Category: Advanced Strategy

Often, I’ve heard players tell a video poker story of a time when their score was positive on a given day, but then they “got greedy” and ended up with a negative result. The phrase is usually accompanied by some self-loathing. Perhaps, “Why did I let myself do that again. I know better!”

I almost never say that, although I’ve certainly had my share of experiences where my score went south after I was ahead for a while. Today I want to look at that term.

I’m not going Gordon Gekko on you and proclaiming, “Greed is good!” As I’m using it today, greed is a negative trait.

Let’s also accept in general that winning is good and losing is bad. Then losing intentionally would be a bad thing. One more premise we must accept is that gambling scores go up and down. We can all recount what happened over the last half hour. None of us can accurately predict what swings will happen in the next half hour.

To my mind then, so long as I am playing a game that exceeds 100% in theoretical return, and playing to the best of my ability, when I lose, it’s just a circumstance I cannot control. I know it’s going to happen sometimes. Frequently, even. I just don’t know if it is going to happen today or not. 

If I hated myself after each loss, then I’d be in a psychologically unhealthy profession. Losing is just part of the game.

Most players, of course, aren’t playing games where they have the advantage. They either can’t find good games, don’t know how to play them well, or possibly are in the mood to play and don’t really care whether or not they have the advantage. For players like this, if they’re just thinking about the royal flush without accurately considering the cost to get it, then yes, perhaps that could be said to be “greedy.” But that’s not the way most players use the term.

As best as I can tell, some players who use the term simply mean they lost and aren’t happy about it. Perhaps they’re telling what poker players refer to as a bad beat story. If that’s the case, no big deal.

Others, perhaps, are justifying their loss by admitting to a “personality defect” (i.e., greed) which has the effect of saying that this is not really their fault. They are still good people who have occasional lapses.

But the fact is that they are going to be losing again and again and again — interspersed by wins sometimes. Every gambler goes through this. Even winning ones. It isn’t that you’re greedy. It’s that you’re playing a game with ups and downs.

Perhaps they use the term because they are poor losers. While nobody likes to lose, getting really, really upset about it probably suggests you should consider not gambling. Knowing you’re going to get upset over and over again because that’s the nature of the game isn’t the healthiest way to lead your life.

Most video poker players have some stories they like to tell about a few times they really got lucky. Perhaps it was three royals in one week in 2017. Maybe it was being dealt aces with a kicker twice on Ten Play at such and such casino in 2022. Or winning that car in a drawing with only three tickets in the drum while some players had thousands of tickets. My own Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography tells of a number of those situations that happened to me.

Some players are proud of a large jackpot — never mind how bad of a game they were playing. Untold dozens of students have come up to me in my classes showing me a picture of a royal flush on their cell phone. Frequently they would say something like, “It’s a game you would say I never should have been playing, but . . .”

If they said that, I would back off. They already know that I’m a stickler for only playing when you have the advantage. I don’t need to tell them again. They’re proud of their $4,000 jackpot and I tell them congratulations and change the subject.

Although the proper strategy varies a little between good pay schedules and bad pay schedules, being dealt a premium hand is just as easy on all pay schedules (assuming a 52-card deck and a standard format game.) Ending up with a score for the day of +$3,500 (as might be the case if you hit a $4,000 jackpot while playing with a good pay schedule) doesn’t feel noticeably different than ending the day with a score of +$3,200 (as might be the case playing with a poor pay schedule.)

Similarly, when the losing days come (which they will — guaranteed), losing $2,300 in a day doesn’t feel that much worse than “only” losing $1,900. At the end of the year, though, the player playing the good games might be ahead $20,000 or so while the player playing the same amount, with the same skill on lesser games might be down that much or more. It definitely adds up.

I start from the presumption that lucky hits are, well, lucky. And random. If our goal is to get lucky while playing good games, let’s look at ways to increase the odds of that happening.

1. Limit yourself to only playing good games. If the game, plus benefits from the slot club, mailers, promotions, etc., doesn’t exceed 100% in total return, don’t play. PERIOD. NO EXCEPTIONS.

