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Peace in Atlantic City; Storm over Vegas

Along with Resorts Atlantic City, the Golden Nugget (seen above in its Trump Marina days) has inked a new labor pact with Unite-Here, bringing to an end any uncertainty about a strike on the Boardwalk. Workers get substantial pay increases, as they desired, and casino bosses get four years of peace. Union local prexy Robert McDevitt called the negotiations “long and difficult” but everyone is making nice in the wake of the deal. “We were one of the final casinos that was approached for negotiations and we are proud it was a swift and amicable agreement,” remarked Nugget General Manager Tom Pohlman. Resorts’ durable President Mark Giannantonio echoed Pohlman: “We’re really thrilled for the employees. They’ve been working really hard for us, and now we’re happy we can put this behind us and move forward with our business.” Only that remains is formal ratification of the contract, which should be a slam dunk.

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Strip sizzles, locals chillier; The Macao trap

Gambling revenues on the Las Vegas Strip last month heated up dramatically, $735 million or +23% from the year previous. Unfortunately for Nevada, the good news pretty much ends there. Locals play continues to decline, with Downtown off 11.5% to $70 million, North Las Vegas cooling 8% to $22.5 million and the Boulder Strip slipping 12% to $86 million. Laughlin wilted 14.5% to $36.5 million and miscellaneous Clark County dipped 1% to $146 million. Mesquite held its own, flat at $13.5 million and Wendover was up in June, gaining 5.5% to $20 million. Lake Tahoe, however, suffered a blowout, minus 29% to $22 million (yes, worse than North Las Vegas). Reno booked $61.5 million but stumbled 5%.

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Boyd outperforms; Vegas airport sets record, joblessness drops

“No gaming consumer slowdown, at least not yet.” That was the headline of JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff‘s appraisal of Boyd Gaming‘s 2Q22 earnings call. Loyalty players and core customers remain steadfast, as Boyd grew revenues 4% “despite a tough year-over-year comparison.” Unrated players are the Achilles heel, although Greff (rightly) theorizes that their 2Q21 gambling spree “was likely goosed up from stimulus checks.” While unrated play is as much as 40% of overall win, it’s not very profitable in the final analysis. Greff ratcheted his price target on BYD from $83/share down to $71 “despite limited evidence that the U.S. regional gaming consumer is slowing in any meaningful way.” Why? He predicts a 10% revenue decline next year, with serious consequences for the bottom line.

Even so, Greff likes Boyd’s regional diversity “which generates attractive free cash flow.” He’s (not unreasonably) factoring in a “mild” recession, which may be already here, and which he freely admits could be worse than modeled. Fortunately for Boyd, it is not in a position where debt reduction is necessary. Or as CEO Keith Smith put it, “We’re dealing in an uncertain environment and economy, but everything we see says the business is pretty stable. If something were to happen, given our current financial strength, we’re not losing sleep.”

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Jottings for a Tuesday

You know it’s a slow news week when today’s front-and-center lead story in the Las Vegas Review-Journal is that a Lotus of Siam will open in a refreshed Red Rock Resort. With nothing of pressing urgency in the press these last few days, we’ll update you with various odds and ends, such as … Cirque du Soleil‘s Love has received a one-year stay of execution at The Mirage, extended into and perhaps through 2023. All bets are off once Hard Rock International consummates the purchase. Only CEO Jim Allen knows for sure and he ain’t talking, including addressing the bigger question of whether The Mirage proper will remain open during the massive rebranding of the resort. Love‘s marquee is conspicuously missing from the Hard Rock rendering above …

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“Standout” at Sands; Station challenges South Point

Despite attenuated revenues of $1.2 billion in the second quarter, Las Vegas Sands was the beneficiary of what one analyst termed “creeping expectations” on Wall Street. Or, as Deutsche Bank‘s Carlo Santarelli put, “we continue to believe LVS represents one of the more compelling medium- to longer-term risk-reward stories in our coverage universe.” How come? Managed expectations, in large part. Losses in Macao were not as bad as feared and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore (55% of the company’s equity now) is prompting higher forecasts, as the city-state loosens its Covid-19 restrictions. Regarding Macao, “management had little to say” but numbers were “soft” and the company expects to lose $110 million a month in cash flow and rents as long as the current shutdown persists.

