Category: Advanced Strategy

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An Interesting Promotion

Bob Dancer

I wish I knew more about the promotion I’m writing about today, but I’ll share what I have surmised.

For the past several months, some Caesars Rewards properties have offered Next Day Bounceback (NDB). At these properties, if you play at least a minimum amount during a casino day (often 6 a.m. to 5:59 a.m. — but it varies), you get a certain amount of free play added to your account at approximately noon. The exact time can vary from casino to casino.

The percentage return can vary as well. I’ve seen it from 0.1% to 0.75%, depending on the casino. Some “expert” players get a lesser amount. At many of these casinos, the percentage amount returned is less today than it was six months ago.

Sometimes these casinos offer a multiplier to their NDB. At least one of the casinos offers a multiple NDB reward once a week (or sometimes once every other week). It’s at least 2x, and usually 2x, but sometimes more. You don’t learn if you received a 2x, 3x, or other multiplier until after the promotion is over. Another casino awards a 20x NDB multiplier weekly for two hours — but video poker is excluded from this promotion. There are daily limits for the amount of NDB you can earn — but this is only relevant for the biggest of high rollers. Well over 99% of all players won’t come close to earning the limit.

Usually, the casino won’t tell you what the percentage return is on the NDB promotion, so you have to figure it out yourself. Or ask a knowledgeable friend. 

To figure it out, you need to know how much money you received, and how much coin-in you played to earn that money. For example, let’s assume you played 500 Tier Credits (TCs) at video poker and received $20 in NDB. What percentage is that?

On most video poker machines at these properties, it requires $10 coin-in to earn one TC, so 500 TCs mean you played $5,000 through the machine. Your percentage return is $20 / $5,000 = 0.004 = 0.4%. 

At some of these casinos, it takes $20 or $25 to earn a TC on the loosest video poker machines. In these cases, 500 TCs mean you played $10,000 or $12,500, respectively. The percentage return becomes 0.2% or 0.16%, respectively.

Slot players at these casinos typically earn one TC for $5 coin-in, so if you’re a slot player, the return, in this case, is 0.8%.

The percentage you’ve received before does not have to be the percentage you’re going to receive today. While the percentage rate could go up, I suppose, I’ve only seen it stay the same or go down. 

While NDB becomes available at noon, it needs to be downloaded into your bank within a certain number of days (which varies by casino) and once it’s in your bank it’s good for 72 hours (or some other period of time). The Caesars Rewards booth at the particular casino you’re interested in will likely tell you these lengths of time.

At one out-of-town casino I frequent, NDB used to be good for 90 days after earning it, but now it is only good for 30 days. If I have to leave for my flight home before noon on my last day, this might mean I don’t play on the next-to-last day. That’ll be the day for sightseeing. If I leave for my flight after noon, I probably won’t play between 6 a.m. and when I leave because if I did, I would forfeit any NDB I earned. If I were a local, I wouldn’t worry about this because I know I’ll be back before my NDB expires.

On the last day of my stay, it could be that a promotion is in effect that dwarfs whatever I could earn from NDB, so I’ll keep playing after 6 a.m. even though I know that I won’t be able to collect the NDB (assuming I’m not planning on returning to this casino within the requisite time period.)

The expiration period for multiple NDB days does not have to be the same as the regular 1x NDB days. In fact, it usually isn’t.

For most players, they’ll learn to stay until after noon on their last day in order to collect their extra money. This means they might stay longer than they used to. For most players, NDB means they’ll lose less money because of this “rebate,” although many will simply play more and it’ll all come out about the same.

These casinos have multiple promotions and NDB is just one of them. Often, you’ll have multiplier days for TCs or Reward Credits (RCs), which are different. Sometimes if you play a certain number of TCs you get extra benefits. Sometimes you earn benefits that are hard to quantify (such as 100x drawing tickets). These casinos have monthly mailers and for big-enough players, they’ll receive a certain amount of free play based on how much they played.

As best I can, I try to add up the value of the benefits with the return of the video poker machine I’m playing. Sometimes I can get it pretty precise. Sometimes it’s sort of a scientific wild-assed guess based on the best information I have. 

When I play slots, it’s hard to get the precise percentage return. I might know that it’s positive-equity to play a certain machine when the mini meter is above 22 or the minor meter is above 30, but if I find a machine when these numbers are at 21 and 29, I assume I have the advantage but I’m unsure how much. While both numbers are slightly below being positive in and of themselves, the combination is surely a good one to play.

Also. when I play slots, I usually only play when one-or-more meters is above a certain level. When it’s no longer that high, I move on and try to find another game in a positive state. On each machine I check, it could be there are 50 different amounts to check, ranging perhaps from 50 cents to 50 dollars. Any of these could be positive and I won’t know before I go check which one(s) will be that way. In video poker, on the other hand, I’m usually playing one particular machine and I know going in what denomination I’ll be playing and the return on the game.

