Every year, the gaming industry holds its biggest show-and-tell convention of the year in Las Vegas, called the Global Gaming Expo or G2E. And every year, I go and look at what’s coming up in the near future.
Continue reading What I Saw at G2ECategory: Video Poker
I’ve Heard This One Before
In my classes, I often get out-of-town students. Whether I am teaching Quick Quads, Ultimate X, Deuces Wild, or whatever, there are often students who decided long ago that they are going to take at least one Bob Dancer class — and this is the week they’re in Vegas.
Continue reading I’ve Heard This One BeforeWhen the Time Comes
Bonnie and I were in the congregation at a memorial service for a lady we knew from square dancing who had just passed away. One of the quotations that was meaningful to the deceased was an Audrey Hepburn quotation that said, “Happy girls are the prettiest.”
Continue reading When the Time ComesWhen You’re No Longer Welcome
Let’s assume that your local casino has taken away your player’s card, meaning you can no longer receive most of the benefits from playing there. For the sake of today’s discussion, you are still allowed to play there without a card if you like. Further, assume that you insist on playing with an edge or not at all.
What do you do now?
First, sometimes you can talk your way back into being able to play with the card. Not often. But sometimes. If winning the drawings too many times was the reason for your ouster from the club, for example, perhaps agreeing to not enter certain categories of drawings will be enough. Perhaps agreeing to not play certain machines will work, or not playing on certain point multiplier days. Whatever. Being in the club is better than not being in the club if this option is possible.
If this is not possible, you need to look closely at whether there are games you ignored before that could be playable at least some of the time. The most likely candidates for this would be progressives. Sometimes a 9/5 Double Double Bonus machine (97.87% at reset) with one or more progressives can be a profitable game to play when the progressives are high enough. Not every day. Certainly not every time you check. But sometimes.
The best book on how to evaluate progressives is Frank Kneeland’s The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives. Some of the information presented in the book is dated, but I don’t know of any better source. If you can find and hook up with other pros playing progressives, perhaps they can show you the ropes.
In general, you need a bigger bankroll to play progressives than you do playing games with a 4,000-coin royal flush simply because a higher percentage of your return is in the relatively-rare royal flush. You lose much faster between royals than you do at games that start out with a higher return. In addition to the physical bankroll, you need a psychological bankroll to survive at this. Losing streaks will be longer. If you were barely scraping by financially before you got restricted, progressives are likely not a good option for you.
On the other hand, sometimes progressives get big enough that you’ll have a 2% or larger advantage while playing them. You virtually never get advantages this high playing machines without progressives.
Advantage slots are another possibility. Sometimes it has to do with progressive meters. Sometimes it is a “must hit by” progressive and the meter is very close to the maximum. Sometimes it’s looking for a certain number of a particular kind of symbol, and when you find that condition, the game is beatable. How to recognize the games that are beatable is found on several sites on the Internet. Which of these sites provide the best information is something I can’t share with you simply because this is not an avenue I have pursued.
There are players being kicked out of casinos for playing advantage slots these days. Since my face is relatively well known as a sharp machine player, I will get extra scrutiny if I play slots. And I expect my welcome will be short-lived. So, I haven’t even gone through the effort of learning which machines to play.
Particularly in Las Vegas, there are a LOT of players seeking out and playing advantage slots — which seriously reduces the likelihood of you coming across a playable game at any particular time. Success requires scouting — and sometimes being in the right place at the right time when someone leaves a machine that is in an advantageous state, but it can be done. In other locales, slot hustlers are less common, and you can do well at this.
Another option is to simply stop visiting this casino and patronize others. If you live in a place where there are a lot of casinos, this is no problem (assuming you haven’t been run off by too many of the other ones as well.) If you live in a place where there aren’t many casinos, this is tougher.
Some high limit players need to resort to playing dollar machines in order to keep playing. They have the bankroll to play higher, but they might not have the welcome or full benefits at the places that have the bigger machines. At a smaller level, some dollar players may need to resort to playing for quarters at other casinos to stay in the game.
