled. Since some chance of getting to Atlanta on that day was better than no chance, I got on the flight to Detroit.

On the flight from Newark to Detroit, I had a window seat, and there was only snow to see out there. I couldn’t see the ground at all until just before landing. Detroit had snow, but the airport was operational. Some flights were taking off. Others weren’t — but that was a function of the weather at the destination rather than the weather in Detroit. Atlanta was currently allowing flights to land, but that could change at any moment. I got a brief amount of sleep sitting up in the Detroit airport. Not quality sleep by any  means.

While I waited to see if my flight would take off, I called Cherokee and inquired if by any chance they would have a driver in Atlanta near the time I was supposed to arrive? No such luck. It’s a three-hour drive from Cherokee to Atlanta — in dry weather — and their only drivers were booked elsewhere. 

Bonnie was traveling separately from Vegas to Asheville, North Carolina. Originally, I was going to fly from Newark and meet her there. A car from Cherokee would transport us both to the property. But now, I was flying to Atlanta, some 200 miles away from Asheville. I haven’t traveled the road between these two cities before, but I know it’s not all flat driving. The elevation at the high point on that route exceeds 3,400 feet — which is plenty high enough to be snowy and/or icy in the current conditions. Driving from Atlanta to Asheville was going to be out for me — I was too tired for a three-hour road trip in a car I wasn’t used to in bad weather. I’d concentrate on getting to Cherokee and let the casino driver pick her up and bring her to me. Bonnie and I both know the driver, Chris, who was scheduled to pick her up and that wouldn’t be a problem.

Renting a car in Atlanta was going to be an issue. There were cars to be had, but nowhere close to Cherokee to drop them off. Enterprise has a location relatively close to Cherokee, but the Enterprise rental location within the Atlanta airport was closed for the day. The cars I could get would have to be dropped off in Asheville — a full 60 miles away from Cherokee.

The plane did take off from Detroit and land in Atlanta uneventfully — and the passengers on the plane gave out a heartful cheer. I checked my messages and found out that Bonnie’s plane to Asheville had been cancelled. I texted this information to Chris so he wouldn’t drive out there for nought. 

I checked Lyft and found out that I could get to Cherokee for $320 from Atlanta. I decided this was better than driving in icy conditions to Cherokee when I was sleep deprived and in a car I wasn’t used to — and then dealing with getting to and from Asheville to return the car. Before I ordered the Lyft car, I checked Uber and found out the ride cost $260 — and if I was willing to share a ride, $165. Yes, I was willing. I hoped whomever I shared with didn’t mind my snoring. Not for the first time, I was amazed that the rates varied so much between these two companies that offered essentially identical service.

Turned out that I paid the “share” rate, but there were no other passengers. Sometimes you catch a break.

I arrived in Cherokee and checked in. I was more tired than I was hungry, so I immediately went to bed. My plan was to awaken at 2 a.m. and play $50,000 coin-in before the casino day changed at 6 a.m., earning me 5,000 Tier Credits and the maximum daily bonus of 10,000 TCs. I can redeem one Experience Credit (requiring 250,000 TCs) for $450 in free play, so earning some extra TCs would be worth money to me to obtain.  But when my alarm rang, I turned it off, rolled over, and slept longer. I was worn out by both the lack of sleep and the stress of not knowing how I was going to cope with my transportation problems caused by weather conditions that were both serious and uncertain.

I had my toothbrush and toothpaste, but no other toiletries. I’d flown into Newark for a day with just a backpack — and my clothes and things were in a suitcase Bonnie was bringing. With the weather, she ended up getting here Thursday night — four days later than originally planned. I wore the same clothes day after day, washing out my underwear nightly. The handheld hair dryer became a clothes dryer. When Bonnie finally saw me, she laughed at how scruffy I had become. But we were together again, clean clothes were at hand, and everything was okay in our world.