I don’t know how much longer NDB will last. The fact that the return rates have been decreasing leads me to conclude that they will be down to zero in the relatively near future — at least at some of these properties— but I could be wrong. 

When the new tax law kicks in on January, if enough players quit or cut back, these casinos might increase NDB in order to lure players back. For me this won’t work, but it might for some other players.

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Career Path — Part II of II

Bob Dancer

In last week’s blog, in a semi-fictionalized story, I had a conversation with a recent college graduate, “John,” about whether he should become a professional gambler. I think I should have given him the “Stan and Pearl” test to see if he understands the basics of gambling.

I first discussed Stan and Pearl in my Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography. (Actually, it was my first autobiography. I’m considering penning Million Dollar Video Poker: The Next 25 Years if the new tax law provides me with a lot more free time than I currently have. We’ll see.) Every student who attended one of my “Secrets of a Video Poker Winner” classes has heard this story, and I’ve written about it in this blog at least a few times — but not for several years, and some of my readers haven’t been exposed to it before.

Most people believe the Stan and Pearl problem is very easy. And it is. Surprisingly, however, a high percentage of people get the wrong answer the first time they hear the problem. People who correctly understand what successful gambling is all about get it correct every time. People who don’t understand successful gambling, but think they do, often get it wrong.

Stan and Pearl are imaginary video poker playing friends. They play video poker with a level of skill and discipline far beyond what is found in most players. 

The game they play perfectly is $1 9/6 Jacks or Better — without a slot club, returning a bit more than 99.5%. 

Stan plays 10 hands every day and then, win or lose, stops. 

Pearl plays 10 hands every day. If she has hit a flush or higher (paying 30 coins or more), she plays another five hands (costing 25 coins). If in those five hands she connects on another flush or higher, she plays another five hands. Eventually she’ll hit a five-hand dry spell and will quit for the day.

Stan stops and Pearl parlays. “Parlay” is a term with quite a few different definitions. Here I’m using it to mean she bets with her winnings.

The question is: Assuming Stan and Pearl follow their strategy perfectly, who is likely to have the better cumulative score at the end of one year?

Don’t let the genders of these imaginary friends influence your decision. The names were selected for wordplay reasons. I could just as easily have made them both men —Stan and Paul — or both women —Stella and Pearl. 

When I teach it in class, I ask the students to raise their hands if they think Pearl will have the better score. I then ask the people with a hand up why they chose Pearl. The answers typically include:

“She’s riding a hot streak — betting more when she’s winning.”

“When she’s not winning anymore, she stops.”

“She’s playing more, giving her a better chance at getting lucky.”

Pretty soon we exhaust the reasons why people select Pearl. I then announce that anyone who voted for Pearl having the better annual score has no clue about what the winning process is all about.

I then ask if someone who voted for Stan having the better score will explain why. Almost always I get the correct answer: 9/6 Jacks or Better without a slot club is a game where the house has a half-percent advantage. Since Pearl plays more when the house has the advantage, she will lose more than Stan, on average. Since Stan plays less of this negative game, he will lose less. They will both be net losers, but Stan will lose less.

I then give them the second version of the puzzle. This time they are playing the same 99.5% game but there is now a 1% cash slot club. Stan still plays 10 hands per day, and Pearl still plays at least 10 hands, and more if she hits a flush or higher. Now who likely has the better score?

Most of the class correctly vote for Pearl this time. With the slot club, the player has a half-percent advantage over the house and now whoever bets more has the better chance of coming out ahead.

In summary, if you have the advantage, over time you’ll likely come out ahead. If you don’t, you likely won’t.

The reason I’m bringing this story out again is that in the scenario I outlined in last week’s blog, I had a discussion with a recent college graduate about whether he could pursue a life as a professional gambler. 

I wished I had given him this test. Anyone wishing to succeed at gambling should get the right answer for the right reason.

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Does It Follow?

Bob Dancer

Assume you’re trying to figure out which casino to frequent in Las Vegas. You’ve heard that I’ve played at the South Point and have done well there. Does it follow that the South Point is a good place for you to play?