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Two Atlantic City casinos to be struck; Pennsylvania’s fuzzy math

Unite-Here quickly ran out of patience with the Golden Nugget and Resorts Atlantic City. 97% of affected membership voted to authorize strikes at both the bottom-feeding casinos if a labor deal can’t be reached before August 1. That still gives both Nugget and Resorts management some wiggle room but it also indicates that talks are not going well. Although the exact nature of the grievance wasn’t specified, we’ll hazard a well-educated guess. The casinos are probably taking a page from the Carl Icahn playbook and demanding a preferential, lower, wage scale. That negotiating tactic bombed at Trump Taj Mahal and probably won’t play much better at the two holdouts, if they go to the wall. The union has made it crystal-clear that it won’t accept second-tier status for any of its employees at any casino in town.

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Atlantic City strong; Station’s demolition derby; De$anti$ hits jackpot; Mega-Jottings

There’s so much news today we almost don’t know where to begin. But we’ll start with Atlantic City, which reported a 2% increase in casino revenue, to $229 million. Internet gambling and sports betting chipped in another $169 million. One of the biggest beneficiaries was Bally’s Atlantic City (above), which leapt 20% to $13.5 million. Other coffee achievers were Ocean Casino Resort, which catapulted 29.5% to $30 million, and Hard Rock Atlantic City, scarcely to be outdone with a 26.5% increase to $44.5 million. Borgata actually lost market share (or was unlucky at the tables), down 4% to $54 million. Of the Caesars Entertainment threesome, only Tropicana Atlantic City was revenue-positive, up 1.5% to $21.5 million. Harrah’s Resort was 5.5% down to $20 million and Caesars Atlantic City, formerly the most volatile house in town, ceded just 4% to $19 million. Resorts Atlantic City was flat at $14 million and Golden Nugget nudged up 3.5% to a last-place $12.5 million. Overall, slot revenue climbed 11% to $171 million on 12% more coin-in, while tables saw 4% less win but on 7% less wagering.

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Atlantic City notes; MGM Singapore?; Mega-Jottings

Ocean Casino Resort has unveiled its pricey new sports book and our Atlantic City correspondent deems it nothing short of “spectacular! In the center is a circular bar, surrounded by TV screens. There is a set of steps (and elevator) to the Balcony Bar overlooking the main area. Borgata‘s sports book used to be number-one in being attractive. Not any longer.” Our man on the town stayed at Hard Rock Atlantic City and reports “it’s much nicer here at Hard Rock than Bally’s; here you can choose from four or five breakfast places that are open.” Meanwhile, all bets are off for the Golden Nugget and Resorts Atlantic City. They have until Tuesday to reach terms with Unite-Here and if they poor-mouth the union then pickets are a certainty.

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Insolvency in Macao; Sports betting everywhere

Prior to the current Covid-19 lockdown, casinos in Macao were already engaged in a $600 million/month cash burn, thanks to the China‘s zero-tolerance policy on the disease. That will only get worse now that access to customers has been shut off entirely, needless to say. Given the former and potential money-making puissance of Macao, the six operators have no chance but to hunker down and absorb the punishment, especially as they wait the six months before their licenses are renewed, as appears inevitable. (And why not?) “The sad part is that it’s going to be years until business comes back to where it used to be,” observed gaming pundit Alidad Tash. How many years remains to be seen but the smart money is on later rather than sooner.

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Bally’s Chicago stirs skepticism; Vegas locals cooling

It’s not just us who are leery of Bally’s Corp. and its ability to do something unprecedented in its history—swing a $1.7 billion casino in Chicago. The company’s corner-cutting “improvement” of Bally’s Atlantic City does not inspire confidence. Nor does a “negative” rating placed on Bally’s debt by both Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s. As Crain’s Chicago Business explains, “That means that while no immediate credit downgrade has occurred, concern about the company’s finances is rising and a downgrade is a distinct possibility in the near future.” S&P cited potential difficulty in obtaining building permits, as well as inflationary pressures on the project cost: “In addition, the risks related to successfully ramping up the operations and cash flow generation of a greenfield project are high.”

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