You might find there are no such games in the casino closest to you. Okay. Don’t play there. 

Some of you will find this rule too restrictive. So be it. You’re doomed to being a long-term losing player, albeit with some lucky jackpots along the way. That might be acceptable to you — given the pleasure you receive from gambling. Or maybe you greatly value the casino freebies you receive. In any case, let’s continue our discussion for those of you who are still interested.

2. Become knowledgeable about several games and learn as much as you can about the slot club at every casino you frequent. At the five different casinos I play the most hours, I play five separate games. And these are not exactly the same games and casinos that I played a couple of years ago. Casinos add and subtract games and change the slot club and promotions. If you’re a stickler for playing only one variety of video poker, you’re limiting your options.  It’s difficult to become profitable if you’re committed to only playing one particular game at one particular casino.

3. Play a lot. Obviously, a player who only plays 10 hours a year won’t hit as many juicy jackpots as a player to plays 100 hours a year — or 1,000. And since you’re limiting yourself to games where you have the advantage, for the most part, the more you play the more money you make. There will definitely be swings up and down, but if you can survive them, you’ll do fine.

4. Network with other competent players. The more players who know and like you, the more likely someone will share something that will benefit you. This is a two-way street, of course. You have to be willing to share something you discover with someone who has helped you. 

Three of my current “best plays” were brought to me by someone else. One wanted a percentage (which I agreed to, after negotiation), one did it for free because I gave him a tip a few years ago, and the third is a host — whom I take care of.

5. Scout. You never know when your current plays will dry up. Everything ends after a while. If you’re winning, that might speed up the rate at which the games are removed. That’s just the way it works. If you find a play in another gambling community, check out the other casinos in that community every time. 

6. Consider more games than just video poker. There are many games in a casino that are beatable. (You might want to listen to the archives of Gambling with an Edge. We ran that podcast for more than 10 years. There were a lot of different games discussed.) While doing the podcast, I thought about sports betting — but decided advantage slots was a game I’d be better at — so I’ve spent hundreds of hours learning about that – and am continuing to learn more. I may change games after a while.

7. Build your bankroll. Gambling is one of those activities where it takes money to make money. Do this any way you legally can. One of the biggest ways to do this is to be very frugal and save whatever you can. If your goal is eventually to win big in the casino, you need to delay current gratification. Keep your car a few years longer than you otherwise might. Don’t be getting the latest and greatest anything. It’ll be cheaper in a few years. Treat your possessions with care and resell them on Craig’s list when you’re through with them. 

If you have a spouse or other full-time partner, it helps if you’re on the same page about this. After I became single in 2012 and eventually began considering who else to connect with, fiscal responsibility was high on my list of “requirements.” 

8. Don’t be shy. Sometimes you’ll find a game that is slightly beyond your bankroll. (Important caveat: We’re limiting this discussion to games where you have the advantage.) It might make sense to commit 10% of your bankroll, or so, to taking a pot shot on this game. If it works, you’re set. If it doesn’t, you still have 90% of your bankroll to keep going.
   
9. Know you’re going to lose sometimes. That’s part of the gambling game. Losing streaks end eventually. If you lose too much of your bankroll, it will make sense to play for lower stakes. If every losing session rips at your soul, you’re in the wrong profession. Losing on good games is NOT a reason to switch to bad games.

Although I’ve discussed this subject many times over the years, I think I’ve got some additional things to say about it that I haven’t written before. In this discussion, I want to include quitting for the day, and the difference in changing machines between video poker and slot machines.

I’ll cover video poker machines first.

1. The primary reason to quit a machine is I’ve reached my objective. As I write this, South Point gives a free spin for $1,500 coin-in several days a week. That is, once you reach $1,500 coin-in, you go to a promotional kiosk and hit a button to claim your prize, averaging about $25. If I decide to be playing there that day, I’m not going to quit before I reach that goal — although there may be a reason to change a machine, which I’ll discuss later. 

