Posted on 1 Comment

The Type of Hands that are Most Difficult to Play

I’ve had a lot of discussions with “Kal.” Kal played successful blackjack for years and is relatively new to video poker. We bring different “beating the house” skills to the table and enjoy learning from each other.

Recently Kal told me, “on hands where three or more relevant combinations are in the same hand, my accuracy rate is much lower than on hands where only two combinations exist.” This seems sort of obvious when you think about it, but it isn’t the way I’ve been studying.

In the past year, I’ve learned four new games as opportunities change. When I’m trying to learn a new game, I frequently use WinPoker (yes, I still use that product on occasion) and set “Hard Hands” to 0.02 or so. This deals me hands where the difference between the top play and the second-best play have a EV difference of 2¢ or less for the 5-coin dollar player. I figure that if I can learn the hard hands, the easy hands surely won’t be a problem.

Sometimes just being close in EV isn’t the same as being difficult. In 9-6 Jacks or Better, for example, from AJ542 “rainbow,” the best play (AJ) is worth less than a penny more (for a 5-coin dollar player) than the second-best play (J by itself). For those of us who have learned the rule “two high cards, suited or not, are ALWAYS preferred to one high card in this game,” this is a no-brainer type of hand, even though the difference between the top two hands is fairly small.

What Kal was talking about is different. He’s talking about hands such as: Ah Kh Qc Tc 8c, where you need to consider the 2-card royal flush ‘AK’ (the correct play in 9-6 Jacks or Better by 18¢), the 3-card straight flush ‘QT8’ (the correct play in 9-7 Triple Double Bonus by 6¢), and the 4-card inside straight AKQT (the correct play in 9-7 Double Bonus by 25¢).

In none of these three games would this hand show up when I was checking for hands where the top two plays were within 2¢ of each other. And since each play was correct in one of the games, and a number of players use the same strategy for all games, it’s a 100% lock that some players will misplay the hand in one or more of the games. Since I wouldn’t be concentrating on this particular hand, it’s possible that I personally would mess it up. My accuracy rate is very high if I have recently reviewed a particular game. But if I haven’t, and I’ve played a lot of different games recently, sometimes I’m not 100% positive of the correct play.

In the Triple Double Bonus game it’s a “penalty card” hand, because you play Ah Kh Qc Tc 8c differently than you play Ah Jh Qc Tc 8c, where ‘AJ’ is the better play by less than a penny. A play this close would definitely show up during my practice of hard hands, but I’d need to be on my toes to realize that the play was different depending on whether the lower heart was a jack or a king. It would be easy to reach the wrong conclusion — at a rather major cost of 25¢.

In “Video Poker for Winners,” the computer software I helped design, the hands discussed here show up regularly when you have the “Level of Difficulty” set to “Advanced.” When designing which types of hands should be displayed when this feature was turned, I included a number of possibilities where you had 3-card straight flushes of various stripes mixed and matched with inside straights of various stripes. Many other combinations were included as well.

While there were dozens of criteria used to determine what the advanced hands should be, “dozens” isn’t very many. You’ll find you’ll get the same types of hands listed over and over again.

Still, the difficult hands presented to you in WinPoker are different from the difficult hands presented by Video Poker for Winners. Which is why owning and practicing with two or more software products is advisable. Although there is a lot of overlap in doing the basic things, each computer trainer has features the other ones don’t. Considering the money many of us run through the machines every year, the price of these products is small compared to the potential value.

Posted on Leave a comment

The Cookie Jar Technique

There was a very lucrative promotion at the South Point this past July. To be eligible for the greatest reward, you needed to do two things:

  1. Play $60K coin-in (video poker) or $30K (slots) in May and you receive what they call the A+ mailer. For players with a reasonable bankroll, this wasn’t that difficult. The casino has the best video poker in the country (with the possible exception for 25¢ players who play FPDW with 0.25% free play and no other benefits at the Palms). The 0.30% cash club at casino makes a lot of games exceed 100% and the at-least $200-per-month in the A+ mailers is an attractive incentive.
  2. Avoid the purge. A number of players at the South Point were excluded from the slot club this spring. Most of these players played at the $60K+ level.

For all players at the South Point in July, earning 200 points five days a week awarded you a spin on a virtual wheel. Rewards ranged from 1,000 free points (worth a buck) to $50 in either free play or a Chevron gas card. For A+ players, however, it was always $50 free play or gas card. It appeared to be random as to which of two prizes you received, but you definitely got one of the two.

It didn’t take long for the A+ players to recognize the pattern. Show up every day between Sunday and Thursday, play $200 through on an even game (99.73% Deuces Wild with a 0.30% cash card was the game of choice for many) and get a $50 bonus. Do it all 20 eligible days and receive a $1,000 bonus that month. Most players who lived in the area were not too busy to show up and collect the bounty.

A friend of mine, “T.J.,” came in every day. On the days he collected a $50 gas card he was delighted. On the days he “only” got $50 in free play, T.J. was irritated. Even though the high percentage of players who weren’t A+ would love to get as much as $50 in free play, getting this award instead of the gas cards pissed him off.

I didn’t understand this. Although there are tax considerations that make a difference, to me fifty bucks is fifty bucks. This was a 25% bonus on playing $200 on an even game and I was delighted to get it. I know that the $50 free play isn’t guaranteed to become $50 cash, you get slot club points on your free play there (unlike certain other casinos) so you’re playing a 100% game. Sometimes the $50 free play becomes only $25, but sometimes it becomes $200. Over the course of a year, the money earned from the total amount of free play awarded comes out reasonably close to that amount in cash.

Not to T.J. He segregates “gambling bankroll” from “money to live on” to a higher degree than anyone else I’ve met (although, frankly, I haven’t had a lot of “how do you manage your money” conversations with a lot of gamblers.) When he moved to Vegas five years ago, he bought a house (paying cash), set $10,000 aside for a gambling bankroll, and vowed that if he ever lost that bankroll he was done gambling for the year. If he lost, he’d place another $10K into his gambling account the following January. All other expenses came out of savings. He has no other source of income and it’s going to be a few years until his retirement money kicks in.

As it turns out, T.J.’s bankroll has expanded to more than $30,000. His skills are considerably better than they were when he moved to Vegas. For the stakes he plays in the games he plays, there is essentially no chance he can lose his bankroll. Fifty dollars in free play would go towards his bankroll, and basically his bankroll is in fine shape already.

The gas cards, however, do not go to bankroll the way T.J. keeps score. Every gas card means $50 he gets to keep in his savings account. It bugs the heck out of him to take money out of his savings account, and gas cards let him keep the money in his savings account longer.

There are a lot of people with regular jobs who use a number of cookie jars to help them budget. A certain percentage of every paycheck goes into the rent cookie jar, or the car payment cookie jar, or the vacation fund cookie jar, etc. If they’ve budgeted correctly, at the end of the month, there is enough in each of the jars to cover the bills. I never used this technique, but I know a lot of folks who did.

My personal technique is different. I have funds in a safety deposit box somewhere and extra money in a checking account. Whether the money comes from jackpots or from writing this column is largely irrelevant to me. (Accounting-wise these are different, but I’m not talking about that here.) I need much larger cash-on-hand than most people because my daily gambling swings exceed $20,000 one way or the other probably twenty times each year. Although there are big swings, over time the sum of the funds has grown. Periodically I take a portion of these funds and invest it in the stock market or elsewhere. I don’t have tags on the money telling me exactly how much came from where.

T.J. appears to be using the cookie jar technique to deal with gambling bankroll versus his “everything-else” bankroll. This leads to some unusual conclusions (from my point of view), but it seems to work well for him.