Posted on by — 4 Comments

Atlantic City Adventure

Bob Dancer

I’ve been to Atlantic City on fewer than 10 occasions. I’ve taught classes at three or four different casinos there and have been there for one or two Seven Stars events. As a player, though, I haven’t played there much. I’ve found Las Vegas, where I live, has better games for me. So why travel 2,500 miles to play lesser games?

That changed in November of 2025. Based on our play in Cherokee, I suppose, Bonnie and I received significant play-up mailers from Atlantic City. A play-up promotion is one where if you play a certain number of points, you receive certain benefits. While we received different offers, I think mine was to play 10,000 Tier Credits and receive $1,000 in free play — repeatable up to 10 times in the month. Plus rooms, food, and some extra Reward Credits.

When we first got the mailers, it was hard to judge whether it would be a good deal or not. I didn’t know what machines were currently available. I didn’t know if they had Next Day Bounce Back (NDB), and if so, at what rate. Did they have any NDB multiplier days? I also didn’t know if they were having any Reward Credit or Tier Credit multipliers. The offer was for any time during the month, and so if we could double up on other promotions, so much the better. To max out the promotion, we’d have to play $2 million coin-in. Since we wanted to do it in three or four days, this meant $25 video poker.

Jimmy Jazz wrote about the promotion and figured it out based on 9/6 Jacks or Better (JoB) — a 99.54% game which requires $25 coin-in to earn one Tier Credit. He concluded that it wasn’t a worthwhile play on those machines. A friend did the same promotion at Caesars Atlantic City a few months before Bonnie and I did and it turns out they have $25 9/6 Double Double Bonus (DDB), a 98.98% game that requires only $10 coin-in to earn a Tier Credit. That game allows us to do the promotion in 40% as much time as on 9/6 JoB. Before the play-up money was received, playing $2 million on 9/6 DDB cost considerably less than playing $5 million on 9/6 JoB. The value of the play-up was more than the cost of earning it. DDB does come with bigger W-2Gs, which was not a factor for me, but may well have been one for Jimmy Jazz. He lives in Michigan and they have a very different state income tax situation than I face in Nevada.

So, we signed up for the promo — went there — and lost a considerable amount. We “forgot” to hit four aces (with or without a kicker) and neither did a royal flush appear on the machines we were playing. We had the edge, I believe, but this time we ended up with a very expensive result. That’s pretty much the nature of DDB. If you don’t hit the big hands this time, you won’t like your score. Still, if they offered us the same promotion again, I’d try it again. 

Based on our play in November, we started to receive mailers for January and February. We each receive $1,000 in weekly free play — plus a free hotel room and more food than we could possibly eat — but of course that free play is only available if we go to Atlantic City. Getting $4,000 free play a month apiece might sound like a lot — but it doesn’t come close to what we lost in November. Still, it’s too much to pass up. As is true on the calendar, the free play week begins on Sunday and ends on Saturday — so if we’re there on the weekend, we can pick up two weeks of free play per trip. It’s a five-hour flight from Las Vegas to either Philadelphia or Newark, which for me is not a lot of fun. If you’re driving, Philadelphia is one hour away from Atlantic City, while Newark is two hours away — but flying into Newark is considerably cheaper than flying into Philadelphia.

On my first such trip there in January, we arrived in Newark at about 6 p.m. on a Saturday — and the trip home left Newark at 7:30 p.m. Sunday. After renting a car I arrived at the casino at about 9 p.m. Saturday night, which was plenty early enough to collect the free play before midnight. Future trips, though, will be lengthier. Weather can delay flights at this time of year and conceivably there could be traffic issues. Getting to the casino too late loses $2,000 in free play. That’s too much to risk cutting it close. If I plan to arrive on Friday night or Saturday morning, that mitigates most of the risk.

Plus, I don’t want to “hit and run,” meaning playing just the minimum amount to pick up the free play and then leaving. (Maybe sometimes, but not all the time.) Casinos offer the free play in order to get you to come in and play — and if you don’t play, some casinos cut you off. My mailers in March and thereafter will likely be larger if I play after picking up the free play. Since there are three separate casinos in Atlantic City that are all connected to this program — Caesars, Harrah’s, and Tropicana — it makes sense for me to walk around all three of them and see what I can find to play. 

