Category: Video Poker

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I Can’t Help

I keep strange hours. Sometimes I’m up all night. Sometimes I’m up all day. Overall, I get my sleep, but nobody knows at any given time of day whether I’ll be awake or not.

At about 2 a.m. on a recent night, I was writing an article when I received a text message from a friend, George. The message showed two jackpots. One was for deuces with an ace kicker for $3,400 on a $1 13-4-3-3 Deuces Bonus game with two progressives, and the second was for the royal itself — $8,000. By looking at the numbers for the screen shots, they must have hit almost back to back.

I responded with “Congratulations,” but didn’t say more. This is not a friend who sends me pictures of every W2G he gets, and I don’t want to turn him into one.

As soon as I sent off the congrats, he texted “Can we talk?” I didn’t know what it was about, but I called him right away.

It turned out that he hit the aces jackpot and his sometimes-partner, Cliff, hit the royal. He said this time they were partners on all of the scores.

Cliff, it turns out, is a Canadian citizen in the United States on a permanent work visa. He has a temporary driver’s license, which gets renewed one year at a time, because he is not a United States citizen.

The floor person noticed the temporary license and asked about it. When she found that Cliff was a Canadian citizen, she said the casino was required to withhold 30% of the W2G — $2,400. Cliff has previously earned hundreds of W2Gs and this is only the second time money has been withheld.

When the money is withheld, it is sent to the appropriate taxation department in Canada. To retrieve any or all of it, Cliff would need to file a Canadian tax return. Right now, he only files United States returns.

The slot supervisor showed up and told Cliff that the 30% would be withheld, period. It would be withheld temporarily if Cliff said he could bring in a United States passport or a non-temporary driver’s license. If Cliff didn’t think he could produce one of those in the very near future, the money would be sent to Canada.

So, George asked my advice as to what to do.

I told him that my read was that the casino was acting appropriately. That’s the law. The $2,400 they were withholding wasn’t doing the casino any good because they had to forward it to Canada, but refusing to do it could get them into trouble if it was discovered.

I suggested that Cliff’s options were to become a United States citizen (which I understand is his intention, but it is sometimes a lengthy process), accept that losing 30% of jackpots occasionally was just an expense of doing business, or, perhaps, find another way to earn money.

I had no advice about filing a Canadian tax return. I don’t know the rules and can’t speak to the advantages and disadvantages of going that route.

Although I’ve met Cliff and like him, George is my friend. I suggested that if George and Cliff are going to continue to be occasional progressive-chasing partners who share some or all of jackpots, then this potential of 30% being withheld should be explicitly discussed. Right now, George and Cliff are sharing that 30% “penalty.” It probably hadn’t been discussed because it hadn’t happened recently, but now that it’s out in the open, it needs to be discussed.

I don’t particularly care how they resolve it. It could be that Cliff is the dominant partner and George is lucky to be allowed to tag along. In that case, sharing in the 30% is probably correct. If Cliff is the more knowledgeable partner, a different arrangement would be appropriate.

There are privileges that are associated with being a U. S. citizen. This particular one has been agreed to by treaty and is not likely to be changed in the near future. The fact that this particular one affects some of my gambling friends is unfortunate, but that’s the law and we all must live with it.

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Games I Prefer

Generally, I’m going to play the game that returns the most — including slot club, promotions, and mailer. Sometimes, however, I have a choice between a few different games that return about the same amount.  Here is my approximate ranking — your mileage may vary.

Hundred Play > Fifty Play > Ten Play > Five Play > Triple Play > single line games. Assuming the same return, the more lines the better. This increases the fun and decreases the variance.

I prefer these over Double Super Times Pay and Super Times Pay. Keep in mind, though, that if it’s the same pay schedule, the DSTP version adds about 0.5% and the STP versions adds half that. These additions more than make up for the fact that these aren’t my favorite games. The reason for my lack of excitement on these games is the speed. Whenever you get a multiplier, it takes five seconds or so for the exact multiplier to be “squeezed” out and made visible. I’d prefer to have that five seconds to play another hand.

Quick Quads > Ultimate X. Since neither game regularly comes in good pay schedules (other than at the South Point), the choice is moot for most people who seriously value winning. Quick Quads has a different strategy — but not a greatly different one. The sound Quick Quads makes when you get a Quick Quads (namely three of a kind where the ranks of the other two cards add up to the rank of the trips) strikes the right level of excitement and non-annoyingness. Ultimate X is a game with a sky-high variance and the strategy for the game is quite a bit different than regular video poker games. You have to be in the mood to play and willing to lose a great amount today, even with a good pay schedule.