Going the other way (meaning formerly playing quarters but being forced to play dollars at another casino in order to have an edge) doesn’t happen as frequently. Comparatively speaking, few quarter players are restricted at casinos. (It absolutely does sometimes happen, however.) If you are forced to move up in stakes, make sure you have the bankroll to do so. You can check bankroll requirements using the Video Poker for Winners software, or Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker. The products yield similar results using very different methods of analysis.
Traveling to play is another option. Players in Las Vegas can travel to several locations in California, Northern Nevada, and elsewhere if they are out of places to play at home. I’m not going to tell you to go to the XYZ casino in such-and-such a city simply because publishing the play will likely kill it. These plays are out there, but you’re going to have to scout and network to find them. Players who have developed networks with other winning players will find out about these possibilities much faster than those who are starting from scratch. Traveling takes time and is not cheap. Some players do not have the time, interest, or resources to pursue this avenue.
A final option is to give up video poker and take up bowling — or any other activity you’re interested in. Some people will not be able to find beatable games within their bankroll. When this happens, some tough decisions need to be made. Using the suggestions in this article, however, will sometimes postpone for another day having to make that decision.
Storyworthy – A Worthy Book
Most of my articles relate somehow to gambling. This one doesn’t. Today is a rave review of a book I’ve recently read that has affected me deeply. I haven’t given up on writing about gambling. Just not today.
I’m a fan of storytelling in the spirit of those told at The Moth, a storytelling group that originated in New York and now may be found in venues across the country. If you go to www.themoth.org, you’ll find an audio library that contains more than 1,000 of their best stories.
These true stories are told by old and young, male and female, native American (with all sorts of regional accents), non-native (from all over the world), with a huge variety of subjects. Some will make you laugh. Some will make you cry. Some just may get you to look at the world a little differently.
In the spirit of The Moth, Richard Munchkin, my GWAE co-host, and I have been hosting the Las Vegas StorySlam, which is a monthly get-together for the purpose of telling true stories. Our venue is changing because where we used to meet went out of business. We’re in negotiation with another theater in Las Vegas and hope to resume soon. I’ll write about it here when that happens.
Richard and I, along with many others, tell stories every month. Many of my stories relate to gambling, of course, because that’s been a large part of my life. But I’ve also told stories about a date gone wrong, a weight loss bet, a revenge story, and a college football game I attended. As a listener of stories, some of my favorites have been told by Richard – who has shared many of them on our podcast.
With this in mind, somebody recently suggested I pick up the book Storyworthy, by Matthew Dicks. At the time the book was published in 2018, Dicks had won Moth competitions some 36 times. He still competes and so that number has grown.
Clearly this is a guy who knows something about storytelling. In addition, along with his wife, he teaches storytelling workshops in Connecticut. Teaching others is a cauldron that tends to clarify your message. I looked forward to reading what Dicks had to say.
And I was blown away.
I already knew quite a bit about storytelling. I was already experienced and had received very positive feedback from others. When I practice my stories at my local Toastmasters Club, I win the “Best Speaker” ribbon more often than not. I had learned from Las Vegas’ best storytelling workshop taught by Al Jensen and George Gilbert (www.nextstagecommunications.com). I thought I was pretty knowledgeable.
I was – but I also had a lot to learn. And I had stumbled upon a good teacher.
The most valuable part of the book to me was the homework! Really! Dicks outlines an exercise he calls Homework for Life, where every day you spend five minutes and enter into an Excel spreadsheet the most interesting thing that happened to you that day. Just a line or two. But do it every day. (I confess. In the two months I’ve been doing this, I’ve skipped two days accidentally. Sometimes I’ll make more than one entry.)
What this gives you is a goldmine of possible stories! If you’re doing it honestly, your best true stories are related to what you’ve experienced in your life. This exercise records a line or two about these experiences as you go. Over time, you’ll see a snippet of an idea that you recorded in March can be combined with something that happened in July, and you’ll find a “habit” in your life that you didn’t know you had.
