Category: Advanced Strategy

Today we continue our look at casino drawings. If you want to catch up and read last week’s blog, I’ll wait until you come back.

You usually have to plan for a drawing. While it is possible that you’re automatically entered into a drawing and your prizes are sent to you in the mail, the far more typical way is that you need to show up at the casino and activate your tickets at a kiosk. You then need to stick around until the drawing is held and, if you’re lucky enough to be drawn, claim your prize within some relatively short period of time.

This means that if you’re going to compete in one drawing at 7 p.m. on a given night, you can’t be at another drawing as well. So you need to pick and choose where you have the best chance.

It’s not trivial to get to a casino, park, and deal with the crowds in order to win at a drawing. Today, if I don’t have an expected win of at least $250 at a drawing, I won’t be showing up. Your number might be different from mine, but financially it rarely makes sense to show up at a drawing when you only have one ticket in the drum. Yes, it only takes one ticket to win, but that’s looking at “possibilities,” not “probabilities.” I actually look one more layer deep. I look at the probability of being called and the average size win.

In general, the more tickets you have in the drum, the better your chances of winning. If you’re a $5 player, you have a significantly better chance of winning than if you’re a 25¢ or $1 player. If you’re a 5¢ player, five coins at a time, you basically have no chance at all.

It’s usually not a good idea to play a negative game in order to get drawing tickets. Having an expected loss of $1,000 in order to have a 10% chance of winning $500 in a drawing doesn’t make financial sense.

It can make sense to play a negative game if it’s “close.” Playing 99.73% NSU Deuces Wild with a 0.20% slot club is a negative game. A drawing can make up the shortfall. If mailers and comps are given to you in addition to the 0.20% slot club, then this situation was probably slightly positive to start with. 

If you’re going to be at a drawing, and Thursday is a 10x drawing ticket day, make sure you play on Thursday. Ticket multiplier days are a way for a casino to present something worthwhile to players looking for an edge and it doesn’t cost the casino a dime. It actually makes money for the casino because of the extra play generated on that day. The casino has already budgeted the drawing, say $20,000, and it largely doesn’t care which of the players win the money. Drawing ticket multipliers shift the odds from the players who don’t play on that day to those who do.

Don’t win drawings at the same casino too often. This is the “voice of experience” talking and it applies to players who play for relatively large stakes compared to most of the other people in the drawings. At small casinos, where the same people show up for drawings every week, it gets noticed if that one guy seems to win all the time. Players will complain, and when that happens, the casino will come up with a solution that the winning player doesn’t like. So if you win, take a month off or so. 

Read the rules carefully. If it’s the same rules for every drawing, probably most of the kinks have been worked out of them. But if they modify the rules every time, mistakes can be made. Sometimes point multipliers are in effect from 3 a.m. to 2:59 a.m., but ticket multipliers are in effect midnight to midnight. Double dipping might be possible! And they might have a senior’s drawing on Tuesday and a “for everybody” drawing on Friday, and, if you’re old enough, your play can count for both drawings. There might be limits to consider.

It’s possible that for the amount you play, winning a drawing is essentially a zillion to one longshot. If that’s the case, don’t even try. Concentrate on other ways to win in the casino — or in life.

Bonnie and I regularly played at an out-of-town Caesars property where part of the monthly mailer was $200 in resort credit apiece. If we played our usual amount, our host would pick up food charges. So that left the resort credit to be spent at gift shops. They had a women’s store, a men’s store, and a jewelry store, in addition to a typical small gift shop where you could get various sundries. 

Generally speaking, you don’t expect casino gift shops to compete on price. At the men’s store, I was told that if I paid with cash or credit card, I’d get a 35% discount. If I used Reward Credits, I’d get a 20% discount. And if I charged to my room, I’d get no discount. Part of the deal with the $200 resort credit was that you had to charge it to your room. 

The resort credits weren’t worth anywhere near face value to us — but they were obviously worth something and made the play worth more to me than if I didn’t get to spend them. So how much are they worth?

No gift shop is worth the same amount to every player. I would wear a few of the shirts sold by this particular men’s store — but not all that many. A younger man — or a man whose taste is different from mine — might find he liked a much larger percentage of the inventory than I do. Bonnie is usually with me on these trips — and she can usually find something in one of the gift shops. If I tell her she has $400 to spend at such and such a selection of stores, she’ll find at least that much for one of us — or for one of our relatives or friends.

If I were thinking a $200 gift shop award might be worth $100, I asked myself, “Would I pay $100 in cash to get that $200 gift shop award?” For me, the answer was, ‘No.’ But I might pay $50 in cash. So, I figured that’s what the award was worth. 

I find it useful to turn this into a percentage — so I can add it into the mix along with the return on the game, the slot club, and other such awards. If I regularly played $10,000 and they gave me this award worth $50 to me, the award would be worth 0.5%. If I played $100,000 (which is closer to what I actually play), the award is worth 0.05%.