Spin Poker is okay, but not nearly as attractive to me as Ten Play.

I usually avoid Dream Card as I find the sound effects annoying.

Multi Strike is an interesting game, but it’s slow. Keeping four strategies straight requires some effort, although it’s not impossible. If I’m playing while tired, though, I’ll sometimes make mistakes on this game.

I prefer slant tops to uprights to bar tops. Bar-top machines, even with good pay schedules, have stickier than average buttons due to drinks being spilled on them. I can play longer on slant tops than I can on uprights.

I prefer adjustable seats to non-adjustable. I am taller than average and prefer a higher chair than average.

Each of these game-types come with several different games.  That is, you can find Double Double Bonus, Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, etc., in most of these game types.

Deuces Wild is generally my favorite game. (It doesn’t exist in Quick Quads.) What makes it interesting to me is you never know what you will get. Start with two deuces and you can end up with anything from 3-of-a-kind to four deuces — meaning anywhere from five coins to 1,000 — per line.

Jacks or Better — This game is arguably the simplest and has the lowest variance. Some people get bored with the variance, but not me. Since I’m playing games where the slot club and other goodies give me an advantage, it’s plenty okay just to grind it out.

Double Double Bonus — This is the most popular video poker game in the country. I generally avoid it because it rarely returns more than 99%. When found in a better version, or with a GREAT promotion, this game is fun. Better have your seat belt on though. It has a lot of variance.

I will play other games, of course, if they happen to be the best game at a casino. Exactly which one it is doesn’t matter much to me. If I can learn the strategy, I can play it. If learning additional games doesn’t come easily to you, you might limit your selection to the games you already know.

There are games like Ultimate X Bonus Streak and others where the correct strategy is unknown — at least by me. I do not have the computer programming skills to work it out, and commercially available software does not contain these games. To get good at a game I need a computer to correct me when I make a mistake.

As I said at the beginning, the total return of the game is the most important thing to me. It matters to me not at all if your favorite games are different than mine.

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If Bob Dancer is Playing . . .

A few years ago, for several days in a row, I was hammering a $5 Five Play 9/6 Double Double Bonus game. This game returns 98.98% and it is very un-Dancer-like to play so much on a game that bad.

I received an email from somebody I didn’t know asking me why I was playing the game. While I generally respond to polite emails, this time I didn’t bother. I share a lot of information, but I’m not required to share everything. I had figured something out, I believed, and I wasn’t talking except to a very few players who also sometimes share juicy things with me.

After it was over, one of our guests on the Gambling with an Edge podcast, Sam, who I hadn’t known previously, told me he was approached by somebody who saw me playing and figured that if it was good for me, it was probably good for others as well. The person asking didn’t have the bankroll to do it himself, which is why he approached Sam. Sam asked me if it would have been a good idea for him to bankroll the other player.

I knew the incident Sam was talking about. I’m still not talking about the details because parts of it are still alive and friends are still playing it on occasion.

I told Sam that in general, just seeing me there wasn’t sufficient to have an edge.

  1. This might have been an invited guest situation where some players have an offer that others don’t. If Sam didn’t know why I was playing, he didn’t get the offer.
  2. There could have been point multipliers available to players who get regular mailers and would not be available to Sam, who wasn’t an established player there. Even players who do get multipliers don’t always get the same multiplier.
  3. Maybe I had to play a certain amount quickly in order to be eligible for something juicy.
  4. Possibly there was a loss rebate promotion going on.
  5. There could have been one or more drawings included in the EV, some of which Sam didn’t know about and/or for which he wasn’t eligible. As an example, Sam wouldn’t qualify for a senior drawing, but I would. Or even if he did know about and was eligible for a drawing, possibly he would have had something else to do on the night(s) of the must-be-there-to-win drawing(s).
  6. There could be annual tier levels to which I aspired, but Sam didn’t care about. Several casinos, for example, offer cruises if you reach their highest tier level. Bonnie and I enjoy these. I know several players who are bored out of their minds on a cruise and playing extra to earn one isn’t something they would consider.
  7. I might have been playing extra to earn additional comps for some reason.
  8. There was more than one seemingly identical machine at this casino. I might have known one of them was superior for some reason.
  9. There were higher-EV machines available at this casino, but knowing what I knew, I believed they were actually lower-EV when you considered everything. If Sam played a higher-EV machine so he could “improve” on the way I was playing the game, his results would have been worse.
  10. I could possibly have had a deal with the casino that if I played $1 million on this game, I would get a $5,000 rebate — or something. That’s a half-percent in equity. That could easily change a “not playable” game into being playable. Perhaps it was a deal I negotiated individually. Perhaps it was one open to all players who played $1 million coin-in a month.
  11. It’s possible I screwed up and this play wasn’t as good as I thought it was. This doesn’t happen a whole lot for me, but I am 72 years old and it happens more than it used to. Sam couldn’t know if it was happening “this time.”
  12. There are bankroll issues on plays. Five-dollar five play 9/6 DDB takes more bankroll than most players are used to. Let’s say it went bad this time and the player (either me or Sam) lost $30,000. I understand the swings and am used to that. I wouldn’t be delighted by that result, but it really isn’t a big deal. It’s part of my world. How would Sam feel about that?

