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Chicago reveals all; Rumblings from Macao; Riot in Vegas

Rivers Chicago at McCormick

The City of Chicago unveiled the applications for its casino license late Friday, effectively burying it at the end of a news cycle, in another triumph for Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) and her administration. The five submissions “are in line with our vision to develop a world-class experience in Chicago that will drive significant economic growth and employment opportunities for our communities,” said Lightfoot. The pitches break down alphabetically as follows:

Bally’s Corp. #1: To be sited at the Chicago Tribune Publishing Center, “an economic sleeping giant,” this $1.8 billion, two-phase project would include 100 hotel suites, 20,000 square feet of expo space, three restaurants—curated by Paul Kahan and Erick Williams—and rooftop “green space.” The casino would feature 95 table games and 2,700 slots. A “Best of Chicago” theme is planned. In a dig at its rivals, Bally’s wrote, “As our flagship property, Bally’s Chicago has no conflicting interest in the Chicago market. We don’t operate, own or partially own casino properties located elsewhere within the Chicagoland market. Simply put, Bally’s is conflict-free.” Even so, the company noted that it is already licensed in the Prairie State. Bally’s predicts a 20% ROI on the project (and if it doesn’t reach it, won’t build Phase II), which will have 25% Black and Latino ownership. This plan really needs to pencil out economically, as most of the amenities are in the second stage.

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Big month for MGM in Michigan; Las Vegas, city of stiffs

Cumulative Internet gambling and sports betting revenues racked up $134 million last month, the vast majority going to i-gaming, some $110 million. Sports books essentially gave away the store, with 81% of revenues going right back out the door in promotions (and this was a decrease from September). BetMGM dominated i-gaming with $41.5 million, followed by DraftKings ($20 million), FanDuel ($17.5 million), BetRivers ($7 million), Golden Nugget Online ($5 million) and Barstool Sports ($4.5 million). There are quite a few other operators in the Wolverine State but their grosses rarely add up to beans. As for sports betting, handle was an impressive $463 million but erstwhile favorite son BetMGM was only third with 22% market share, lagging FanDuel (27%) and DraftKings (26%). Fighting for scraps were Barstool (9%) and Caesars Sportsbook (8%), leaving precious little for anybody else.

When the bets were paid off, it was a decisive win for FanDuel, which netted $10 million to BetMGM’s $7.5 million and DraftKings’ $3 million. Caesars was the only other operator to break the $1 million threshold. Among those making little or nothing (and perhaps overdue to reconsider their Michigan presence) were Golden Nugget, BetRivers, Parx, Four Winds and WynnBet.

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Atlantic City still booming; Churchill Downs wins in Terre Haute

It was another bonanza month for the Boardwalk, as casinos grossed $237.5 million in October, 17% above 2019. Slot win was up 22% on 19% more coin-in and tables won 6% on 9% higher wagering and despite lower hold. Borgata wasn’t so lucky at the tables, being down 9% yet 32% greater slot win propelled the megaresort to a 20% higher tally of $62 million, by far the highest in Atlantic City. A distant second was Hard Rock Atlantic City‘s $37.5 million, despite a 53% gain. Ocean Casino Resort accelerated 63.5% to firmly grasp third place with $30 million. The Cerberus that is Caesars Entertainment dipped 2% overall, as table win slipped 6% and slots edged 1% lower. Harrah’s Resort was 1% up, leading the CZR pack with $24 million, followed by $24.5 million, followed by Tropicana Atlantic City (-3.5%) and Caesars Atlantic City (-2.5%) with $21 million each. Resorts Atlantic City made an impressive, 20.5% gain to $14.5 million, while Bally’s Atlantic City grossed $12.5 million but slid 4.5%. That left Golden Nugget, down 3.5% to $14 million.