These three casinos are not next door to each other. I’ll have a car, so traveling among them is not a big issue, and there is also a free shuttle that runs in a continuous loop among the three casinos. For our trip in November, we didn’t have a car, and we learned it can be a fairly lengthy wait before the next shuttle comes.

Since our normal practice is to spend up to two weeks at a time in Cherokee, it makes sense for us to bookend our Cherokee trips with Atlantic City visits. While these two cities are about 650 miles apart from each other, they are both in the Eastern time zone — three hours earlier than Las Vegas. As I write this, I haven’t yet made the 2½-week trip from Las Vegas to Atlantic City to Cherokee to Atlantic City to Las Vegas — but one is scheduled soon. If we’re still getting Atlantic City mailers in March and beyond, we’ll do this trip more than once.

This makes for a long and intense gambling experience — which is definitely not for everybody. I thought such trips would be over for us because of the tax situation, but I’m glad we found a way to continue.

Author’s note: After I wrote this, I scheduled a trip starting on Saturday, January 24, to do the Newark to Atlantic City to Newark to Cherokee to Newark to Atlantic City to Las Vegas trip I mentioned above. Beginning January 25, there was a huge snowstorm affecting many parts of the country. Because flights were cancelled and I still wanted to get to all of those locations, I ended up with a much longer journey than I had planned. I’ll write about it in a few weeks.

Posted on by — 10 Comments

I Thought About It

Bob Dancer

When you list the financial reasons to intelligently gamble at video poker, it starts with the return on the game itself and the slot club. Promotions get added in, and it’s not too long before you consider mailers.

Mailers aren’t guaranteed, and if a casino decides to reduce or eliminate your mailers, you have no recourse. From the casinos point of view, mailers are a way to encourage you to come and play again — and hopefully lose. From the player’s point of view, mailers are a reward for past play.

If you quit playing, the mailers will stop. If you stiff the casino, meaning you go and pick up goodies but don’t play, the mailers will stop. 

In my case, as regular readers know, I was planning on giving up gambling forever because of the new tax bill. It was only a matter of time before all my mailers disappeared. Still, collecting a few of them before they were cut off seemed to be a potentially lucrative approach. So how would I go about it?

My biggest mailers come from Harrah’s Cherokee, where Bonnie and I make 4-or-5-times-a-year visits. Typically, we stay 10 or 12 days and play considerably more than $1 million in coin-in split between video poker and slots. We get sizeable mailers for doing this — which figures.

Picking up the mailers isn’t easy. It’s a four-hour flight to either Atlanta (three driving hours away from Cherokee) or Ashville (one driving hour away but far fewer flights). Would I be better off coming in and staying a few days without playing, or do a quick hit-and-run and not stay there? Renting a car and a hotel room elsewhere are relatively small costs compared to the size of the mailers.

While the casino offers free rooms, it does so with the expectation that you’ll play. If I don’t play, possibly they’ll charge me for the room — at not-so-friendly prices. To get around that, perhaps it makes sense to book a room somewhere else.

I considered flying in on the last day of a mailer time period, arriving at the casino at 10 p.m. and picking up the expiring mailer money and sticking around for the new mailer time period that begins at midnight. And then leaving.

I could do that, I suppose, but the mailers will be coming in wintertime, and Cherokee is in the foothills of the Smoky Mountains. Weather can play havoc with airline schedules. A plane delay could remove my chance of getting there before the free play period ends.

I usually get free food “on my card.” Probably I could redeem that while I’m there, but I’m not sure. While I possibly wouldn’t check into the hotel and leave a credit card, I’ve been there enough that there’s one of my credit card numbers “on file.” How much they would charge me, if at all, for eating on the comp without playing is an unknown,

I have a line of credit at that casino. At no time did I consider taking out a marker for, say, $50,000 and then not repaying it. Markers are negotiable instruments. Not only would the casino collect, but my credit score would take a significant hit. No thanks.