Did all of these things happen? No, of course not. Not on that one occasion, but they all have happened at least once to me. Were some of them in effect this time? Absolutely.
Seeing me (or another knowledgeable player) at a casino definitely provides some useful information for you. And sometimes you are also a regular at that casino and you know what promotions are going on — and can easily figure out why that game is being played today.

But if it’s not obvious to you why I’m playing, it’s probably not a good game for you. There are so many possible reasons why I might be playing, and without knowing which reasons are in effect at this time, it could very well be that it’s not a good play for you at all.

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Chasing a Progressive

There are hundreds of video poker progressives in greater Las Vegas. As a general rule, I avoid these games. Progressives are not my bread and butter. Still, I occasionally do sit down at a progressive that catches my eye, and recently there was such a case.

A $2 9/5 DDB progressive at the South Point was at more than $16,000 for the royal, with additional progressives for aces with a kicker and 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker. Putting all the numbers into computer software showed the game was currently worth about 100.80%, plus a 0.30% slot club. Additionally, in general the more coin-in you have, the better your mailers are. So, I sat down.

I had enough cash on hand, I thought, including the availability of markers. I was used to DDB itself, which has a variance of a bit more than 40. Doubling the royal jacks up the variance to around 100. Although I have the tools to figure out bankroll for this, I wasn’t near my computer and I had to wing it. I figured I was up to playing for four or five hours. If the royal hadn’t been hit by then, I’d reevaluate whether or not I wanted to continue.

There are 20 machines connected to this progressive and perhaps a third of the seats were taken when I got there at 10 p.m. on a Saturday evening. At midnight, half of the machines were taken, and the progressive was more than $18,000. The 2s, 3s, and 4s, with a kicker progressive had been hit a few times. It started out at $1,600 and was usually hit by $1,700. The difference between this jackpot at $1,600 and the same jackpot at $1,700 is 0.14%. Not chopped liver, but it’s not the primary prize.

Aces with a kicker were worth more than $5,000. That added more than 0.6%, but even without that, the royal progressive was high enough that the game was worth playing. When the aces were knocked off, the royal progressive was more than $19,000, which is worth about 101% even without the lesser jackpots.

At about 2 a.m., the royal reached $20,000. About 2/3 of the seats were full and at that point, somebody hit the royal. Time to go home.

I had run $40,000 coin-in through the machine. I failed to hit any W2G (regular aces are worth $1,600, in addition to the other jackpots already discussed.) My score was $7,100 in the soup. No fun. But not really a big deal. DDB is a heaven-or-hell game, and special quads and the royals add a lot to the EV. Blanking on those is expensive in the short run.

Generally speaking, when playing a progressive, the person hitting the royal comes out way ahead and the others lose. In this case, the guy who knocked off the aces with a kicker was also probably ahead, but most of the rest of us lost. Such is the nature of playing DDB progressives. Play the game enough and you’ll get your share.

I recognized more than half of the players when the royal was finally hit. Some I hadn’t seen for several years. I assume most of them knew who I was, as I’m well-known in the Las Vegas video poker community, although not in the video poker progressive-playing community. I don’t know this for a fact, but it wouldn’t surprise me if a few phone calls had been made in the nature of, “You better come down here. It is so juicy even Bob Dancer is playing it.”

Am I going to do this again soon? Doubtful. But maybe. It’s a positive play, albeit one with large swings. Between casinos restricting players and the general tightening of machines, it’s hard to find good video poker opportunities in Las Vegas these days. This is one avenue to stay in the game, although it’s not my first choice.