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Atlantic City: Does it pay to improve?; Bicycle Casino’s flat tire

New Jersey giveth, New Jersey taketh away. The priority of the Lege’s lame-duck session will not be ending smoking in Atlantic City casinos but something much nearer and dearer to casino executives’ hearts: Revising the PILOT (Payment In Lieu of Taxes) program. This is the brainchild of outgoing state Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D), prompting one wag to comment, “Perhaps he hopes to get a job at a casino so he can have a third pension.” The big, juicy incentive to get Big Gaming to go along is the exemption of sports betting and i-gaming from PILOT revenue calculations, a big gimme.

The casinos’ compliance will be needed in some cases because their PILOT fees will be going way up, usually if they have been engaged in capex reinvestment. We frown upon this because it creates a fiscal disincentive to improve one’s property (slumlords like Donald Trump, in his Boardwalk days, would have loved it). For instance, Borgata would slide down from $29 million due this year to $23 million in 2025. By contrast, Hard Rock Atlantic City would be walloped with a 100% increase from $8 million to $16 million.

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Encore owns Massachusetts; Online slot players hosed

Massachusetts gaming revenue accelerated to $96 million last month, 23% higher than 2019. Encore Boston Harbor vaulted 37% to $63 million—yes, two-thirds of the statewide gross and well above Deutsche Bank‘s forecast of $55 million. Despite Wynn Resorts‘ dominance, Plainridge Park managed to add 4.5% to its 2019 numbers, grossing $12 million (Deutsche Bank was right on the money with that one). MGM Springfield didn’t exactly struggle but it was only 1% up, winning $21.5 million. Back when the Bay State was initially in play, Wynn sussed out Boston as a real gold mine and has been triumphantly ratified.

American Gaming Systems has been all over the news lately and not in a good way. 15 players are lodging complaints against the online-slot maker. What did they do wrong? Basically, they made the mistake of beating the AGS house. The latter isn’t paying, chalking up player victories to ‘a bug’ in the system, that old saw. This is the kind of thing that gives Internet gambling a black eye and AGS should definitely be investigated further than it has. In one case, player Lisa Piluso won $100,000, was offered $280 and later had that upped to $1,000, presumably AGS’ idea of being george. To us, it doesn’t matter a fig whether the AGS software was corrupted (how very confidence-inspiring) or not. Players expect a game to be on the square and should get one that is.

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Wynn spits out SPAC; Penn slammed; Indiana impresses

Headlines are still being made by Wynn Resorts this week. Shockwaves continue to reverberate from CEO Matt Maddox‘s surprise retirement, nearly one year ahead of schedule. His departure comes at a delicate point in negotiations with Macao (or should we say ‘dictations’?), where Maddox has been a key player. Also, it has been revealed that he was thoroughly investigated in 2020 by the board over an anonymously filed allegation of misconduct, phoned in over an employee hotline. Had Maddox failed to divorce himself from the boys-will-be-boys culture of Steve Wynn? We’ll never know and he seems to have been cleared of the charge. But still “It’s all very curious,” as Jefferies analyst David Katz said.

In other news, Wynn Resorts’ retrenchment on the i-gaming and online sports betting front began taking concrete shape. In a curt SEC filing, Wynn let it be known that a merger of Wynn Interactive with special acquisition company Austerlitz I is kaput. “While somewhat surprising, the tea leaves were present in the days leading up to the announcement … and WYNN announced that it was pivoting its strategy in sports betting and iCasino, given the irrational customer acquisition behavior they see taking place in the market,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli. “WYNN noted that it expected 4Q21 losses from the iGaming segment to be considerable ($103 mm 3Q21 loss), and we imagine, 4Q21 losses will exceed those experienced in the 3Q21, given programming of marketing and the busier NFL season.” Santarelli concluded that termination of the JV “could be construed favorably.” Especially for Craig Billings, CEO of Wynn Interactive, who wouldn’t have much to do were he not moving up to the top job at Wynn.