Plus (in the hypothetical world where I would be quitting gambling), there’s always a chance that the law would be changed, and I’d want to go back there in the future. They would remember if I had significantly stiffed them before.  

I didn’t reach any conclusions as to what I would do. I have thought about it, but am still not sure what I would do.

I suspect I would do nothing of the kind of things I’ve been discussing here. At the end of the day, my integrity is important to me. Hustling an extra few thousand dollars out of a casino on my way out the door doesn’t feel right to me. I might get away with it, but if I felt bad about doing it, what’s the point?

I understand that not everybody would reach this same conclusion. What would you do?

Posted on by — 3 Comments

If I’m Already There …

Bob Dancer

As regular readers of mine know, I play somewhat regularly at Harrah’s Cherokee even though it is more than 2,000 miles away from where I live. The primary reasons are: $5 NSU, daily Next Day Bounce Back (NDB), and significant monthly mailers if you play there enough. The mailers usually include monthly cash, weekly cash, a $200 spa credit, and some food credit.

Other sizeable promotions they periodically have are: NDB multiplier days, Tier Credit multipliers, and Reward Credit multipliers. Bonnie’s and my trips usually last 10 – 14 days or so and we typically get one or two of these periodic promotions during our trip. 

Our trips are usually scheduled so we cross weekly or monthly time periods. On one Sunday each month, you will receive free Reward Credits for swiping at a kiosk. The beginning of the weekly benefits sometimes begins on Mondays, so we might begin our trip on the last Sunday of one month, and stay long enough to still be there for at least the first Sunday of the next month. That gives us two monthly rewards and a few weekly ones as well. It also gives Bonnie two separate $400 spa days during the trip, and food for several days each month.

During each week, the casino usually has two or three “piddly” promotions — such as play 250 points between noon and six p.m., swipe your card at the kiosk, and collect $25 in free play — or spin a wheel at the kiosk — or collect a gift card — or $20 food credit, or something else relatively small.

There is no way that I would make an extra trip to collect one of these small rewards, or even come one day early or stay one day later for a gift that small. But if I’m already there, I make sure I pick them up.

Playing at the Caesars Sports Book while I’m there is also a “If I’m already there . . .” situation. I’m not a sports bettor per se, but betting there is a fairly efficient way to convert Reward Credits to cash. I could convert those RCs to free play in the casino at a 50% rate, but doing so by betting sports does it at a 95% or so rate. And Bonnie and I each receive a free monthly $150 bonus bet in North Carolina in addition to collecting one each month in Nevada. 

As I write this, next Saturday is a “Hot Seat” promotion where every 15 minutes between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. two players are rewarded with free play. The amount of free play ranges from $250 if you are a Gold member to $1,000 if you’re a Seven Stars member. 

While rewards like this would be nice if they’re collected, there will probably be between 500 and 1,000 players playing during the promotion, so the chances of an individual player being called are pretty small. I suspect that if you multiply the size of the prize by the probability of collecting it, this promotion isn’t much different EV-wise than one of the piddly promotions discussed above.

But since I’m already going to be there and I play more than three hours daily, I’ll plan to be playing at a machine during that promotion. I don’t expect to be called this time, but over an entire career, I’ve put myself in these positions hundreds of times and sometimes have collected.

Our “normal” dinnertime when we’re in Cherokee is 6:30 p.m. But that Saturday we’ll eat before or after the Hot Seat promotion times. Bonnie and I are flexible enough in our schedule that eating at different times on different days is no big deal.

The following Saturday is some kind of Christmas show for which we have tickets. There will also probably be a drawing in the casino where they call names every 15-30 minutes between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. and Bonnie and I will both have more than an average number of tickets in the drum because we’ve played a lot for several days before the event. We might be in the casino playing (and listening for our names) until 6:30 p.m. or so and then go to the show. Even when they’re giving away $10,000 or bigger prizes, multiplying that times the probability of being called gives us a small EV. Not negligible, and actually higher than most of the other players there, but still small. 

