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A Look at: “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk”

Bob Dancer

Billy Walters, a legendary sports gambler, finally writes an autobiography. For those who wish to share his success at betting football and other sports, he gives the “from 30,000 feet view” of his secret sauce. He prints the factors his computer programmers take into consideration, but you’re going to have to do your own analysis and come up with your own numbers. 

Although he ended up wildly rich and successful, his life didn’t start out that way and it was a very bumpy ride. He was raised in rural Kentucky by his grandmother, and he started gambling at a very young age. He presents himself as a degenerate gambler and alcoholic going through several dozen boom-and-bust cycles until he finally got his ducks in a row. He is not at all shy about recounting his many, many failures along his road to success.

One of his “secrets” is that he performs very well under pressure — and is not afraid to go broke if he calculates the odds being in his favor. He is a very good golfer, but even better at sizing up his opponents. Hustling at pool and golf taught him many secrets for getting money out of bookies. He is very good at applying what he has learned in one circumstance and applying it in another.

The Federal Government tried to convict him numerous times throughout his life. He was able to beat all the raps — except the last one, where he was convicted for insider trading. He maintains his innocence and blames Phil Mickelson for his conviction. Walters contends that if Mickelson had testified at Walters’ trial and simply told the truth, Walters would never have been convicted.

Although Walters has nothing nice to say about Mickelson (or Steve Wynn, for that matter), this is not a sour grapes book. He did his time, and now is helping others who do not have his financial resources to beat the prison system. Still, this is just one side of it. I’m pretty sure Mickelson would have a very different take on what went down.

Although there are dozens of specific stories in this book, Walters is not a particularly good storyteller. Many of his adventures would make a good plot for a thriller, but Walters recounts the stories in a rather matter-of-fact manner.  Billy Walters was one of those gamblers that Richard and I lusted over having on our Gambling with an Edge podcast. But Walters was in prison for much of the GWAE run and didn’t do many interviews. So, we never got him on the show. Now Walters is doing more interviews promoting this book than he ever did previously.

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Lord Have Mercy

How Special Is It?

More than thirty years ago, country music artist Travis Tritt recorded a song called “Lord Have Mercy on the Working Man.” The song is about the social injustices suffered by blue-collar workers.

One of the lines in the song is, “Why’s the rich man busy dancing while the poor man pays the band?” Today I’d like to apply that line to the gambling situation.

In gambling, it’s not so much the rich man versus the poor man, but rather the knowledgeable player versus the rest of the gamblers. While knowledgeable players sometimes have money, earning money in a casino and being wealthy are not the same thing at all. Casinos make most of their money off of well-heeled gamblers who buck the odds and lose.

Video poker is not a game where the losing players give money to the winning players. At least not directly. Indirectly, however, casinos take money from the losing players, give that money to the winning players, and hold out a percentage of that money for expenses and profit.

My goal in a casino is to be the player who is “busy dancing,” both literally and figuratively, while the losing players end up paying for my ride. I want to enjoy winning, dining, hotel rooms, cruises, and various other goodies while actually accumulating money during the process. It doesn’t always work out that way, of course, but that’s my goal.

Obviously, only a relatively few players manage to do this over time. Casinos need to make money overall in order to stay in business. But if losing players lose enough, that leaves enough for the knowledgeable players to enjoy the fruits of the game while still keeping the casinos afloat.

There are problem gamblers whose addiction causes considerable pain and hardship for their families. While I know these people exist, and their losing contributes to the money from which I’m paid, I largely ignore this aspect of gambling. I don’t know anything I can do to ease this problem.

I’ve been questioned periodically whether or not I feel guilty letting others pay for my good times, and my answer is always, “No.” I believe that players, problem gamblers aside, have a choice as to whether or not they gamble. 

Players know that overall, casinos win. Not from every player. Not all the time. But most players realize the odds are stacked against them. Some of us believe we have a system that works. Some of us are correct in this belief. Most aren’t.

Many players who wish to join the ones receiving these benefits can join the ranks by studying. Not everybody is up to learning how to play well, but many are. Even if you are intellectually capable of learning how to play well, it takes effort and discipline — and many aren’t up to that.

For me personally, I’ve tried backgammon, blackjack, poker, and sports betting. I’ve become convinced that I don’t have what it takes to succeed in those games — except sometimes when lucrative promotions are in effect. For whatever reason, I can do it in video poker and can’t do it in the other games. 

Each person has to work out which game, if any, is his/her path to gambling success. If you can do it— great. If you can’t, you are going to be a person who donates money to more successful gamblers. If that idea is offensive to you, then your choices are to get better at one of these games, quit gambling altogether, or learn to live with big losses in the casinos.

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Powering Through

Bob Dancer

After our cruise, Bonnie and I flew from Athens, Greece to Atlanta (via Washington DC) on October 1. Since Atlanta is much closer to Harrah’s Cherokee than Las Vegas is, we decided before the trip that we’d stop in Cherokee for three days and then fly on home.

