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Las Vegas heats up; Zombies overrun Atlantic City

In a benchmark development, three of the four major Las Vegas Strip operators posted higher midweek rates for the July 4-July 10 period than in 2019. Caesars Entertainment was flat, probably due to its sheer proliferation of hotel rooms. MGM Resorts International inched up 2%, Wynncore was +22% and Venelazzo rose 9%. And we’re not even into convention season yet. Weekend rates tended to be stellar: MGM leapt 41%, Caesars hopped 19%, Wynn Resorts vaulted 54% and Las Vegas Sands was up 28%. Obviously the holiday weekend is a big contributor to this phenomenon but who would have thought the Strip would be outperforming 2019 so soon?

Perhaps visitors got a sneak peek at WalletHub‘s finding that Nevada is the third-most-fun state in our great country. It’s tops (like, duh) in access to casino and fourth in arts, entertainment and recreational venues. Surprisingly, the Silver State is 15th in access per capita to amusement parks and 17th in performing-arts theaters (all those casino showrooms, you know … although Las Vegas boasts a remarkably vigorous theatre scene). We could do better in access to national parks, ranking only 24th. Only California and Florida outdid Nevada (we blame Disney), while Mississippi and West Virginia are the least-fun places to be. Nevada has the fifth-fewest marinas per capita but, with the way Lake Mead is shrinking, can you blame us?

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Trump banned; Richmond: The fix was in

Donald Trump won’t be opening a casino in Doral. Neither will anyone else. Not if the Doral City Council has its way. It voted unanimously to bar casino gambling within the city, which encompasses The Donald’s struggling resort. This has nothing to do with Trump’s financial chicanery and moral turpitude (which ought to bar him from a gaming license outright), and everything to do with preserving the letter and spirit of Amendment 3 to the Florida constitution. The latter reads, in part, “This amendment ensures that Florida voters shall have the exclusive right to decide whether to authorize casino gambling by requiring that in order for casino gambling to be authorized under Florida law, it must be approved by Florida voters pursuant to Article XI, Section 3 of the Florida Constitution.” It’s hard to be much clearer than that. The juice job for Trump and Jeffrey Soffer recently passed by the Lege is unlikely to withstand the smell test in court and it certainly flopped with the Doral city fathers.

Stalking horse Eric Trump has been jawboning in favor of Doral for months, telling the Washington Post, “Many people consider Trump Doral to be unmatched from a gaming perspective—at 700 acres, properties just don’t exist of that size and quality in South Florida, let alone in the heart of Miami.” Admittedly, “many people” is usually Trumpspeak for “I’m totally pulling this out of my ass,” but even if Trump fils is right, that doesn’t make it constitutional. The Eric needn’t start putting slot machines in yet; a long court fight is surely looming over the Seminole compact, which has the watertight integrity of a sieve.

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Getting nasty in Florida; Police blotter

A “tortured artifice.” That’s what Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber (D) calls the new Florida gaming compact in a letter to the Interior Department. He urged them to reject the deal, not because of any issues with the Seminole Tribe, but on account of various baubles appended to the compact to placate private interests. Or, as Gelber put it in a nine-page missive Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, “It was simply a vehicle hijacked by non-tribal casino interests who fully corrupted the legislative and executive process in order to obtain advantages outside of tribal land and in direct contravention to the interests of Floridians.” Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ agenda, Gelber argues, was not to cut a deal with the Seminoles but to appease political donors and “his most important political patron,” Donald Trump. Incidentally, the latter is reportedly planning to flip his Doral resort to a gaming-centric corporation, should it get a casino license, which we didn’t expect.

Gelber accuses DeSantis of accepting free airplane rides and partying on yachts owned by his patrons, then rewarding them with gaming entitlements. “Indeed, their efforts paid off, as Governor DeSantis included provisions in the Florida Compact that set the groundwork for casino expansion for a prime campaign donor at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach and for his major political patron at the Trump Doral.”

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Don’t make mine Manhattan

That’s the word from key legislators, who have made it clear that Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) would be putting a casino in Manhattan over their dead bodies. “I believe it would be seriously detrimental to the residential and commercial quality of Manhattan,” said Assemblyman Richard Gottfried. Cuomo’s idea of compromise was to allow Manhattanites to hold their nose and choose where on the island a megaresort would go. Sort of a pick-your-poison deal. But lawmakers said that was spinach and to hell with it. “This got really close. It fell apart in the wee hours of the morning,” a source told the New York Post.