When I play at Caesars properties around the country, they give you 10,000 Tier Credits (TCs) as a bonus when you accumulate 5,000 TCs or more in a day. (This is $50,000 coin-in for most video poker. At some casinos it requires more than $10 coin-into get a TC on their loosest games.) TCs are worth a little, but not much. Still, getting the bonus is worth something and I rarely stop before I reach that level.

Sometimes casinos will have a point multiplier of some sort with a limit. If the game is worth playing, it’s usually worth playing for the maximum. Here I’m speaking for myself only. If the multiplier tops out at $25,000 coin-in and you’re a single-line quarter player, you’re not going to be able to get to the max.

Sometimes casinos have the multiplier only between certain hours. If the multiplier ends at midnight, for example, I’m usually not playing after that. These multipliers can be valuable, and I’m usually playing games that are negative without the multipliers — so playing without multipliers or other promotion isn’t something I do.

Every casino has some sort of system where if you play a certain amount of coin-in you get a level of benefits. These programs are not always explicit, but with experience and talking to other players who play games similar to what I play, I can usually get an idea. I learn, for example, that if I play xxx amount per day or per trip, I’ll get better mailers in the future than if I play less than that.

Sometimes I’m playing a progressive where the royal is quite a bit above 4,000 coins. If somebody hits the royal (sometimes me — but it’s usually another player), I’m off of the machine.

Sometimes there’s an external ending point. For example, I might have a dinner date with Bonnie, or maybe I have some other appointment. That provides another stopping point.

You’ve probably noticed a common theme here. I’m in the casino for a reason. I’m not there to lose and I’m not there just to kill time.

2. Sometimes I’ll want to change machines but still keep playing for the day. This could be because the machine has a sticky button or some other glitch, perhaps the chair is too high or too low, maybe a smoker or Chatty Cathy just sat down next to me. In these situations, if another machine is available without these difficulties, I’ll move.

Note that my score is not on this list. Whether I’m up or down two royals is not a reason to change machines. I’m looking forwards, not backwards.

3. Sometimes I’ll just need to take a break. Perhaps I’m tired or maybe I’ve made a misplay. My reputation is that I play like a machine and never make a mistake. The reality is much different than that. At age 77, I make far more mistakes than I did 25 years ago. That’s the sad truth of aging. 

On a long play, if I don’t get up and stretch periodically, I’ll really feel it the next day. So, I take breaks periodically.

4. There are video poker games with very short plays. I don’t usually vulture Ultimate X machines, but sometimes a positive one is visible as I walk by. Depending on which version of Ultimate X we’re talking about, this could be a one-hand play. I make it and then move on. If it’s just one hand, I usually don’t even insert my player card. In general, Ultimate X vultures are not profitable to the casino and some casinos use that as a reason to kick you out.

5. Changing slot machines is very different than changing video poker machines. Slot machines are a smart play only a small percentage of the time — and usually the hitting of a certain bonus round signals the end of positivity. It could be that the machine, like the hypothetical Red Bob machine I discussed a month or so ago, has a Mini, and Minor, and a Major meter. If I’m playing until the Minor meter goes off (because the meter is higher than the minimum acceptable for a play,) and if the Mini or the Major hit before the Minor goes off, that’s just great, but I keep playing. Now if I need a break, perhaps to visit the restroom, I pay a floor person to watch the machine because if I don’t, another advantage slot player will move in and play, and I won’t get the machine back.

Sometimes two meters are slightly too low to be a play by themselves, but the combination is high enough. Then I’ll play until either one of them go off. If the other one hasn’t become high enough to be an independent play, I’ll leave.

Unlike video poker, in slots, whether there is a point multiplier today or not usually doesn’t affect when I quit. The multiplier may add another half-percent or so, which is nice, but I’m playing a game when it returns 105% or more and at that point the slot club is irrelevant. I may very slightly lower my strike numbers during a multiplier day, but usually not.