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Wynn drops bombshells; Portnoy’s complaint

Wynn Resorts CEO Matt Maddox is leaving the building, effective Jan. 31. This shockeroo, which inspired a banner headline in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, was trundled out just minutes before the 3Q21 earnings call. Maddox will be succeeded by veteran CFO Craig Billings, who will have the experience and more than enough time for an orderly changeover. Given that former Encore Boston Harbor President Brian Gullbrants is now at the helm of Wynncore, one need not fear that the company will miss a step.

Maddox conceded that he got off to a “rough start” with some, inheriting his job under the cloud of the Steve Wynn sex scandal, “one of the messiest transitions in corporate history.” He didn’t impress us in the early going but proved a steady and proactive leader during the Covid-19 pandemic. Gaming analysts gave rave reviews to both Maddox and Billings, predicting a bright future for Wynn Resorts. As one penned, “barring conspiracy theories around the departure of Mr. Maddox, most notably the implications for the Macau process, of which we think there are virtually none, we expect a smooth transition.”

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New York picks winners, losers; Ohio, even Illinois flex muscles

In hopes of having online sports betting operational in time for the Super Bowl, Empire State gaming regulators announced their picks for the state’s nine OSB license applications late yesterday. Winners were BetMGM (just as Bill Hornbuckle predicted), DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, Bally’s, Resorts World, PointsBet, WynnBet and Rush Street Interactive. Each will have to partner with a brick-and-mortar casino and pay 51% of gross gaming revenue in taxes, plus $25 million upfront, making the real winner New York State. Forbes calculates it will see a $493 million windfall by 2025. Losers were led by Barstool Sports, which missed the brass ring, a bitter pill for Penn National Gaming to swallow. Could Barstool’s brash image have been a problem? Others out in the cold are bet365 (which rashly tweeted “I will own New York”), theScore, Fanatics and FoxBet.

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DraftKings talks big, persuades few; Rancor in Richmond

DraftKings divided analysts with its 3Q21 earnings report. Credit Suisse pundit Ben Chaiken said the company was “moving the ball down the field.” That’s despite revenues of $212 million that well undershot Wall Street‘s expected $238 million, rather like a downfield pass that was picked off for an interception. Chaiken blamed the shortfall on low hold on NFL games and an upswing in marketing costs. DraftKings predicts it will bring in $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion next year, not including money from states that have yet to add sports betting. The Street’s consensus is it will be $1.8 billion inclusive of new markets. Chaiken thinks that DKNG will next try to buy or build a media component, as “the next major theme in sports betting will be the emphasis on sports media, which can be used to more efficiently acquire and retain customers.” If a deal can’t be struck with ESPN, look for a purchase of The Athletic.

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MGM to sell Mirage; Caesars disappoints Wall Street

At a time when the north Las Vegas Strip is finally heating up, MGM Resorts International has chosen this moment to put The Mirage on the market. Although it’s 32 years old (224 in dog years), The Mirage should fetch an attractive price—albeit short of the 14X cash flow that Jim Murren used to shop it around at, back in the Great Recession. Best case scenario, MGM disposes of a geographically isolated asset at a handsome markup (look what happened with The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas). It’s a seller’s market and MGM chose its moment wisely. The only drawback for a potential buyer is that only the operational half of The Mirage is for sale, not the underlying real estate. You’d have to settle for being a Vici Properties tenant.

On the upside, you get a lot of real estate to play with: 77 acres, much of it underdeveloped, according to CEO Bill Hornbuckle. He was in altruistic mood, saying “I’m excited for somebody to come in and make it their marquee property.” As for his own company, “we have enough of Las Vegas … We think there is an opportune time, and we think this might be it to sell an asset in Las Vegas. So it, for us, became the obvious one.” No potential buyer or buyers were tipped, although Hornbuckle’s remarks implied he’s looking for someone without a Strip presence. We’re loath to prognosticate. It would be sentimentally pleasing to see Boyd Gaming back on the Strip but …

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