As I’ve modified this exercise for myself, I’ve been adding stories to the list from long ago. There were a lot of stories in my Million Dollar Video Poker. Many of those can be honed for telling in front of a live audience. The most recent story I’ve been working on happened 25 years ago with my brother. I had totally forgotten about this incident until I started writing down ideas on a regular basis. Something I did in early August of this year reminded me of what I did long ago.
Another exercise is “First Last Best Worst,” which is a brain-storming activity where you start with any subject (say drinking lemonade — or riding a bike — or cramming for a test at school — blind dates — and a whole bunch of others) and you write down whatever comes to mind as the best incidence of this, the last, the best, and the worst.
Sometimes you’ll draw a complete blank about a subject. Sometimes you’ll have two or more “best” memories about a subject. All okay. Write down what you have. On that page will be several topics for a story. Do this regularly with different starting points. You’ll have a library of possible story subjects pretty soon.
I’m not going to go through it here, but in addition to the “How do you figure out what to tell a story about?” exercises, there are a ton of how-to points for the story itself.
I know most of you won’t be into competitive storytelling. But most of us tell stories to our friends. Some have been told their stories are boring. Or pointless. Or rambling. If so, this book will enable you to improve your storytelling. And improve your life.
If you want a flavor of how this guy tells a story, go to www.youtube.com and search for “Storytelling Matthew Dicks”. In that section, listen to his “This is going to suck” story. And in the book, he dissects how he crafted that story. The story is true, but there are many ways to tell it. Why and where he added humor. Why he intentionally sped up at times and sometimes went slow. Why he “hid in plain sight” a key element to the eventual punch line. Things like that. Once you understand these things, your stories will be better.
Which is Better — W2G or Not?
The Las Vegas Advisor has a Question of the Day. These are questions sent in by readers where a bite-sized answer is sufficient. Sometimes when it’s about video poker, the LVA passes it on to me. They recently sent me a question which is printed below. While the answer isn’t difficult, there are a lot of things to discuss — depending on how advanced the reader is. Since it was more blog-length rather than QOD-length, I decided to answer the question here.
It begins with the question:
I go to my local riverboat casino and play bonus poker video poker. I do not play professional so I would have to pay any W2G that I would get. My question is if I include a 30% tax on the royal flush payout at the dollar machine ($4,000 royal), am I better off playing a 99.17% pay dollar machine or a 96.87% quarter machine where the royals will not be taxed. I would think you need to take the percent of the 99.17% that is the royal payout and multiply that by .7 and add it back in to see if it is better than the 96.87%. Is that correct and what is the percent of the 99.17% that is the royal payout?
For those of you who aren’t familiar with Bonus Poker payouts, the 99.17% version pays 40 for the full house and the 96.87% version pays 30 for the full house. The games are otherwise identical and the correct strategies for both games are essentially identical.
Most video poker software products will tell you that you’ll get a royal flush on Bonus Poker every 40,233 hands. To make this simpler to work with, I’m going to assume this number is exactly 40,000. It will not affect the conclusion.
Playing for dollars, every 40,000 hands (which means $200,000 coin-in) you have to pay $1,200 in taxes (which is 30% of $4,000) which I can treat differently because I file as a professional. If you divide $1,200 by $200,000, you come up with 0.6%. This makes the post-tax 8/5 Bonus Poker worth 98.57%, which is quite a bit higher than 96.87%.
So, obviously, since 98.57% is better than 96.87%, that proves playing for dollars and paying the taxes is the better play. Except there are more things to consider.
First of all, are you playing the same number of hands or the same amount in dollars? It takes the same amount of time to play $50,000 at quarters as it does to play $200,000 at dollars. Your expected loss at dollars is 0.0143 * $200,000 (which equals $2,860) while playing $50,000 at quarters will cost you 0.0313 * $50,000 (which equals $1,565).
Looked at this way, playing quarters is the “better” (meaning “less bad”) play.