We’ll see.

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A Matter of Perspective

I had a trip to take not related to gambling. There was a casino nearby. I knew that if I gave them some action, I could get a comped room and possibly a meal or two. I figured if they had at least 8/5 Bonus (99.166%), I was money ahead by staying at the casino.

I looked at www.vpfree2.com. This is a site that tries to list the loosest games in most casinos around the country. It is run by volunteers, and it is not always completely accurate. It is usually accurate, and sometimes you need to make decisions based on the best information available.

This website said 8/5 Aces & Faces was the best game. This is a 99.255% game. It is the same as 8/5 Bonus, except that you get the 40-for-1 quads on kings, queens, and jacks rather than twos, threes, and fours. It certainly qualified as being “at least” 8/5 Bonus, so I booked the room.

When I got there, I found the game as advertised. They also had 8/5 Ace$ Bonus at 99.407%. This game has “sequential” aces, meaning that if you got the aces in alphabetical order in either positions 1-4 or 2-5, you get paid 4,000 coins rather than 400.

It is clearly superior to 8/5 Bonus, except the sequential aces bonus feature kicks in approximately every 250,000 hands. Assuming you don’t hit the sequential aces, it’s worse than 8/5 Bonus because you make some plays “going for it.” The most common such play is that when you’re dealt aces full with the three existing aces in sequential position, you toss the pair and go for the fourth ace, hopefully in the correct position.

I was only going to be playing a few thousand hands. Which is the better play?

Assuming variance isn’t an issue financially or psychologically, it’s clear that going for the game with the highest EV is the better choice. And that’s what I chose. I didn’t hit the bonus hand and there was not dealt an appropriate aces full hand.

I did not torture myself by taking special note of how many of which quads I hit so I could afterwards decide whether the Aces & Faces version would have been better. Some folks do this, but you need to make your decisions beforehand and whatever happens this particular time is pretty unimportant.

But for many people, discounting variance shouldn’t be done so cavalierly.

If you live and die with today’s score, the Aces & Faces game is a better choice. If you’re playing for stakes that are a bit higher than your comfort zone, the same answer applies.

We will never know why the Ace$ Bonus game wasn’t included on the www.vpfree2.com listing. It could have been the monitor didn’t see it, didn’t know how much it was worth, or was afraid of the game because of the variance. There could be other reasons as well. It is, after all, a site where you don’t know who does the work behind-the-scenes and you never find out their motives or abilities.

Even though the information I sought was incorrect on the site, I’m glad the site exists. It’s generally correct and when you’re going to a location where you haven’t scouted recently, it’s a major time saver. I wouldn’t depend on it for a frequently visited casino where I play a lot, but for “just popping through” for a few days, it’s satisfactory enough.

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Safety Precautions

I usually play by myself and sometimes will eat a meal at the casino. When I do, I always bring along a book to read while dining. Sometimes the book is a novel. Sometimes it is non-fiction – perhaps a book by a future guest on the podcast. But eating by myself without a book seems like a waste of time to me.

On one recent day, as I finished playing, the credits on my machine amounted to $1,240. Not a particularly large amount, but large enough that I had to visit the cage to get it cashed. The ATM/Change machines at this casino would not redeem tickets of $1,000 and higher.

I needed to use the restroom before I went to the cage. So, I placed my players card, driver’s license, and ticket for $1,240 in my book, and carried the book as I went on my way. So long as I’m careful, the book acts like a safe of sorts. And I am careful. At least most of the time.

Somehow, however, I wasn’t careful enough this time. I still don’t know how it happened, but when I showed up at the cage, the book was “empty.” No ticket. No ID. No card. I checked my wallet “in case” I had put the things there instead of where I thought I put them, but no luck.

Shit.

Losing $1,240 is a nuisance rather than a disaster. Losing my driver’s license was much more of a problem. I immediately traced my steps back to the restroom, checking the floor along the way on the slim chance the items had fallen out and had not been picked up by anyone else.

Nothing.

As I was leaving the restroom, I noticed the attendant was holding a driver’s license in his hand. I identified myself and asked if it was mine. It was. I asked about the players card. He said he had thrown it away. It was still on top of the trash can, so I retrieved that as well. I asked about the ticket, and he said he didn’t know anything about that. Was he telling the truth? Who knows?