Frankly, something worth 0.05% would rarely be enough to tip the play-or-not-play scales into positive territory. Maybe if a play were already worth 100.3%, which is about the minimum I’ll play, I’ll make a play I might otherwise pass on. But that exact circumstance rarely happens.

It turns out that I find such awards most valuable for “keeping Bonnie happy” reasons. 

Bonnie and I keep our finances separate. If I win or lose $40,000 on a trip, it basically doesn’t affect her finances at all. But if I have the advantage on the play, and I can play on her card as well as mine, it’s good for her to make the trip with me, even if there is not much for her to do once she’s there.

So, gift shop awards, at least one nice dinner per trip, free movies in the room, and excursions to sight-seeing places are all part of what we do while we’re there. Sometimes I give her half of my win in a drawing. She’s 80 years old, I’m 77, and staying happy together is a significant part of our game plan. If there is suitable music, we dance for a few hours. If we earn cruises, she gets a big say in where we go. Bonnie’s generally a good sport about coming with me when I take these “business trips,” I want her to look forward to our time together. If getting to go shopping brings a smile to her face, I’m all for it.

The following incident happened while a friend of mine was playing slots, but there’s enough in common to gambling at video poker that I think it’s worth discussing.

“John” was scouting a casino in Las Vegas looking for slot machines in positive conditions. There are many, many slot machines that are sometimes positive — but most of the time, on each of these machines, the house has the advantage. Most players, however, are not aware of when the game is positive or not and simply play the game, quitting whenever they feel like it. Sometimes they quit when the game is positive, and then when the next knowledgeable player comes by, that player typically sits down to play it off. 

John has “strike numbers” on perhaps 20-30 different slot machine titles. That’s nowhere near all or even most of the beatable machines, but still, it’s more than most players know.

He found a game for $25 a play that he thought might be positive. This is a much larger game than usual for slot players. Most players can’t afford to play this game, but the size of the game was not a showstopper to him. He shifted the denomination on the machine so that it showed the $10-per-play game and consulted his notes. The $10-per-play game was nowhere near a positive play at the moment, and other pros seeking games would walk right by. He wanted time to think about this situation without drawing attention to the game.

His notes said that the game was a play when a certain meter was at 15 or higher — and sure enough this meter was at 16. So, it was a play. His notes also said the game is highly volatile. He knew that on a volatile $25 game, he could easily win or lose several thousand dollars. If he played this game in this situation several dozen times, he figured he’d make a sizeable profit. But there was no way to tell at the outset whether this time would be positive or negative.

He had $3,500 on him. He figured that would cover the swings most of the time. He wouldn’t likely run out of money, but if he did there were people he could call. He didn’t like making these calls — partly because that meant others would have the right to call him when they ran out. He trusted himself to run out of money very rarely, but some of the people he called wouldn’t have the same discipline. But if he asked for help, he had to be prepared to give help to others in the future. He didn’t want to open that door.

He actually called me to ask my opinion. John and I respect each other’s knowledge and have helped each other out occasionally. I know him well, know how he handles swings, and I thought he should go for it. I wasn’t in Vegas at the time, and he was, so there was no way I could get money to him if he ended up needing some.

He was just about to start when another pro, “Peter,” approached him and asked if he were going to play the $25 game. John knew Peter vaguely. He’d seen him checking out machines but wasn’t sure how knowledgeable he was.

John said yes. He thought it was a good play and he had the bankroll to play it. Peter said he had the bankroll too, but wasn’t in the mood to risk his daily score on such a volatile play.

Peter, it seems, had been losing recently and was sort of gun shy. He didn’t trust his own judgment, so he didn’t want to play such a big game. He could likely find a sizeable number of smaller games where he could increase his bankroll by dribs and drabs rather than making a big jump one way or the other all at once.

Peter said he had a few thousand dollars on him and suggested they partner up for this one game. John thought about this. It had some positive aspects to it. It essentially guaranteed he wouldn’t run out of money. 

At the same time, John had never done business with Peter before. Was he trustworthy? Who was going to eat the W-2G if there was one? Peter was friendly now, but what if Peter was the one playing when the bonus round hit and denied making a deal? So John passed and played it by himself. Peter wished him luck and left.

As it happened, the bonus round went off rather quickly and John ended up making $900. This was a nice result, but it certainly didn’t have to be that way.

I want to look at Peter’s reaction to this. Peter had actually seen the game first and passed on it. He had the financial bankroll — but not the emotional bankroll — to play the game. So, I believe he was right to pass.

Everybody has his own emotional bankroll. Respecting your bankroll parameters, both financial and emotional, is critical to long term success at gambling. I also think that Peter suggesting they be partners was a move that made sense for him. This would lower the swings and lower the risk. So now it might have been within his comfort zone. 

It couldn’t have been too much of a surprise for Peter that John turned down his offer to partner up. That’s probably the usual result. But you don’t know unless you try. 

All in all, the situation was well played by both men.