(Is it impossibly rude to suggest that staying out of that casino is better than either of these plays?)
We haven’t discussed the slot club. Do you get money in the mail? Do you earn free play from your points? It’s possible that dollars could still be the cheaper play. Without discussing the slot club benefits, it’s impossible to make a final determination.
Another possibility is to play quarter single coins! Playing one quarter at a time is only worth 95.6329%, but in same time it takes you to play $200,000 at dollars or $50,000 at max-coin quarters, you’re only risking $10,000 at single-line quarters. That will make your expected loss $437, which is considerably “less bad” than either of the previous two expected losses.
Playing single coin, however, on those rare occasions you hit the royal flush, you’ll collect a lousy $62.50 instead of the $1,000 you’d get from a max-coin quarter royal, or $250 instead of the $2,800 you’d get from the after-tax max-coin dollar royal. If somebody sees what you did, they’ll tell you what an idiot you are for not betting max-coin and collecting the full royal. Never mind that your move makes financial sense. For some people, they’ll feel so bad at missing out on the max-coin royal that they are in misery, even though they just hit a royal flush.
I tell you, playing single coin isn’t for the weak at heart!
So, looking at these options, how would I boil it down to one choice? That is, what would I do were I to face these exact circumstances?
My answer is simple. I wouldn’t play at all. If the slot club doesn’t pay enough to make up for the shortfalls we’ve listed here, I’m not even frequenting this casino. Going into a casino knowing I can’t be a long-term winner is against my religion.
Author’s note: The basic premise of this QOD and the answer is seriously flawed, but I chose to answer it as given anyway. All gambling revenue is legally taxable — whether you get a W2G or not. The idea that you don’t owe taxes unless individual jackpots are $1,200 or higher is completely incorrect. If any of this is foreign to you, listen to the August 29 Gambling with an Edge podcast where Richard Munchkin and I interview tax expert Russell Fox.
What Would You Do?
In the 1970s, I was a backgammon player in Los Angeles. Decent enough player, but not great.
One of the semi-regular players at the Cavendish West was a guy named Steve. Steve was a so-so intermediate player — but he cheated. After a while, word got out and he couldn’t get into a game because his reputation preceded him.
I didn’t mind him as a person, although I would never gamble with him nor ever enter into a deal with him where he had a chance to screw me. Our respective girl friends liked each other and sometimes we went out as a foursome. I always insisted on him giving me $100 before we went out to cover his half of the meal. I would return any amount left over. No $100 beforehand meant no double date.
In January 1977, we visited a restaurant that I liked and Steve had never visited. It was a week before the Oakland Raiders versus Minnesota Vikings Superbowl XI. Since the game was being held in nearby Pasadena, there was a lot of local interest and the owner/cook, Jack, had the restaurant decorated in silver and black — signifying he liked the Oakland Raiders in that game.
Steve saw an opportunity. He was quite a charming guy — until it became time to pay up. He chatted up Jack and before too long they made a bet for “double or nothing for the next meal Steve ate” based on the results of the upcoming game.
Although the bet sounded fair, knowing Steve, it clearly wasn’t. If the Vikings won, Steve would bring three guests and order up lobster tails all around with several bottles of expensive wine. If the Raiders won (which actually turned out to be the case), Steve would disappear. He would never be around to pay off the bet.
By accepting the bet, Jack put himself into a position where he couldn’t win, but he could lose big-time.
My personal philosophy on bets between two other people is to stay out of it unless a family member was taking the worst of it. Whatever the two of them arranged was fine. Even if I thought one of them was taking the worst of it, I kept my mouth shut.
And that’s what I did here — with great misgivings.
While I didn’t know Jack well, I had been there for dinner three or four times and we greeted each other by first names. He didn’t know Steve was a sleazeball, but I did. Did he have a reasonable expectation that I wouldn’t bring someone dishonorable into his restaurant? I wasn’t sure, but it didn’t feel right to me.
Since the Raiders ended up winning, that was clearly the “least bad” result for Jack. He wasn’t going to get paid off by Steve, but his team won, and he wasn’t going to be out anything.