I went back to the cage and asked if they had cashed a ticket for exactly $1,240 in the past few minutes. No, they hadn’t. I then said I’d like to report a missing ticket. Soon a slot supervisor came and took my statement. We went to the machine I had been playing, where the display said that the last ticket redeemed was $1,240. I told the supervisor that I had been playing there for about three hours, always with my card, and surely their slot club records and cameras could verify that.

I had to fill out a written statement, which I did. A few minutes later a “Metro” (police officer from the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department) came by and asked me for my story again. So, I told it. He wanted a written report. I told him I was willing, but if he could get a photocopy of the casino report that would be much easier.

I was asked to wait.

About 20 minutes later, another Metro came by and asked me if I wanted to press charges. I told him that my primary concern was retrieving the $1,240. He told me I was going to get the $1,240 back and the person who tried to cash it was in detention downstairs.

That was lucky!

Still, if someone had actually ripped me off, they deserved to be punished. If someone found abandoned property, maybe not. The restroom attendant was the only person who spoke to me and was definitely aware of whom the ticket belonged to. Anybody else? It’s possible it was dropped on the floor and I wasn’t sure of how the “finder-keeper loser-weeper” rule worked in this particular instance.

I was asked if I was willing to testify in court. I said yes, but I repeated that the only person I could identify was the restroom attendant who I described by age (50ish), race (Hispanic), build (medium), and other features (spoke English with very little trace of an accent). If anybody else tried to turn in the ticket, there was nothing I could say in court proving that person’s guilt.

In another 20 minutes I got my ticket back. I was never asked to identify anybody. I assume it wasn’t the restroom attendant who tried to cash the ticket.

Obviously, I’m luckier than I deserve to be. I didn’t have to discover the loss so quickly. The ticket didn’t have to be larger than could be cashed anonymously at the machines. Even discovering the loss, the one “skillful” element here was reporting it immediately.

Being able to stop the ticket before it was cashed made recovery easier. Had the ticket already been cashed, the casino might not have been so quick to pay me. There are cameras at the cage, and it could depend on who turned in the ticket. And whether they help me might partially depend on whether I’m a winning or losing player.

If it was cashed by a valued customer (i.e. one who loses a lot), the casino might not want to embarrass him by confronting him. If it was cashed by someone the casino didn’t recognize, the casino may very well have decided not to pay out the $1,240 twice.

Was there a lesson to be learned about better securing valuable things? Of course.

Two items flashed through my mind that I will leave for the reader to ponder. First, assuming I didn’t get the ticket back, how should I record that in my records? In case of audit, I want my records to match what the casino has. I didn’t come to a firm conclusion about this as I got my money back before I needed to record it.

Second, when I got the money back, how much should I have tipped? And to whom?

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It’s All About the Quads

In February, I was playing 25¢ Five Play Multi-Strike 9/6 Jacks or Better at the South Point. This is a 99.79% game, played for 100 coins ($25) at a time. With the normal 0.30% slot club, the knowledgeable player has a small advantage all of the time.

In February, however, there were always two casino-wide progressives going on which added some small amount of EV. The bigger progressive must hit between $10,000 and $25,000, and was currently at about $22,000. Assuming there were 1,000 players playing, each of us had a 1/1,000 chance of hitting the progressive — but if we were in the other 999/1000 when it went off, we’d each receive $25 in free play.

It was not a huge amount of equity, but I needed to get some play done to keep the mailers coming, so this was the time I would be playing.

There are four such machines at the casino, and frequently the other three of them are empty. This time, however, there were two guys playing the 9/6 Double Double Bonus version of the same game. I had never seen them before, but they were discussing hands like they knew what they were talking about.

Although I hadn’t checked recently, I was pretty sure that the Jacks or Better game returned quite a bit more than the Double Double Bonus game. Still, here were two obviously knowledgeable players, so I decided to check next time I was at my computer.

When I got home that night, I discovered that the 9/6 DDB Multi-Strike game returned 99.18%. While I didn’t have this number at my fingertips, it was consistent with about what I thought it was. The base game starts out with JoB worth 0.56% more than DDB and I thought the Multi-Strike aspect to the game would add approximately the same amount to each game. It turned out that it added 0.25% to JoB and 0.20% to DDB.