Some factors to consider:

  1. What game(s) do I play there? 
  2. Is that (are those) game(s) available there at stakes that are comfortable for you?
  3. Do you know that (those) game(s) well?
  4. Do I limit my play there to cases when certain promotions are going on? If so, is that promotion going to be in effect when you wish to play?
  5. I am a senior, and South Point has senior days. Do I play on senior days and are you a senior?
  6. For the right promotion, I can play many hours starting at any time of the day or night. Are you comfortable with playing any shift depending on promotions?
  7. Are you eligible to play there? South Point, like most or maybe all casinos, has restricted certain players from getting mailers, and others from even getting slot club points. Are you such a person?
  8. I play there as a local. Out-of-towners receive a different package of benefits than locals do. Are you a local?
  9. Do you like the South Point? Liking any particular casino is an individual preference. If you don’t like the South Point for any reason, it’s probably not a good choice for you.
  10. The casino has removed several of its loosest games recently. There are still plenty of good games — though not as many as there used to be. Is the game you want to play still there?
  11. If I lose several thousand dollars playing a promotion where I believe I have the advantage, it’s not really a big deal to me. Are you that sanguine about losses?
  12. The promotions at the South Point are much less generous than they were a few years ago. How does this affect the profitability of playing there?
  13. They used to have a better selection of persistence slots than they now. While this affects the casino’s desirability from my point of view, if you’re not a slot player, this is irrelevant to you. 
  14. The casino recently slashed the cash back rate in half for video poker players — going from 0.30% to 0.15%. Does this change how much, if at all, I still play there?

I could extend this list, but you get the point. Even knowing I play there, there are things about my play that you do not know. I don’t publish exactly how much I play there, on which games, and why I’m playing certain promotions and avoiding others.

What prompted me to write this blog is that I recently read “You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake,” by Olivier Sibony. This book uses behavioral economics concepts previously explored by authors such as Daniel Kahneman, Dan Ariely, Amos Tversky, Richard Thayler and others to examine mistakes made in business and how to avoid them.

One of the concepts that he spends a lot of time on is that it rarely makes sense to exactly copy what somebody else is doing. Circumstances are always a bit different when you’re trying to follow somebody else’s footprints. It’s usually better to do something similar, yet different.

While it was addressed in terms of Fortune 500 companies, I suggest it applies to video poker players as well — where each of us tries to manage our own gambling business. Those who take it beyond the strictly recreational level make decisions and actions aimed at trying to succeed.

So how should knowing thatI play at the South Point affect your decisions? Probably as a “check it out” type of deal. Even if you aren’t trying to copy me exactly, that fact that I find it a worthwhile place to play (or at least I did before they cut the slot club cash back rate) should indicate that there’s probably something worthwhile there.

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A Different Sort of Advantage Play

Bob Dancer

When I’m in Las Vegas, I usually drive my own car to go places. Sometimes, though, using rideshare is convenient. Like going to or from the airport. Or taking me to physical therapy appointments when I’m recovering from one surgery or another and I’m not supposed to drive. While I do enjoy a glass of wine with dinner periodically, I haven’t been too impaired to drive safely since my college days more than 50 years ago, but I suppose it could happen again.

I have both Lyft and Uber accounts set up, but in 20 trials, Lyft was always cheaper than Uber. So, I only use Lyft. It’s possible that Uber might be cheaper than Lyft some of the time. Since many of the Lyft drivers also drive for Uber, I’m assuming the experience itself is pretty similar between the two companies.

Bonnie and I go to Reno 20 times a year or so. While most of our play is at one casino, we do play at others there and so earn free play. We schedule our trips, among other parameters, so we can pick up any free play we’re offered.

If we have three or more casinos to visit during a trip (or if Lake Tahoe, which is 60 miles away, has one of those casinos), we’ll rent a car. But if it’s only two casinos, we’ll take the shuttle from the airport to get to the first casino offering free play, and Lyft our way to the casino where we’ll stay. While we could take a shuttle back to the airport and get another shuttle from the airport to the second casino, that can easily take an hour or so and Lyft is much quicker.

On one occasion, we did this in reverse. That is, we took the shuttle to the main casino we were going to stay for the trip and used Lyft to take us to the second. From there, we would take a shuttle to the airport. 

On this occasion, I brought most of our luggage down to the video poker machine I play, and was waiting for Bonnie to join me. She was still in the room and was going to meet me at the machine. I opened up the Lyft app to check how much it would be to go to the second casino and found out it was $12.50. I didn’t order the ride (Bonnie wasn’t there yet), but I left the app open. Five minutes later, the price was $9.75, and ten minutes after that it was $18.

While I knew rideshare pricing is based on supply and demand, I didn’t realize it jumped around so much so quickly.

When Bonnie arrived, the price was $14.35. I waited a few minutes and it dropped to $10.95, which I took. That wasn’t the lowest price of the day, but if I took the earlier price of $9.75, the ride would have come and gone before Bonnie got there. And leaving Bonnie behind wasn’t an option.