Meanwhile, executives for the three interested companies—Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and Bally’s Corp.—are waiting until January, when solons may revisit the issue. For Sands, which essentially builds convention centers with ‘big barn’ casinos tacked on, a Manhattan site may be crucial. As for Cuomo, he has sugarplum fairies bearing $1.5 million in licensing fees dancing in his head. In theory, it should be a five-way race for a three full-spectrum casinos but everyone and their brother expects MGM Empire State in Yonkers and Resorts World New York in Queens to be juiced into the first two licenses, leaving Sands and its ilk squabbling over the last one.

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Hard Rock, Ocean drub Borgata; Caesars massacres shows

Casinos in Atlantic City grossed $189.5 million last month, 9% behind their 2019 pace. Slots were off 5% and tables 17%. Regular top-grosser Borgata had a terrible month, falling 28%, spurring by lackluster table-game winnings (-34%), with slots tumbling 25%. The Caesars Entertainment threesome fared almost as poorly, sliding 20% as table win plunged 40% and slots were down 11%. Borgata’s $38.5 million gross put it within striking distance of hard-charging Hard Rock Atlantic City, which won 35% for a 51% leap in revenue. Also soaring was Ocean Casino, vaulting 45% to $22 million and elbowing aside Harrah’s Resort ($21 million, -24%) for third place. Caesars’ much-vaunted $400 million capex may not be enough to prevent a permanent change in the pecking order.

Caesars Atlantic City, despite its reputation for volatility, was a relatively stable -14.5%, grossing $19 million, while Tropicana Atlantic City closed out the portfolio, slipping 20% to $19 million. There was a surprise among the grind joints, with Resorts Atlantic City up a percentage point to $13 million. Little Golden Nugget won $11 million but that was a 29% plummet, while Bally’s Atlantic City also grossed $11 million, down 22.5%.

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Hail Caesars; Durango Station green-lit

“Solid … very encouraging … impressive momentum.” Those were some of the things JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff had to say about Caesars Entertainment‘s 1Q21 numbers. Cash flow of $548 million well exceed Greff’s expected $429 million, to say nothing of the Wall Street consensus of $408 million. The report continued, “we think stronger group volumes, incremental entertainment revenues, banquet/F&B, and overall hotel room pricing will drive continued growth in Las Vegas and the regionals recovery will continue, with, for CZR, a more acute recovery in Atlantic City and New Orleans, which have lagged.” Despite the struggles of Caesars in the latter two markets, Greff believes that the Roman Empire will record $3 billion in cash flow this year, up from his projected $2.4 billion. It looks like CEO Tom Reeg‘s euphoria about the second half of 2021—and Las Vegas in particular—was well-founded. Due to the exceptional strength of January and February 2020, Caesars’ year/year numbers were actually down. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli reports that Las Vegas was 39.5% lower ($497 million in revenue), regionals were off 17.5% ($1.1 billion) and managed/international properties were 30% lower ($94 million). So it wasn’t all sunshine and roses.

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Big win for Seminoles?; Parx the deadliest track of all

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) succeeded where predecessor Rick Scott failed, inking a pact with the Seminole Tribe that would unlock the $35o million a year that the Seminoles have been holding in escrow. In return, the tribe gets a pretty ‘george’ gambling expansion: three new casinos, craps and roulette (Take that, blackjack-offering racinos!), Internet gambling, and both retail and online sports betting. For his part, DeSantis was able to get the Seminoles to up their annual ante to the state to as much as $600 million a year over a period of 30 years, with $2.5 billion guaranteed by 2026 and $6 billion by 2031. So everybody wins.

Or do they? The Seminoles could yet be hoist on their own petard, having teamed with Disney to pass a constitutional amendment that puts any expansion of gambling in the hands of the voters. Which means the new compact is certain to face a court challenge. Then there’s the butter-fingered Lege, which has managed to fumble every significant piece of gaming legislation within memory. When last seen, lawmakers were trying to sneak through a sports-betting bill on the excuse that it wasn’t ‘casino gambling.’ Excuse us while we fall down laughing. At worst, however, legislators could disapprove or try to f-up the DeSantis compact with add-ons of their own.