Two days later I stopped by and the progressive was more than $20,000 again, so I sat down to play. One of the players from two days before was there and he asked me if I was Bob Dancer. He told me he had purchased the Video Poker for Winners software years before and that taught him how to play the game. He comes to Vegas five times a year for a four-day trip and always played DDB Multi-Strike. He boasts that he was taught by Bob Dancer.

I asked him why he played DDB rather than JoB? He said the results were all about the quads and it was a lot more exciting for him.

I told him I understood. Four aces return $200 or $500 (depending on whether they have a kicker) and on the 2x, 4x, or 8x line it can turn into a taxable. Four 2s, 3s, and 4s pay $100 or $200 depending on the kicker and the other quads pay $62.50. These numbers are quite a bit larger than the $31.25 that all quads pay in JoB. Excitement is fun!

At the same time, I told him the game he played returned 0.6% less than the JoB version. Since he played about $150,000 each time he came to Vegas, on average that’s $900 per trip or $4,500 per year. Was it that much more exciting?

Even JoB is plenty volatile in the Multi-Strike version. DDB is quite a bit more so. Yes, there will be trips he goes home a winner, but there will also be trips he loses quite a bit. He agreed, saying he was down $8,000 so far this trip.

This guy taught himself how to play, thanks to the software. But there’s a lot more to playing successfully than just knowing how to play the hands.

If this guy has the money and this is how he wants to spend it, great. Everybody gets to make their own choices.

Still, it bothered me that someone who loses so much regularly tells people that I was his teacher!

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An “Advantage Play” I Detest

What is an advantage play? While I have never heard a precise definition, generally it is when you use your intelligence, knowledge, or guile to gain an advantage over some other person or group. The term is most often used in discussions about beating a casino.

Counting cards at blackjack is a common advantage play. Using video poker knowledge to choose which machines to play and to play every hand correctly, combined with an understanding of slot clubs and promotions, is the type of advantage play in which I regularly indulge. Betting sports, where you have computed that the line should be -3 and the books have them at -7, is still another. As is seeking dealers who expose the bottom card or make incorrect payouts. Here we are extracting extra money from a casino – which is the entire point of intelligent gambling.

Outside the casino, clipping coupons could be considered an advantage play – especially if sometimes you get the stuff for free. Doing all your shopping during sales and never paying full retail is another. Standing in the “10 items or less line when you actually have 11 items is another.  The list is endless.

In normal use of the term, advantage play includes legal actions and excludes illegal actions. With this definition, using a computer strapped to your thigh to help you figure out how to play blackjack accurately in Nevada is not an advantage play. It is an illegal one.

The problem with this definition is that often what is legal or illegal is a gray area and must be determined by the courts — where it helps to hire good lawyers. While I strongly believe the edge sorting that Phil Ivey and Kelly Sun did at Borgata, Crockfords, and other casinos should be a 100% legal advantage play, the courts have disagreed. Sometimes you just don’t know what is legal or what is not, although there is not doubt about the most egregious cases such as using a gun to rob a bank.

Let me get to what bugs me so much.

My wife, Bonnie, fell hard recently and hit on her buttocks/hip area. Nothing was broken, fortunately, but she’s 75 years old and the fall debilitated her. Although she may be walking without assistance when you next see her, for several weeks she used a walker, or a cane, or sometimes even a wheel chair. She asked her orthopedist to sign the form for a temporary “Disability Placard” to enable her to park close to places she needed to go. The doctor agreed and we went into the DMV to get the placard.

While we were in the DMV, where we had no problem, on the next chair over was a woman writhing in pain. She could barely even sit down, and she was constantly moaning. Clearly, she was in agony.   It was uncomfortable to see. We didn’t know her and couldn’t really help her, but someone hurting that much made our hearts go out to her.

We finished before she did, and I left Bonnie by the front door of the DMV while I went to retrieve our car and pick her up. When I got there to pick up Bonnie and was helping her in the front seat, we saw the woman who was in so much pain exit the DMV, immediately straighten up, and begin to jog towards her car!

Although there may be another side to this story, to us it looked like she got the disability placards merely so she can park up close to wherever she’s going. This was clearly an advantage play.

You might consider this smart until you consider that there are only a limited number of handicapped parking spots at many places, and the spot she’ll be taking should be left available to someone who really needs it.

When she signed up, Bonnie received two placards. One she placed in her own car, of course, and the other she gave to me. When she’s with me, I park in a handicapped space. When she’s not with me, I don’t.

On one occasion, the temptation to use the placard when she wasn’t with me was strong. I resisted. But I might someday not resist.