But $10.95 was a relatively low price. It was much lower than $18 and was the second-lowest price I’d seen in the last half hour. It’s possible the next price would be $8.35, but it’s also possible it would be $17.70. I have to pull the trigger some time, so I pick a price that is relatively low.

It’s possible that the first price I see will be the lowest one for quite some time. I won’t get that price, usually. Unless we’ve taken the same route at the same time of day several times, we don’t know a good price from a bad price. So we almost always get a few prices and pick a relatively low one.

Now, Bonnie and I make a game out of which Lyft price to take. If the price drops when we’re ready to go, we jump on it and feel good about saving $1.25 or so. Never mind that we might be up or down $40,000 for the trip.

In Las Vegas when we take Lyft from the airport home, I expect the price to be rather stable. During normal business hours, there are always a lot of people wanting to use Lyft to get away from the airport. The last time we took it, the price was $19.99, and it stayed that way for almost ten minutes. Finally, it dropped all the way to $19.85. I took it. 

When I “bragged” to Bonnie about saving a whole 14 cents, we both laughed. This time, what we saved was essentially zero. But doing this over and over again, we’ll get lower prices in total than if we blindly just take the first one.

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Crying Over Spilt Milk

Bob Dancer

The new tax law was signed on July 4, 2025. The gambling provisions have little effect on recreational gamblers but are career-endingly serious for professional gamblers. The Gambling with an Edge podcast with Russell Fox about this new tax law was posted July 16, and you can find it on YouTube or in several other places.

There are several possibilities that this law could be changed before January 1, 2026 — and we won’t know for some time if any of these possibilities will come in.  While Richard Munchkin expressed optimism in the podcast about one of these avenues for changing the law coming to fruition before January 1, I’m less sanguine about it. I’m preparing for my gambling life as I know it to be over in a few months.

For those unaware of how punitive this new law is for professional gamblers, consider two recent years of mine. In both years my W-2Gs added up to about $6 million. I’m playing high denominations games with a small edge. In one year, my gambling score was -$150,000 and in the other, +$200,000. I have non-gambling income as well. I also record my gambling expenses, which I’m entitled to do as I file as a professional gambler.

In the first year, since I lost money gambling, I paid no taxes on the gambling part of my income. In the second year, I paid quite a bit. Nobody likes to pay taxes, certainly including me, but it’s the price we pay to live in this country.

Under the new law, I would only be able to deduce $5.4 million in gambling losses in each year. (W-2Gs are considered proven gambling wins by the IRS and you can deduct up to 90% of them as losses.) That means in both years (one I lost $150,000 and the other I won $200,000), I would owe taxes on $600,000 of phantom income, in addition to the taxes on my other income. Minus 90% of my gambling expenses, of course, but those came nowhere near $600,000.)

It won’t take many of these tax years to wipe me out completely.

Some people manage to avoid paying taxes by simply lying about how much they make. When you get W-2Gs, though, you can’t lie about them. They go to the IRS and your tax return should claim at least the total dollar amount on the W-2Gs as in on the IRS computers, or they will come after you. In the past, it was always safe to add a few hundred thousand dollars to the W-2G total (because they would all be written off), but starting next year, adding $200,000 to this total will increase the amount you have to pay taxes on by $20,000.

Playing single-line quarters and avoiding W-2Gs altogether is not something I’m interested in. I don’t gamble “for fun.” I gamble for profit and the profit you can make playing games this small are smaller than I wish to seek. I know some of my readers take this route, and I’m not putting them down in any respect, but it’s not the life I want for me.

I’m both planning on exploiting the games I find for the last five months of this year, and planning on what I’m going to do with the rest of my life. This second kind of planning is both more difficult and not as far along as my plans for the rest of this year. It may well include stopping writing this blog. Most of the blog-posts here are inspired by something happening in a casino. If I won’t be in casinos, I’ll simply run out of new things to say. I already repeat myself more than some of you like. 

I’ve considered stiffing casinos on my way out the door on December 31, but have decided against it. While the gambling law might not change prior to 2026, there are also possibilities it could change in mid-2026 or later and I want to keep casino doors open to me should that happen. Stopping playing because of the tax law is easy for casino to understand. If they tolerated my action before, they will probably welcome me back. Taking front money and then not playing (so as to maximize my short-term profits on the way out the door) is much harder for casinos to forgive. So, I won’t do it.

One thing I won’t do is to lie around and cry over opportunities lost. I’ve had a longer and more successful gambling career than most, and if it ends in five months, so be it. I’ve saved enough to be set (unless the Doomsday Clock actually strikes twelve, which is definitely possible), so Bonnie and I will make the best of the time we have left together.

And, of course, I will hope the law gets changed soon. If it does, I plan to be ready to go in 2026 right where leave off on in 2025.

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Do Tariffs Affect Winning in the Casino?