You are one of the winners in a casino drawing. This time, there were actually eleven winners. Ten of you will get $500 and one of you will get $10,000. All prizes are in cash.

Nine people have already made their selections — and all have picked $500 — many of them showing their disappointment. There are only two cards left. One for $500 and one for $10,000. You know the other winner and he leans over and asks if you want to make a save.

“What do you have in mind?” you ask.

“The guy who wins the big prize gives the other guy $3,000,” comes the reply.

So. Do you make this deal? 

There are lots of different ways the save could have been structured. Through the years, I’ve been in this situation perhaps a dozen times. Sometimes I’ve taken the deal and sometimes I haven’t. Sometimes I’ve been the one suggesting the split. I’ve also witnessed others make this type of deal dozens of more times. Today I want to discuss what would make me say yes and what would make me say no.

Saves in general are a way to lower variance without affecting your expected win — this time changing the prize structure from $10,000 – $500, to $7,000 – $3,500. This is a preferable split to most players. But you need to be careful. 

Here we’re assuming there are two players with equal chances. Tournament poker players sometimes use a so-called “Independent Chip Model” to deal with any number of players, each with different chip stacks. That’s way beyond what we’re discussing today. 

First of all, do I trust the other guy? If the answer is no, I’ll decline the deal. If I’ve heard anything suggesting he’s not honorable, that’s a showstopper. A situation where I pay him $3,000 half the time but he reneges the other half is a lousy position to be in. If I’ve never seen this guy before, my default reaction is not to split. 

Second, what about taxes? The one who collects $10,000 is going to receive a Form 1099 from the casino for that amount, meaning the IRS is going to want its share. Possibly the $500 winner will receive a 1099 too, depending on the casino. In today’s discussion, we’ll ignore whether the $500 winner will receive a 1099 from the casino.

The two most-common ways to handle taxes are for the winner to eat them all, or for the winner issue his own Form 1099 to the other guy. I can live with it either way, but I need to know in advance. 

Lastly, and this isn’t always possible, I want a witness we both know and trust. If this is a weekly drawing at a local casino and both of us regularly enter the drawing, there are likely several others we know and trust to be a witness. If this is a drawing at a casino where neither of us have won before, finding that trusted third party will be tougher. One or both of you may know nobody else there. In this situation, I probably won’t know the other winner either and so my solution would be to skip the save.

There will not be time for a written agreement — signed and notarized. You’re going to have to go with a handshake deal. (Whether there’s a physical handshake or not is immaterial to the agreement between you being valid — but one or both of you might feel better if you actually do it.) 

One time I got burned on this. The other guy’s wife got involved after the fact and vetoed the deal. She was adamant and a big scene in the casino would have had bad repercussions. I choose to believe that the guy made an honorable agreement and his wife came in and interfered. It’s possible, I suppose, that they regularly pull this as a sort of scam. Two years later the same guy invited me to split, and I declined.

That’s it. Congratulations on making it this far in the drawing! Hopefully, whether you’ve agreed to a split or not, you win the big prize!

I’ve been playing video poker for 30 years, and by any measure have been quite successful at it. Prior to this gambling game, I tried very hard to become successful at several other gambling games — specifically poker, backgammon, bridge, and blackjack.

I’ve been pondering recently as to why I became successful at this one specific game and not the others. Today I’m going to compare my results at video poker with my non-success at backgammon — which is the gambling game I tried hardest and longest before I gave up.

A factor in winning at any gambling game is one’s intelligence — both IQ and the ability to apply that intelligence to addressing the many aspects of successful gambling. It’s difficult for me to talk about my own intelligence without having some people conclude I’m full of myself and/or others conclude I’m being overly modest. But I’m convinced it’s a big part of the reason for my results in both games.

Video poker is a relatively easy game compared to other gambling games. When I learned the game, I had to create my own strategies, or at least perfect strategies published by others. When I had a strategy, I needed to execute it competently over and over again. Usually this meant memorization, but sometimes I’d bring some sort of “cheat sheet” strategy card, especially if it was going to be a short-term play where it would not make sense to take the time to memorize the game completely.