In order to help me “practice what I preach,” I offer you the following promise: If you ever see me use a handicapped space inappropriately (i.e. when Bonnie’s not around or when I don’t qualify for one myself, which I don’t currently but I’m 72 years old and who knows what the future holds?), mention it and I will give you $100. If there are three of you in the group, I will give all three of you $100 each.

Parting with a few Benjamins won’t break me, but I don’t throw money around. It would irritate me (at my own short-coming) should I ever have to pay money for something I shouldn’t be doing anyway. I’m not really famous, but I’ve taught enough classes that tens of thousands of people in Las Vegas recognize me. Knowing that I might have to fork over some money if I “cheat” will assist me in walking the walk.

Forgive the pun please, but we all need crutches, and this is one that will help me.

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Two Cards or Four? When Does It Matter?  

Consider the following two hands in games where you get your money back for a pair of jacks or better:  A♠ K♠ Q♥ T♦ 5♣ and A♠ K♠ Q♥ T♦ 5♠. There are games where the correct play in both hands is AK; games where the correct play is always AKQT; and games where in the first hand you hold AK and in the second you hold AKQT. Today we’re going to look at which games fall into which category, and why.

First, I’ll provide the “executive summary” for when each condition holds. That’s all some of my readers wish to know. Afterwards, I’ll provide some more detail as to the “why.”

     A. In games where two pair returns 2-for-1, always hold AK.

     B. In games where two pair returns 1-for-1 and straights return 4-for-1, hold AK in the first hand and AKQT in the second.

     C. In games where two pair returns 1-for-1 and straights return 5-for-1, always hold AKQT.

 

Now let’s go a little deeper. In Category A, we basically have Jacks or Better and Bonus Poker. The pay schedule matters not at all for the value of AKQT, so long as it has the standard return for straights, two pair, and high pairs. The value of AKQT is always going to be $2.66 for the five-coin dollar player.

The value of AK, however, is also affected by the value you get for full houses and flushes — but not much. Holding AK in 9/6 Jacks or Better is worth $2.87 and $2.79 and in 8/5 Bonus Poker these values drop to $2.82 and $2.75 — which are still well above the $2.66 benchmark for holding AKQT. A key fact that will come in later in the article is that in the Jacks or Better case, when the low card is unsuited with the AK, then AK is worth 21¢ more than AKQT, and when the low card is suited with the AK, then AK is worth 13¢ more than AKQT.

You do get a full house holding AK one time in 900 and flushes one time in 99 when the fifth card is unsuited with the AK and one time in 136 when the fifth card IS of the same suit as the AK. These are not big numbers. The pay schedules matter, but unless you get into a Bonus Poker game that is so bad that two pair only returns 1-for-1, you always prefer AK.

How much you get for two pair doesn’t affect the value of AKQT because the only hands you can get when you hold those five cards are a straight or a high pair. From AK, however, you end up with two pair every 22.8 times. Since that means an extra $5 every 22.8 times when you get one unit more, changing the value of two pair from 2-for-1 to 1-for-1 is worth 22¢.

Close readers might remember that in 9/6 Jacks or Better when the low card was unsuited, AK was only worth 21¢ more than AKQT, so why wouldn’t changing the value of two pair change the play? The answer is that in the games where two pair receives 1-for-1, the value of 4-of-a-kinds (especially aces) is much higher than the $125 you get in Jacks or Better. Even though you only only have a 1-in-16,215 chance to get four aces holding AK and drawing three cards, the difference in the payout from $125 to $800 is worth about 4¢.

In 9/6 Double Double Bonus, for example, holding AK is better in the first hand by 4¢ and AKQT is better in the second hand by about 4.5¢. To me, these numbers are plenty big enough that I’m going to pay attention to the suit of the small card in these hands. Whether they are big enough for you to reach the same conclusion is a decision you’re going to have to make for yourself.

The third category where two pair returns 1-for-1 and straights return 5-for-1 is really just the best versions of Double Bonus Poker. Since the straights pay 25% more than they do in most otherwise similar video poker games, it should be no surprise that you hold AKQT on both hands.

There are a few games that will not fit these rules exactly, and variations on games like Ultimate X, but in general these rules apply widely.

I picked AK in this case. I could easily have chosen AQ or AJ with exactly the same results. All three combinations are equal.

The rules for KQ, KJ, and QJ are different than the ones given here. Perhaps I’ll discuss them in another blog someday.