We get mailers from Cherokee, and there are other promotions, and suffice it to say that I felt the odds were in our favor. The only drawback was that we hadn’t been home in more than a month. 

After a 25-hour travel day, we finally reached Cherokee — exhausted. Our vacation wasn’t turning out to be so relaxing. And our physical ailments were much more severe than they were when we booked the trip.

On Monday morning, October 2, I went to the casino to play. I had some sort of a head cold and wasn’t feeling very perky, but still, I can play competent NSU Deuces Wild pretty automatically. So, I powered through the play, losing $6,000 the first day. (That’s pretty much what it’s like playing Deuces Wild when you connect on neither a royal nor a set of four deuces.)

We both went to sleep fairly early Monday night, both because jet lag still affected us and, though my cold wasn’t very severe, it was still there.

Tuesday and Wednesday were much the same. We didn’t feel very well, but I powered through the play. I lost both days. This side trip to Cherokee turned out to be a loser, offsetting most of what we were ahead during our time there before the cruise. Still, the fact that my actual score turned out negative this time doesn’t mean I shouldn’t have gone.

Another long travel day and we got home Wednesday night. We both grabbed a quick bite, went to bed, and would deal with everything else the following day. Including getting ready for our next trip. 

Starting Saturday morning, just a few days later, we were booked into a Seven Stars event in Reno. As I went to bed Wednesday, I didn’t even want to think about Reno. I just wanted to sleep.

Thursday morning, I felt much better than I had in Cherokee. Bonnie had a sore throat and other symptoms. We decided we should take Covid tests. Which we did, and we both tested positive. 

My medical insurance has a 24-hour “Senior Help Line.” I called in, saying basically, “I tested positive on a home Covid test. Now what?”

I was asked about specific symptoms, including most which I knew about and one, mental confusion, which I hadn’t realized was a symptom. I was told to isolate, drink a lot of liquids, and treat it like a common cold. Over the counter cough syrups may or may not help. For most of us who’ve had the Covid vaccines and boosters, which includes Bonnie and me, that’s sufficient. If the symptoms significantly worsen or remain for more than a week, then I should get medical treatment. I shouldn’t be contagious after the fourth day.

I figured we had it since Monday and would no longer be contagious by Saturday. Reno was theoretically still on the table. It was a trip where we had a pretty sizeable edge and I’m very good at powering through these kinds of plays. 

Then I looked at the strategy of the game I would be playing there. It was a game that I had 100% mastered when we played there six weeks ago. I figured I’d be up to that level again with a ten to fifteen minutes review. I’ve been putting accurate video poker strategies into my short-term memory for more than two decades. It’s part of my process and I’m good at it.

This time, though, it was different. I looked at this strategy uncomprehendingly. It was way more complicated than I wanted to deal with. This was mental confusion. It was now I realized that I was sicker than I thought I was. I told Bonnie that what I thought was best was that instead of powering through, we should power down and skip Reno this weekend. She sighed and said, “Thank you very much.” Bonnie lets me make the decisions on gambling and she would have followed my lead. But clearly, we were both feeling poorly and, in our saner moments, it was clear we should stay home.

So, I texted my host and told him we were staying home because of Covid. 

I’m surprised it took me so long to make the decision to not go. I try to eat healthily, but sometimes I forget that taking care of myself is more than just eating right. It includes allowing my body to recuperate when it needs to. Dragging Bonnie around when she’s not at her best is a terrible move in many ways. As positive as this play was, there will be others for me in the future. If I keep myself alive to play them.

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Spinach!

Bob Dancer

I was playing $5 NSU Deuces Wild at Harrah’s Cherokee on a recent Seven Stars trip. This casino is one of many that will not let you accumulate credits on your machine greater than $2,999.99. If I have $2,900 in credits immediately after the deal and I end up with a $100 quad or full house, the machine will “spit” out a $100 ticket and I’ll keep the $2,900 in accumulated credits. 

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It’s a Matter of Priorities

Recently in Las Vegas, there was a local pub offering a nice promotion between 1 a.m. and 8 a.m. several days a week. Not a great promo and not likely to be repeated, but I’m not interested in providing more details about it than I already have. Suffice it to say it was close enough to where I live and juicy enough that I arranged my sleep schedule so that I was there during the requisite hours most of the days it was offered. 

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How Special Is It?

How Special Is It?

In a recent blog post I wrote:

Another factor that is true for me that isn’t universally true for other players is that I have the ability to figure out and master strategies, and I enjoy doing so. Thinking about, writing about, studying, and playing video poker occupies a much larger part of my waking hours, even after about 30 years of doing this, than these things occupy in the lives of most other players.

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What Would You Do?

I had a conversation with a strong player, and he posed a series of ethical questions. He estimated that if I asked this question in a crowd of people, at least 75% of players would claim they would do the right thing in each situation. But if nobody else were around, less than 50% would actually do the right thing.

I’m not sure about his percentages, but they sound approximately right, more or less. So, let’s look at the questions.

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