I needed to evaluate how much a game is worth, and how much the slot club, promotions, and other benefits slots were worth. Of these, probably evaluating and analyzing promotions was the most difficult. Having a working knowledge of probability and statistics helped here.

By the luck of the draw, I “grew up” in video poker right as computerized programs were becoming available to the public. Had I started five years earlier, the problems of creating a strategy and figuring out how much a game is worth would have been beyond my capabilities. Players starting today are able to get a strategy for most video poker games for free from www.wizardofodds.com but casinos aren’t offering as many good opportunities as they used to.

I’m not sure why, but using commercially available software in the 90s, I was able to create and execute accurate video poker strategies better than most other players. I attribute that to intelligence, basic mathematical ability, and the willingness to put in the hours necessary for success. Also, looking at five cards and immediately seeing the various possibilities for straights, flushes, straight flushes, etc., comes easier to me than others. I never appreciated this until I discovered when I was teaching that this is not easy for many players.

Also by the luck of the draw, I grew up with video poker in an era when casinos were giving away the store to video poker players. Not intentionally, of course, but slot directors generally didn’t understand the mathematics of video poker nearly as well as the best players did. All competent video poker players had to do was “Repeat Until Rich,” which is the name of a book (on blackjack success) by Josh Axelrad.

Backgammon, which I played for 20 years from 1974 to 1994, was a totally different situation for me. Computer software wasn’t available yet, and the way to learn the game was to read books and roll out positions over and over again until you understood them. I certainly learned from playing and watching others, but that is a complicated and potentially expensive way to learn.

Backgammon has a zillion different possible positions. Even long-time players regularly come across positions they’ve never studied before. Or maybe it’s the same position, but last time you studied playing a five and a three, and this time the roll is a six and a one. The correct play on most rolls from most positions is fairly obvious to competent players — but some rolls require you to select among different good positions, or perhaps choose the least bad among several not-so-good positions.

No player has studied every position — or even seen every position. During a game, you have to make the best decisions you can. Raw intelligence plays a big part in this, because there are a lot of elements to consider, both offensive and defensive. After a lot of study, I was pretty good at this — but there were many players who were better. I concluded they were brighter than I was.

I did “grow up” in backgammon at a fortunate time. The game was popular in the early 1970s and played by celebrities. The game was played at the Playboy Mansion, and to a young man in his mid-20s at the time, that was pretty interesting. The game was played at discos, and I took dance lessons and obtained a suitable wardrobe to fit in there. For the most part, the players in discos took the game much more casually than I did, and my skills were such that I could clean up in that environment — and meet plenty of ladies who liked being with guys who could dance. What a life!

But that environment ended in the late 1970s. Discos closed and the days of making easy money gambling against non-professional players were over. There were enough better players than I was (including brains, knowledge, and whatever else) that I eventually went bankrupt and had to go get a job.

While I worked my way back into modest backgammon success, I never reached the highest level, no matter how hard I studied.

Today, there are a number of computerized programs available for backgammon players, with the best one called Extreme Gammon (XG.) With the same innate intelligence, players using XG for six months can get as good as I got in 20 years of play.

Today gambling at backgammon is fairly rare. It’s still done, of course, especially while backgammon tournaments are taking place, but today a “PR rating” is generated in tournaments comparing a player’s actual play with the play of XG. A player with a rating of 3.0 (world class) will have a very difficult time getting a game against players with ratings of 10 (intermediate level). Years ago, such matches were possible because nobody knew how good other players were. Today they do.

I know that I could return to that game and get as good as I was 30 years ago, but 30 years ago I was an intermediate player! And there are players who could beat me 30 years ago who’ve been playing and studying continuously since then. They could beat me then and they’ve only gotten better since. I’d have no chance.

Basically, starting over again, at age 77, is not a formula for success. And if I busted my ass for several years and got my average PR rating down to 5 or so, I still couldn’t make enough money to support myself because games against lesser players simply aren’t regularly available.