Even so, I didn’t feel comfortable going back to that restaurant again. I didn’t want to answer questions about “my friend Steve and when was he coming by to pay up.” So, I guess Jack did lose one occasional customer and one occasional friend.
What would you have done? Would you have spoken up at the time? And if so, would it have been in front of both of them or just privately with Jack? Keep in mind that the fact that the Raiders ended up winning is irrelevant to whether I should have spoken up at the time of the bet. When it was time to “do something or not,” the game had not yet been played.
Author’s Note: I recently broke my rule about not getting involved if a family member of mine was taking the worst of it. There was a Caesars Seven Stars party and I got tickets for Bonnie, her sister, and her daughter. I was off at an Improv workshop. The three ladies would have a good time together. Bonnie had met several of my gambling friends that she liked and many of them would probably be there.
During the evening, Bonnie ran into two of these friends, “Tim” and “Alice.” Tim talked Bonnie into a $3 bet on an upcoming football game. Bonnie came back and told me about her bet with Tim, but she had no idea what team she bet on. She couldn’t tell me which teams were playing, let alone who was favored. Tim sent an amusing email contract using over-the-top legalese documenting the bet. I accepted on Bonnie’s behalf and promised to hold her feet to the fire should she lose.
Turns out that Bonnie’s team was a 1½-point underdog and she was making the bet straight up. While she’s definitely a family member taking the worst of it, I kept quiet. For $3 at a time, getting the wrong side isn’t so terrible.
A Scholarship Offer
In last week’s column, I reprinted a seven-year-old article I wrote about Edward Thorp saying that gambling is a tax on ignorance, which I would amend to being a tax on the ignorant and the lazy.
Soon after I wrote that, John Chang (former long-time manager of the MIT blackjack team) appeared on GWAE and commented that while he agreed that gambling is a tax on the ignorant and the lazy, it also provides a scholarship for the smart and hard-working!
That’s exactly the way I look at gambling, although I accept the words “ignorant” and “lazy” as being relative terms and not absolute.
Simply put, beating a casino is difficult. You need to have some moxie. And even then, you need to spend a lot of time figuring out how to succeed. But that was largely what last week’s article was about. Today let’s talk more about what I mean by a “scholarship.” How do you get it? How do you keep it?
What I mean by scholarship is that if you do it right, the casinos pay you to come in and play intelligently. They do not do this on purpose. Their goal is not to support professional players. But that’s the way it works out.
Casinos do compete with each other and they do offer promotions to attract players. Some of these promotions are beatable. Some of the games are beatable. Play those!
Casino marketing people are not always savvy about doing the math on all promotions. This is a simplified generalization and not always true, but marketing types tend to be creative right-brained people while the ones who can figure out the math for promotions (for casino employees AND players) are left-brained people. When the promotions are developed by the right-brained marketing people, that is the time for you to play!
Casinos basically recycle money from the losing players and give it to the winning players, while keeping a small percentage to cover their own expenses and profit. If the casinos have enough losing players, they can afford to have a few winning players.
Why knowing this is important is that if you want to win, you have to treat the losing players with respect! They pay for your golden goose! If you go around insulting them because they are playing 8/5 Jacks or Better when there’s 9/6 Jacks or Better a few aisles over, you’re jeopardizing your scholarship!
(Yes, I know that my teaching others to identify good machines and play well hurts the players who already know how to play, and wish to keep the “secrets” to themselves. Whether anybody likes it or not, this is one of my chosen missions in life and I plan to continue on that mission indefinitely.)
The casino needs to make its profit somewhere. If nobody played the bad games, they would find it wasn’t profitable to offer the good games. If losing players got insulted when they came to the casino, that would take a lot of their pleasure away. It’s already an expensive activity for these players. If it isn’t fun, many will stop donating to your scholarship fund.