Bob Dancer

I rarely write about politics. After all, whatever my political views are, it’s a safe bet that many of you have opposite views. Since part of my business model is to have some of you buy my beat-the-casinos literature, the fewer people I can alienate, the better for me.

Even though tariffs are about as political as it can get these days, what I have to say isn’t particularly political. My subject matter deals with how players take advantage of this situation.

Tariffs, basically, are a tax on imports — intended to protect the home country at the expense of foreign countries. My personal prejudice is that free trade, meaning no tariffs at all, is the better plan, but that’s neither here nor there. It is not my goal to try to convince you that my belief is best.

Consumers and business can adapt to relatively small tariffs if they’re predictable. The problem is uncertainty. If tariffs are announced, and then delayed, and then reinstated at a different rate, and then exceptions are announced, and then the courts make rulings changing the legality of tariffs — and then sometimes overturn those rulings — we have a whole lot of uncertainty. It’s hard for a small business to decide what to order for the Christmas season if that business can’t know what the prices are going to be. 

Casinos, especially the large ones with hotels, have to buy thousands of items of all sorts to supply their needs. Some of those items have been hit with tariffs, which increases their costs the same as any other business.

This is compounded with a shrinking player base. Their customers (including you and me) are facing higher costs due to the tariffs. Many of their bigger customers are small business owners, who are facing an uncertain financial environment. While there are some players who are going to continue to gamble come Hell or high water, many gamblers are cutting back for a while.

Casinos typically react to rising costs and a shrinking player base in one of two completely opposite ways. The first of these is bad for the players and should be avoided, and the second is good for the players and I, for one, am playing more at such casinos.

The first way — bad for the players — is for the casino to tighten everything. Good pay tables are eliminated, mailers cut, and promotions are reduced. The casino is attempting to ride out this economic situation by reducing costs. There are several such casinos in Las Vegas, and I’m reducing or eliminating my play at them.

The second way that casinos deal with this economic situation is to bribe players to come in and play. They do this by having better promotions than they usually do. They reason that they will benefit from extra play as many players are fleeing from the other casinos that are tightening up. There are a few casinos that are doing this. When I find them, I patronize them and attempt to take advantage of their promotions.

This requires more scouting than usual, but for me, so far, once I figured out what to look for, it has been a successful approach. At this point, I’m not identifying the casinos I’m playing at less and the ones I’m playing at more. Maybe later. But once your eyes have been opened to what to look for, it’s not that hard to figure out which casinos have which approach to dealing with this economic situation.

Note: Let’s keep the comments, if any, on ways to beat the casino and away from politics. Whether you are in favor or opposed to Trump and his policies, or believe the courts are helping or hurting the situation, if you post such opinions in this thread, I will delete your post. Whatever your political views, there are other forums where your comments on that are welcome. My blog is not such a forum. Additional note: Since I prepared this blog and before its release date, Congress passed a law greatly penalizing gamblers tax-wise. So greatly that I, for one, am strongly considering giving up gambling at the end of 2025. At the age of 78, I’ll have to figure out what I want to do when I grow up. Richard Munchkin and I are attempting to get our tax guru, Russell Fox, to do a special episode of Gambling with an Edge. Assuming Russell Fox comes on the show, after talking to him I may find a way to continue my profession. We’ll see. As in the previous note, if you comment on this, keep it away from political diatribes. Keep it on the theme of succeeding at gambling.

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Should I Say Anything?

Bob Dancer

The details of today’s incident caused me to wonder whether I should say anything to casino management. If they chose to “fix” the inconsistency it could either go in a way that would slightly benefit or slightly hurt other players. I’ve kept quiet, but I am writing about it. Maybe one or more of you will speak up about it. I’m sure this happens in more places than I know about.

The One Club is the slot club system used by Circa, Golden Gate, and The D, in downtown Las Vegas — all of which are casinos owned by Derek Stevens.  Among other benefits, Bonnie and I each receive $100 in food and beverage twice a month from the One Club. We redeem these comps at 8 East and Saginaw’s Delicatessen inside Circa and Joe Vicari’s Andiamo’s Steakhouse  inside The D. There are other eligible food outlets and numerous bars, but these are the places we frequent.

The idiosyncrasy that prompted this blog post is that the two restaurants at Circa include sales tax of 8.5% or so against our comp balance when we eat there and the one at the D doesn’t. So, we get $100 retail worth of food at The D and only about $92 worth at Circa. And both casinos belong to the same organization.

In many casino restaurants, sales tax disappears when you use a comp or pay with points. Things can vary when the restaurants are not owned by the casino but just rent the space. Some of these don’t accept comps at all, but others, like Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses in various Harrah’s casinos, charge extra if you are using comps.

