Maybe the ‘skinny stimulus’ helped Ohio. Gross gaming revenues of $153.5 million were only 8.5% off last year’s pace. The gambling houses are still operating at 50% capacity and under a curfew but the number remains impressive. Hollywood Toledo continues to benefit from the closures in Detroit (recently lifted), up 14.5% to $18 million. Hollywood Columbus declined 12%, also to $18 million. As for Penn National Gaming‘s two racinos, Hollywood Mahoning Valley grossed $12 million, minus 3% and Hollywood Dayton, up 6.5%, also pocketed $11 million. Belterra Park showed signs of stabilization, down 9% to $6.5 million. Scioto Downs had a good month, down only 1% for $15.5 million. MGM Northfield Park was in a three-way tie for first place, grossing $18 million (a 21.5% tumble). Jack Cleveland, now with 100% less Dan Gilbert, was down 10% to $16.5 million whilst Jack Thistledown gained 13% to $13 million. Hard Rock Cincinnati continues to struggle, plunging 34% to $12.5 million. That only leaves Miami Valley Gaming, down 12% to $14 million.
An extra weekend day may have helped Ohio but it didn’t do squat for Illinois, where gambling revenues fell a catastrophic 74%. How come? Casinos were closed half the month, had to shut down nightly at 11 p.m. and were restricted to 25% of capacity. Whatever pent-up demand existed wasn’t sufficient to even partly compensate. Gross gaming revenues were a pitiful $26 million. Heck, Rivers Casino Des Plaines does that and more in a good month. In this case, Rivers towered over the market with $9 million (-77%) with nobody else coming close. In terms of retaining pre-Covid market share, Boyd Gaming‘s Par-A-Dice did best, off 46% to $2.5 million. Jumer’s Casino Rock Island continues to look like a terrible investment for Bally Corp., eking out $1 million (-72%). It did incrementally worse than DraftKings at Casino Queen, just over $1 million and -82%.
Continue reading Normality in Ohio, disaster in Illinois; Planet Ho sale mooted
Penn National Gaming reported 4Q20 earnings today and they were down 23% from last year. Many reasons were cited, including lower consumer spending, casino closures in Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and new restrictions in Ohio and Maine. Oh yes, and Covid-19. Fortunately for Penn, it had done a sufficiently good job of lowering expectations that Wall Street wasn’t fazed by the numbers. After the New Year ‘skinny stimulus,’ Penn is describing January business as “thus far encouraging,” with more foot traffic and longer stays. Sports betting is also providing a critical boost. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff wrote that Penn “is continuing to see encouraging growth in the younger demographic tiers of its database, and expects the roll-out of vaccinations will encourage more guests in all age segments of its database to return to land-based facilities soon.”
More than 23 million Americans are expected to bet legally or otherwise on the Super Bowl, according to the American Gaming Association, which predicts $4.3 billion in handle. 7.5 million punters will be doing their wagering online, 63% more than last year. The action leans heavily (56%) toward the Kansas City Chiefs—sorry, GOAT—with 12 million citizens betting against friends, as opposed to 1.5 million using retail sports bookies, down 61% from last year, before Covid-19 struck. Action with Lefty in the back alley will be patronized by nearly two million Americans, down 21%, a sign of progress. Speaking of progress, the AGA says, “34 percent of Americans remember seeing responsible gaming messaging in the past year, up five points from 2020. Super Bowl bettors were even more likely to see responsibility content, with 53 percent seeing responsible gaming messaging in the past year.” As AGA prexy Bill Miller puts it, “Responsible gaming is core to legal sports betting’s long-term success, and this is borne out by continued demand for consumer protections only available in the legal market.”
Greff elaborated that “vaccination hopes (which we share theoretically) allow for a more pronounced and sustainable consumer spend recovery starting in the 3Q21; we also know what marketing and staffing changes have been made—some of which are permanent—and have conviction that forward-year margins should be decently higher than pre-COVID-19 levels.” He added that gaming had been bolstered through a soft brick-and-mortar period by gains in sports betting and Internet play. He stuck with his price target for Station ($31/share) and added two bucks to his Boyd goal (to $54). The reasons have been well-rehearsed in this space, so we’ll skip them for now. He really likes Caesars, upping his target $6 to $89/share, noting that its William Hill purchase and i-gaming strategy are firming up nicely. “Additionally, CZR is attractively positioned for the return of the 55+ customer base to its casinos (we think this gains momentum along with vaccine distribution). During this period of COVID-19 related lockdowns/limited discretionary spend, many 55+ Caesars Rewards members have benefitted from increased savings and record-high home values and stock prices.”