Taking Bonnie to the show provides me with more value than sticking around for each drawing. She’s a really good sport for accompanying me while I’m “living my dream life” and when there’s something to do that is enjoyable to her, I try to find a way to do it.

I don’t know if they still have it, but on Friday afternoons between something like 3 p.m. and 4:30 p.m. they used to have a Seven Stars “meet the hosts” mixers with decent enough food and free drinks. This is similar to an “If I’m already there . . .” moment, but the inclusion of alcohol makes it slightly different. 

If I’m done with my play for the day, I might well enjoy the food and have a glass of wine or two. Or if I’m not done for the day, I might have a glass of wine, watch a movie in the room, and go to bed early — and then get up at 3 a.m. to finish my play before the casino day ends at 6 a.m. For me, this is a perfectly acceptable plan. But playing $5 NSU immediately after having a drink or two is not an option for me. 

Most of my readers are not $5 NSU players at Harrah’s Cherokee, but other casinos have their own “If I’m already there . . .” promotions periodically. Having a plan on what to do with them is part of a successful gambling career.

Posted on by — 26 Comments

A Change in Plans — Maybe

Bob Dancer

Ever since the “Big Beautiful Bill” was signed into law in July, and Russel Fox appeared on Gambling with an Edge explaining that I’d have to pay income tax on 10% of my W-2Gs whether I won or lost during the year, I knew I’d have to quit gambling come January 1, 2026. 

I received more than $6 million in W-2Gs both this year and last. In 2025, I made money but would be minus after this extra tax. In 2024, I lost quite a bit of money gambling and would still have this big tax bite under the new law. No thanks. 

Since July, I’ve at least mentioned this in numerous blogs, so this decision is no surprise to any of my regular readers.

While I was in Cherokee in early December this year, my gambling partner was a fly-on-the-wall during a Zoom call with Gary Kondler, who works for the Kondler and Associates CPA firm, which specializes in taxes for gamblers. It is Kondler’s belief that if gamblers use the session method of itemizing their wins and losses, mentioned in Shollenberger vs Commissioner, the BBB tax bill isn’t such a big deal. Yes, the tax bite will increase — but not outrageously so. Your W-2Gs, whose total must still be listed on your tax form, are not relevant in how much you have to pay.

Tell me more!

This is something I want very much to be true — and there are a variety of proverbs that warn you to be very careful if something seems too good to be true. I tried to do as much “due diligence” as I could.

It turns out that Gary’s father, Ray Kondler, was a guest on Gambling with an Edge in 2013. This was when GWAE was an hour-long radio show on Thursday nights rather than a podcast, but you can still listen to this show on YouTube by searching for “Ray Kondler.” While this show ran twelve years before the BBB tax bill, when I listened to it recently, Kondler impressed me and I came to the conclusion that I would like his firm to represent me.

Also on YouTube, when I searched for “Gary Kondler,” I found that he has appeared on several gambling related podcasts since the BBB came out, and I’m still convinced I want these guys representing me.  You can listen to these podcasts as well if you like. My financial advisor has contacts with the Nevada Board of Accountancy and found out that the Kondler and Associates firm has a solid reputation. Richard Munchkin and I are interviewing him on GWAE the day this article is posted, and the podcast will probably be posted Wednesday December 24.

I’m convinced enough that I plan to hire the firm and continue my gambling career. I am not an expert in this field, and everybody’s tax situation is different. Keep in mind that I am making no recommendation for you or anybody else. 

If I’m wrong on trusting Kondler’s methodology, continuing gambling could be a very expensive decision for me. It will be a few years before anybody knows for sure, because we’re taking about the 2026-and-beyond tax years and it takes a while after returns are filed to go through the system. And while the BBB is still the law today, who knows if it will be changed along the way?

I am willing to take that risk — for myself. Whether it’s correct for you to do similarly is something you’ll have to decide for yourself.

If you write emails to me, or post responses to this column, or ask me tax questions, my response will always be “I’m not a tax expert and I’m not qualified to answer your questions.”