One key to keeping your scholarship is to not keep rubbing it into the casino’s face. There are players who keep playing until the casino kicks them out. For players who are comfortable being on the road all the time and always going to new places, that might be an okay procedure. But for those who want the golden goose to keep paying and paying, this is not a good plan.
This means that if you get significantly ahead, stay away for a while. If you win more than one drawing in a short period of time, don’t enter any more for a few months. This also means, if you’re a winning player, don’t be loud and obnoxious or otherwise a pain in the ass to the casino. They will put up with unpleasant behavior if you’re a loser. But if you’re a winner, this gives them one more reason to kick you out.
Video poker players have an additional edge over other types of advantage gamblers in that we lose most of the time! Royal flushes are relatively rare. The time between royal flushes will usually consist of negative scores. A video poker player who wins every day is largely unknown — unless something fishy is going on. That lets casinos believe that your royal flushes are mainly luck and you’ll give it all back. And it lets losing players have their memory of that one night in 2016 when they hit two royal flushes. These players will return over and over trying to catch magic in a bottle again.
A Tax on Ignorance
This article was originally published by me on July 24, 2012. Someone recently commented on it to me and I went back to check it out. I feel the article has stood up well over the past seven years and is worth revisiting, partly because many of my readers today weren’t readers way back then. Plus, I wish to extend the story next week.
I was reading a 2011 interview of Edward Thorp, a mathematical genius who created the first widespread blackjack card-counting system (Beat the Dealer) some fifty years ago, and then published a methodology for investing in various markets (Beat the Market) a short time later. He is widely credited with being the first “quant,” which is someone who uses advanced quantitative models for deciding where to invest.
He was interviewed by a group called “Investment Management Consultants Association” as part of their “Masters Series.” This organization is associated with both the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. This is a group of academics with top-notch credentials.
Most of the interview concerned financial investing, but there were a few gambling questions as well. In particular, Thorp was asked why losers at gambling don’t simply quit.
Thorp said, “It seems to me that people are not just wealth maximizers but seeking to maximize something else, whether they do it accurately or inaccurately, whatever their total satisfaction is from whatever they’re doing. I imagine that’s the explanation for why people will gamble and lose money. They supposedly get an entertainment payout. Part of it, though, is that gambling has a tax on ignorance. People often gamble because they think they can win, they’re lucky, they have hunches, that sort of thing, whereas in fact, they’re going to be remorselessly ground down over time.”
Thorp was not speaking about or to advantage gamblers. Although there are a lot of smart gamblers that read my articles, Thorp was addressing a group of people who were accomplished in financial investing, but likely were not particularly knowledgeable about gambling. These people probably believed the house ALWAYS had the edge. For the vast majority of gamblers, this is a realistic thing to believe.
Although it’s possible that Thorp has never played video poker and almost certainly was not thinking of that game in particular when he addressed these writers, I found myself thinking about how Thorp’s comments applied to recreational video poker players.
There are “smart” recreational gamblers. These players know they are taking the worst of it but enjoy what they are doing and don’t mind paying for it. This is actually a rational way to act for some people. These players believe becoming skillful is too difficult, too time consuming, too boring, or too whatever. These players pay for their gambling excitement. Thorp wasn’t talking about this group of gamblers either because these players are not ignorant about their chances.
There is a large group of video poker players who simply do not believe that pay schedules matter very much and that strategy is mostly common sense. These people believe they will win if they’re lucky and lose if they’re unlucky.
These players often use systems to limit their losses. Some of them believe that if they refuse to lose more than $100 each time they go gambling — but their potential win is unlimited — that this, then, is a good money management system. Others use variations on the Martingale systems. These systems can usually book a small win, but the occasional big losses wipe out far more than those accumulated small wins.
Still others believe in changing machines if either the machine has just hit a jackpot or has been too stingy in paying out jackpots recently. Both reasons are equally fallacious.
These people are not necessarily stupid (although some are). They have their strategies for playing as they do. They just don’t have the knowledge to realize that their strategies are largely worthless. And they don’t understand that this lack of knowledge dooms them to being a long-term loser.