There are other Joe Vicari restaurants around the country, so I’m guessing Andiamo’s isn’t actually owned by The D. And that’s the place that waives sales tax for compees. I can find no other Saginaw’s Delicatessens or 8 East restaurants on Google, so I’m guessing these are owned by Circa. 

I’ve not met Derek Stevens, the owner of the other casinos involved here, but he has the reputation of being approachable. I believe I could find a way to ask him about his sales tax on comps policy if I tried hard enough. 

But what would happen if I did? One possibility is that he would remove this internal inconsistency by starting to charge sales tax on comped dinners at Andiamo’s — which is a solution that players certainly don’t want.

So, I’ll let things be and remain curious about why things are the way they are. There are a whole lot of situations where I don’t understand things, but I don’t have a mission in life to get to the bottom of everything.

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A Closer Look at the NSU Puzzler

Bob Dancer

Last week my blog consisted of five mini-blogs. Each of these was about something I wanted to say but none was worth an entire column.

The last of these, changing notation slightly, was that you were playing NSU Deuces Wild and were dealt W45K as your first four cards, where the W represents a deuce and bold italics represent the cards that are suited with each other. Last week I called them all spades. It doesn’t really matter, but I’ll keep that true this week because it will simplify the answer. The question was: Of the possible 48 cards remaining in the deck, how many of them make the proper hold for the hand be exactly W45?

After I prepared that blog, but before it was published, I asked the same question to a couple of player-friends. They each had several answers/guesses and didn’t get the correct answer until I suggested they look it up on computer software. Before going on, I’ll be talking about relatively advanced concepts today. If you’re a beginning player, trying to learn advanced concepts before you have mastered the basics can mess up your learning process. You’ve been warned!

First let me give you how to play each of the 48 possible hands, and then I’ll tell you why. The dollar figures on each line tell you how much of an error it would be if you played W45 and you were playing for dollars, five coins at a time.

9 cards — any spade gives you a five-card flush. $10.31

3 cards — any deuce makes the correct play WW45. $15.65

9 cards — any 4, 5, or K gives you 3-of-a-kind. $4.78

15 cards — any non-spade A, 3, 6, 7, or 8 gives you a hand where the solitary deuce is the correct hold because these cards provide a straight penalty and the original K penalty . Between 9 cents and 20 cents, depending on which card we’re talking about

9 cards — any non-spade 9, J, or Q also gives you a correct hold of the deuce by itself because of “Power of the Pack” reasons and the possibility of a wild royal flush. Between 0.6 cents and 1.5 cents, depending on which card we’re talking about.

3 cards — any non-spade T makes the correct hold W45. Better than the solitary deuce by 0.9 cents. So, the correct answer was 3 out of 48 cards.

Now let’s talk about it. For the first three categories: the flush, 3-of-a-kind, and WW45, I’m not going to discuss any further. They should be obvious to all readers of a video poker column.

The next category, any A, 3, 6, 7, or 8 which are all straight penalties to W45, plus the king of spades which is a flush penalty. In Level 4 strategy on both the Dancer Daily strategy card and the Winner’s Guide, it says hold the deuce itself when there is both a flush and straight penalty. 

The next category, any 9, J, or Q, has Power of the Pack considerations. In the Winner’s Guides, we used the term “Pack” to indicate the remaining cards after the first five have been dealt. Here I’m slightly modifying that to indicate the remaining cards after the first four have been dealt.

When you are considering one or more deuces by themselves, the more cards that are already dealt at the extremes of the A3456789TJQKA continuum, the more likely you are to end up with a straight or straight flush with the cards remaining in the pack.

The king itself is the critical card here. For this rule to apply the cards must specifically be KQ, KJ, or K9, with one of them suited with the W45.

The reason why W45K T has a different play than W45K 9 is that the T interferes with wild royal flushes when you hold the deuce by itself. Out of the 178,365 possible draws from that deuce, 192 of them form a wild royal when you are dealt a T and throw it away compared to 236 of them form a wild royal when you are dealt a 9 and throw it away.

As we already mentioned, the flush and straight penalty cards lead to an error of between 9 cents and 20 cents. For some players, that is too small to worry about. I understand. For recreational players, going through the trouble to learn, memorize, and recall this penalty card situation is more trouble than it’s worth. Especially since it’s a relatively rare hand. Still, to me this a MAJOR ERROR, far larger than I’m willing to voluntarily put up with.

The Power of the Pack considerations at the end are all worth less than two cents. Which is why these corrections were listed in the appendix to the Winner’s Guide while the rule including flush and straight penalties was listed in our Level 4 Advanced strategy. 