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A Question from a Reader

Many of you know that, in addition to being posted on bobdancer.com, my columns are published on the gamblingwithanedge.com website. This site allows for readers to post comments. One recent comment by someone who used the name “Jerry,” read as follows:

 

This is off-topic but I wanted to get your opinion on VP for Winners. I have been playing a particular game at a particular casino for over two years now with excellent results on about two million in coin-in on two years of win-loss statements. I have a degree in math so I know that this is a significant sample space. The game is rated at 99.256% on VPW. My results have been 97.133% (without handpay & freeplay); 100.925% (with handpay); 102.297% (with handplay & freeplay). Since this game includes a variable multiplier, is it possible that it has been under-rated by VPW?

 

The only game with variable multipliers on VPW is Super Times Pay. The return on 9/6 Double Double Bonus is indeed 99.256%, so that is the game I assume Jerry is talking about.

Jerry makes several statements. Let’s look at them one by one. First, he’s using Win-Loss statements as an accurate reflection of his actual play. Over the years I’ve found less than 10% of such statements to closely track with my own daily figures. Assuming that one from an unnamed casino provides accurate information is not an assumption I’m willing to make.

Second, is $2 million a significant sample space? It probably would be if you were talking about quarter Ten Play. It probably wouldn’t be if you were talking dollars or higher.

Remember multipliers only come about in this game every 15 hands or so. And the ones that do come about are heavily weighted towards the “lower end,” meaning 2x and 3x, while the higher-end multipliers 8x and 10x are fairly rare. According to the Wizard of Odds website, these are the frequencies for each of the multipliers:

Super Times Pay — Actual Multiplier Probabilities

MUTLIPLIER PROBABILITY EXPECTED
2 17% 0.34
3 33% 0.99
4 16% 0.64
5 24% 1.2
8 6% 0.48
10 4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.05

Adding the top two multipliers together, they occur 10% of the time, meaning every 150 hands or so. The mini-jackpot in DDB, called aces with a kicker, occurs slightly less than once every 16,000 hands. Remembering that the big multipliers only occur every 150 hands and each hand costs $6 to play, this means “one cycle” of aces with a kicker in this game is 16,000 * 150 * $6 = $14,400,000. Calling one seventh of one cycle significant is a misuse of the term. It might be a significant amount of play to Jerry, but mathematically it is insignificant.

STP comes in Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play. In addition to aces with a kicker, dealt quads and/or royals are important as to whether or not they come with a multiplier. Being fortunate to get dealt deuces, for example, with or without a kicker, with an 8x multiplier in effect, is going to give you a much higher positive result than average numbers predict.

I don’t know what big hands Jerry received, but I strongly suspect they included big hands with big multipliers. This is called “positive variance,” meaning that in the time Jerry has played, he has been luckier than average. It happens. Congratulations!

Jerry also mentions free play given by this particular casino. This is definitely not part of the VPW calculation but is an important consideration in the overall return of the game.

The calculation of the value of STP is fairly straightforward for a computer program. The Wizard of Odds site lists the return on this game as 99.26%, which is consistent with VPW’s 99.256% given that they are displayed with a different number of significant digits. I trust the figures of VPW and suggest that you should too.

Going forward, Jerry, you should assume your results will be 99.256% (assuming you play perfectly — which is also far from a given for most players). The free play will be additional. Your actual results over a period as short as $2 million in coin-in will not be the same as that, but that’s the best guess going forward.

Do NOT assume that your 100.925% results will continue. It COULD equal that in the short term, but it’s unlikely and you won’t know for sure until you play the hands.

I assure you that there will be other games and/or casinos where your results will indicate negative variance. It’s just part of the game.

Your figures imply that free play at that casino is 1.3%. Possible, I suppose, but pretty rare. A lot of us would like to know where a casino pays that much on a game that returns 99.256%. Also realize that a 2.3% edge on $2 million of coin-in implies you are ahead $46,000 at this casino. Many casinos will restrict you, figuring you are “too good.”

At most casinos you will be on their radar. If their free play is actually 1.3%, even on a 99.256% game, the casino is giving away the store. Eventually they will wake up. If you are someone who has been hammering this game, you will be the first one eliminated.

Players differ on how to react to such a good play. Some play as hard as they can because they figure it’s going to go away pretty soon and they better milk it while they can. Others believe that if they take small nibbles out of the game, it will last longer and give them more profit in the long run. You’re going to have to make your own call on this.