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Sands blitzes Texas; Las Vegas “swarming” with tourists; Oscars suck

Starting last week, Las Vegas Sands has been blanketing the Texas airwaves with a barrage of pro-casino ads. Faced with a loss of traction in the Lege, Sands is turning to the court of public opinion. Going in drag as the Texas Destination Resort Alliance, Sands is using the ads to tout the virtues of a bill currently before lawmakers that would (among other virtues) establish $1 billion-$2 billion ‘destination resorts.’ The TV and radio spots highlight the amount of Lone Star State money being siphoned off by Oklahoma and Louisiana, saying, “Let’s boost our economy, create tens of thousands of jobs and help fund vital services like schools and public safety.” Both the state House and Senate versions of the casino bill are stuck in committee, and Sands is obviously hoping to budge them with an ad blast. Responding to criticism that this was a made-in-Vegas legislative push, Sands lobbyist Andy Abboud responded that Golden Nugget CEO Tilman Fertitta was being consulted on the proposed law.

Unsurprisingly, the problem-gambling issue was raised in committee. To this, state Rep. Charlie Geren (R) replied, “We already have negative social impact. Go no further than our borders than those with an addiction can drive less than 20 minutes and then return home to our state with no resources in place for them. Go no further than your smartphone, where illegal bets are bing placed on illegal bookie apps every day.” Well put.

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Vegas: green shoots galore; Seminoles saluted

Against all odds, it appears that Las Vegas‘ recovery is taking place faster than anticipated (save by a very few). A CNN feature is vaguely euphoric but it does cite several new must-see attractions. For the all-important convention business, which sustains the town Monday-Thursday, there is the lure of the West Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center, which may banish memories of the Riviera, whose site it occupies. Then there’s a triple-whammy of new casinos: Circa, Virgin Las Vegas (or Mohegan Sun Las Vegas, according to the TITO vouchers) and the July-debuting Resorts World Las Vegas, the most expensive megaresort yet built in Sin City. And, for a wholesome change of pace, the Pinball Hall of Fame reopens at a new location at the southern terminus of the Las Vegas Strip, complete with a park for food trucks. We sense a smash hit in the making.

More quantifiably, Plaza Hotel CEO Jonathan Jossel reports that business was “hopping” during March Madness and that casino play has regained pre-pandemic levels, which would be no small achievement. Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is so optimistic that he’s planning a return to full capacity in public spaces as of June 1 (Nye County, for one, is jumping the gun, going 100% on May 1). Self-service buffets—if they return—can come back at 50% on May Day, as can nightclubs and strip joints. (No word yet on brothels.) As for casinos going back to 100%, that’s the Nevada Gaming Control Board‘s call to make, although we imagine the pressure will be overwhelming.

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Trop flipped; Arizona, Maryland join sports-betting club

The Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. regime at Tropicana Las Vegas was (as planned) a short-lived one. GLPI just announced that it has flipped the Trop to Bally’s Corp., which evidently couldn’t wait one minute longer to get onto the Las Vegas Strip. For an unspecified “value” of the property, Bally’s gets the casino and pays $22.5 million in “incremental rent.” Not done yet, Bally’s sold the real estate of its Black Hawk, Colorado casino and that of Jumer’s Casino Rock Island for a combined $150 million. That’s a neat trick for Bally’s, considering that its purchase of Jumer’s (a real turkey) hasn’t closed yet. Sell something you don’t own? That’s clever. We wonder what Illinois regulators will think of this three-card monte. The Black Hawk and Rock Island casinos will be consolidated into a GLPI master lease that includes Bally’s rentals of Tropicana Evansville and Dover Downs. “Recall, last year, early on it the pandemic, GLPI received the Trop from PENN … last year in exchange for 2020 rent credits (since used and expired). We look at today’s news as a creative way for GLPI to extract long-term value from last year’s deal with PENN (which is no longer the OpCo nor has any economic/equity interest in the Trop),” wrote JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. As for Bally’s, it may need a stout dose of Geritol, as it is making a habit of buying casinos with tired blood in their veins.

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