Even though it’s not always worth a whole lot, I have all of these rules memorized and apply them whenever they arise. Part of this is because I play for larger stakes than $1, five coins at a time. Part of it is because, in spring 2025, coin-in on this game is probably more than 50% of all my gambling activity. And part of it is just my outlook on gambling — if I’m going to do it, I look for every legal edge I can get.

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Something I Had Forgotten

Bob Dancer

In downtown Las Vegas there are three related casinos — Circa, D, and Golden Gate. These properties share the same slot club. Weekly free play from the mailers may be redeemed at any of the properties.

There are shared mixed-game mixed-denomination video poker progressives, mostly at bars, at all three properties — probably more that 200 individual machines. There are separate progressives for 25 cents, 50 cents, $1, $2, and $5 — although the 25-cent denomination is capped at $1,199, which is considerably less than being positive.

Although you have your choice of several games, in terms of return to the player, the best one to play is 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. At reset it is worth 98.5% or so. In early April, I noticed the $2 game at $14,000, which makes it worth 100.2% — plus mailers and other slot club benefits. I decided to go home, practice at the level of $14,500 and come back the next day and start firing.

I knew that last year the LVA Members Reward Coupon Book had coupons for at least two of the three properties where if you play 1,000 points in one 24-hour period, you get $100 in free play. I decided to check to see whether this year’s book had the same. It turns out they did for both Golden Gate and D, but not for Circa. But still, since I was planning to play many hours at this game, I figured that I could redeem both of these coupons. If the progressive went off before I reached the entire $100 in free play, I’d find something else to play.

The next day, the progressive was only at $14,080. I guess nobody figured it was a play yet. But I was there and prepared, so I went to the booth at D and redeemed my coupon. It only took an hour or so to play the 1,000 points, so I went back to the booth and received the free play. This free play was only good at the D rather than all the properties. So, I played off the free play and walked the two blocks to the Golden Gate and repeated the process.

After several hours, I needed to end for the day. The progressive was now at $14,200, but I had to let it go. The next day I was back and the progressive was still live. So, I sat down and started hammering away again. After six or so hours I again had to leave, so I did.

Same thing the next day. Eventually somebody else hit the royal at $15,800 and I was down a couple of thousand dollars — which is what happens when you play progressives and you’re not the one who hits it. No regrets.

When I was reviewing the strategy, I paid most attention to the hands with royal possibilities. Hands where you can’t get a royal, such as 99443, are played the same at all levels of the progressive, but hands like KQJ4 K, where the cards in bold italics are suited with each other, definitely change. At low levels of the progressive, you hold KK. At higher levels you hold KQJ.

Since I knew the 9/6 version of the game perfectly, I just used that strategy most of the time. I knew, for example, that in 9/6, on a hand like an unsuited KQJTT, you hold KQJT but on QJT99 you hold 99. My 8/6 strategy sheet, however, said with QJT99 you should hold QJT9. I wondered if this was an error on my strategy sheet or if this was actually a real difference between the 9/6 and 8/6 versions.

It turned out that my written 8/6 strategy was correct, and with that hand you hold 99 with 9/6 and QJT9 at 8/6. It’s a close play but the extra bit you receive from a 45-coin full house compared to a 40-coin full house is enough to make a difference on the 1-in-98 times you end up with a full house starting from 99.

I’ve played this progressive three or four times in the past, and this strategy change from 9/6 to 8/6 feels like one I would remember. But I didn’t. When I saw it on my 8/6 strategy sheet it seemed completely new to me. Since last time I played it on the $1 machine at $7,600, I just sat down and started to play when I found it. If the QJT99 hand came up that time, I probably misplayed it.

Oh well. My memory isn’t what it used to be, which is why I review before playing. While I am a pretty confident player, I think I’m fortunate that I can recognize my limitations and compensate for them. I know other players who can’t be bothered reviewing strategy because they figure they know everything. 

It sounds almost self-contradictory that I’m proud that I’m humble enough to get help when I need it, but that’s the way it is for me.

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Evaluating a Promotion

Bob Dancer

I received an email from a player who told me of a promotion at a Caesars/Harrah’s/Eldorado property. He wanted to know if it was worth playing, although he didn’t say which exact property it was or even in which state it was located, although the player lived in the southeastern part of the United States so that narrows it down somewhat. It seems like for a particular day, the property was offering 5x Next Day Bounceback (NDB) cash.

More than one property in the Caesars Rewards system has daily NDB. Let’s say you’re playing that promotion on a Monday. At the casino where I’ve played it, if you play at least 100 Tier Credits between 6 a.m. Monday and 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, you’ll receive free play at noon on Tuesday. The free play is generally good for 90 days. These parameters do not have to be the same for other properties.