A lot of these players defend their strategies and will argue with anybody who attempts to explain what modern experts believe is the correct way to think. In the days of Internet forums, everybody has the right to post what they believe. If you’re just beginning, you don’t know who is knowledgeable and who isn’t.
Gambling’s tax on ignorance is quite high. It is especially high for those who don’t believe it exists or think that they are immune to it. Most people who know they aren’t knowledgeable play for small stakes relative to their total wealth. To lose a lot, somebody either really must think that their system works or that they really know the right way to do it. And when the ignorant bet big, the results almost always involve getting into a financial hole that keeps getting bigger and bigger over time.
Take Care of Your Money
As I told you last week, I was recently reading Colin Jones’ new book, The 21st Century Card Counter, preparing to interview him for the GWAE podcast. Although Colin is addressing his comments towards blackjack players, a lot of the general information is useful to video poker players as well. Today’s column was inspired by his Chapter 7: Traveling as a Card Counter.
The first thing I want to address is how much money you should take with you to a casino. If you have access to markers (casino speak for IOUs) at the casino, then you take as little as possible. If you collect money at the start of your play and turn it in at the end, there is less chance for it to be stolen from you between here and there.
But markers are a major difference between video poker players and card players. If you play big enough to use markers, in video poker you’re going to be getting W2Gs that require you to show ID. Therefore, showing ID at the cage is something video poker players have to put up with in order to do business. Many times, blackjack players do not play rated — meaning they do not give their identity to the casino. These people are not willing to show ID at the cage, so that precludes getting markers. For some reason casinos do not respond well to a request such as, “I’m not going to tell you who I am, but I want to borrow $20,000 in cash for a few days.”
So, let’s assume for the current discussion that we are not talking about markers. You’re going to be playing a game where, even if things go really badly, there’s a 99% chance that you will lose less than $5,000 today. (You can get such numbers from the Video Poker for Winners software, or another good product is Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker.)
If that’s your only play today, it’s unnecessarily risky to start the day with $10,000 in your pocket. Nothing good can happen from having that extra money on you, and we all can think of plenty of bad things. One time in a hundred you’re going to run out of money with “only” $5,000. (That’s basically what having a 99% chance of it not happening means.) Unfortunate, but a cheap enough price to pay for the unpredictable, but real, chance that you could lose that money to either carelessness or malfeasance on the part of others.
Another point on this subject that Jones drives home is to be aware of your surroundings. If you get paid for a big jackpot, it can be noticed by others who want to separate you from your winnings. For this reason, if I hit a jackpot of $8,000 or higher, I ask if I can be paid “in private,” which can mean different things in different casinos. Having a slot attendant loudly counting out, “One hundred, two hundred, three hundred . . . “in front of anybody in the vicinity creates some risk.
In the era of cell phones, it’s very possible for somebody to text, “A 40-something guy in a green shirt with brown pants is carrying a lot of money. I’ll let you know when he’s heading towards the parking lot.” (That would not be me. It’s been decades since someone identified me as being 40-something, and it’s extremely rare that I wear brown pants.) So, your attacker may well be someone who wasn’t present when you were paid, but who found out from somebody else.
After a big winning session, I frequently stroll through the casino, zigging and zagging, too see if anybody is following me. Many times, I’ve approached a security guard and said, “I would like an escort to my car, and if you bring along another guard, I have tip money for both of you.”
If there is a parking garage elevator and there’s another guy waiting there who I don’t know, I’ll frequently “remember” something to do just as the elevator comes and let him go up alone. If there’s a large group in the elevator, I feel safer. If you’re healthy enough, walking the stairs in a parking garage is safer than taking the elevator, plus it’s rare enough that you can easily see if somebody is following you.
If you are mugged in an elevator, be sure to report it to security. Many casinos have cameras in the elevators and that can go a long way towards verifying your story and possibly apprehending the culprit.
There were certainly more things in this chapter that are worth remembering, but these were the items that tickled my “I haven’t written about that recently” button. Thank you, Colin.