At most of these casinos, it takes $5 coin-in to earn one Tier Credit (TC) for slots and $10 coin-in to earn one TC at video poker. I’ve been at other properties where, for the loosest video poker, it can take $20, $25, or even $50 to earn one TC. Just staying with the standard $10 per TC at video poker, it’s obvious to those with at least a little bit of mathematical facility that it takes twice as much coin-in at video poker to earn the same number of TCs as it does at slots. Therefore, the percentage return of NDB for video poker is half as much for video poker as it is for slots.

If you would earn, say, $200 in a “normal” NDB day, at the casino where I’ve played, playing on a 2x NDB day gives you that $200, and then when you’ve played that off, gives you another $200. The second $200 expires in seven days, not 90.

Any of these parameters can be different at other properties, but at least this gives you a template of what to look for. If I were considering playing at this 5x NDB day, I would do the following:

  1. I would find out how much “regular” NDB is worth. You can do this by actually playing, keeping track of how many TCs you earn, and then see how much NDB you receive the next day. If you know some other player who has played at that casino when NDB was in effect, perhaps they’ll be willing to share the information with you.
  1. Let’s assume at this casino that the daily NDB returns 0.25% for video poker. A 5x NDB day would then be worth 1.25%. Games like 9/6 DDB and 15-9-4-4-3 Deuces Wild now become slightly positive for competent players. If the regular NDB is 0.50% for video poker, then 5x NDB would be worth 2.50% and several additional games now are worth more than 100% if you play them correctly.
  1. Normal Caesars Rewards benefits remain in effect. That is, Reward Credits (RCs) (generally earned 1-1 along with TCs) may be redeemed for comps, free play, or sports bets. Play enough and you can earn Platinum, Diamond, or Seven Stars status — each with benefit packages. Playing 500 TCs in one day earns you a 500 TC bonus. There are a number of steps topping out at a 10,000 TC bonus for 5,000 or more TCs earned in a day. If you play enough, you may well get offers in the mail with incentives to come back.
  1. I would check to see how long the NDB free play is good. If this is not a casino that I knew I’d be back to before the free play expired, I would stay at least until noon the next day and play off what I’ve earned. Although this will reduce my daily theoretical by 50% for this trip (assuming it will become a two-day trip instead of a one-day trip), generally speaking collecting the NDB I’ve earned is worth more than the reduced theoretical.
  1. I would check the entire floor to see what games are available. If there are only a few “good” machines, I might be there at 4 a.m. for a promotion that starts at 6 a.m. If I had a friend or two who were interested in playing the same machine during the same promo, I might agree on a schedule where all of us got to play our hours over the 24-hour period. I would look for friends who could be depended on to play the hours they agreed to. I would not want someone who, say, would leave early if they got down $1,000 or so. If that happened, whoever had a “shift” after that might well not have a seat available.
  1. If the best game isn’t one I knew how to play, I would learn it. I sell strategy cards and Winner’s Guides for a number of games and the Wizard of Odds website has a video poker strategy calculator that works for several games. Videopoker.com has, for a fee, an online “Pro” game where you can practice and get corrections until you have a game mastered. You can get a monthly subscription or an annual one. The more time you have between knowing which games are available and the day the 5x NDB is in effect, the more time you have to perfect your skills. There will always be players who show up on the day of the promotion and “wing it” without preparation, but that’s not the practice I recommend.
  1. If I were a big player (say, $25 machines or maybe $5 Ten Play) I’d definitely check with Caesars Rewards if there’s a limit on how much I can earn in a day. If the 5x NDB were worth 2%, for example, playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus perfectly is worth about 101% until I reach the daily limit but only about 99% thereafter. That would certainly affect how many hours I wanted to attack the machines.
  1. Assuming profit maximization is my goal, with the NDB, with or without a multiplier, it can be better to play a lesser game EV-wise at higher stakes than a higher game EV-wise at lower stakes. For example, let’s assume for $1 stakes you can play 8-5 Bonus worth 99.17% and for $5 stakes 9/6 DDB, worth 98.98% is available. If you can play $4,000 coin-in per hour on the dollar game and $20,000 coin-in per hour on the $5 game, with most NDB amounts the DDB game has a higher dollar EV. Keep in mind that even though playing DDB has a higher dollar EV, the variance is much higher than that of BP and it’s possible to lose MUCH more than what you’ll get back from NDB. If you have the financial and psychological bankroll for this, go for it! But it’s not my fault if it doesn’t turn out well for you this particular time. As in all gambling, if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
  1. There are properties where even with 2% bounce back, there are no games I would consider playing. Since I don’t know which casino we’re talking about, I can’t give a definite recommendation to play. But if I lived relatively close and was going to be available on the day of the 5x event, I’d definitely check it out.