I’m going to talk about a friend named “George” in this article. George is actually a synthesis of three different people. I’ve incorporated certain words and ideas from each of them into George.
George plays about $3,000,000 a year of quarter 9/6 Jacks or Better (JoB) Ten Play at the Palms. He plays about $7,000 per hour through the machine, so that much play requires about eight hours a week at that casino. Or, more likely, George plays sixteen hours a week twice a month with no play at all for the rest of the month.
His expected loss is $13,800 per year which is partially offset by $7500 annually in free play and a total of about $4,000 in monthly mailers. Additionally, George receives perhaps $6,000 in gift cards, as well as food coupons and weekly-or-so gifts. There are also drawings in which he has had his named called a couple of times during the past year for a total of $1,200.
If you just compare the expected loss with the value of the free play earned and the mailer money, George should have lost $2,300. The problem is that George has been losing closer to $5,000 a year at the Palms (which isn’t terrible, considering that, although George doesn’t value the gift cards and food comps at face value, they are surely worth something). I suspect the primary reason for George losing more than expected is that he doesn’t play accurately, especially after long hours, and even more so when he’s losing. He gets very discouraged when he is losing and he appears not to concentrate as much when he is behind. I don’t know this for sure—I haven’t sat next to him for an entire day evaluating his play. That would be an awkward strain on our friendship and just the fact that I was there watching him would likely change his results.
On that same bank of machines, some players play 9-7 Double Bonus (DB). Whenever one of these DB players hits four aces, it pays $200 rather than the “paltry” $31.25 George gets. It pains George to see that others are getting more than him for an identical hand. If the DB player is dealt 3s, he receives $1,000. George “only” gets $312.50 for the same hand.
George believes that if he gets behind at JoB, he can’t really catch up unless he hits a royal or two. George also maintains that he is under-royaled and that most other players are luckier than he is.
When I tell him that he more than makes up the difference between the payouts on 4-of-a-kinds with the payouts he receives on two pair, George simply doesn’t believe it. I told him that I thought on those quarter Ten Play machines, the two pair in JoB would pay him $700 more each hour than he would receive for two pair in DB. George didn’t think it was anywhere near that. We were both wrong. The actual difference is more than $977 per hour (assuming $7,000 coin-in per hour.)
I decided to look at the differences in hourly return on the two games. (I have included a chart later in this article that compares the two games and the hourly return for each hand based on $7,000 coin-in per hour). George will tell you that this is a theoretical amount and he believes in his actual results more than in any theory.
With royal flushes you get, on average, $22 less per hour playing DB than you do playing JoB. This isn’t a surprise. From a hand like A♥ K♥ Q♥ 4♥ 2♣, you hold AKQ in JoB and AKQ4 in DB. It’s a 1-in-1081 chance to collect a royal in JoB when you do this. It’s 0-in-1081 in DB.
Straight flushes return almost the same amount in both games.
Four-of-a-kinds give you a lot more in DB. In JoB, these hands return $413 while in DB, you get a whopping $1,100. This figures because you get $62.50, $100, or $200 for the three different 4-of-a-kind categories in DB and in JoB, you only get $31.25 for any 4-of-a-kind. If you just concentrate on these hands, it’s easy to conclude that DB pays more.
You get $54 more from full houses in JoB than you do in DB. There are a number of types of hands played differently that lead to this. Here are several examples of hands played differently in each game, where one of the plays leads to a greater possibility of full houses than the other. This list is meant to be suggestive — not exhaustive:
For straights, DB returns $211 more than JoB, simply because straights pay 25 instead of 20 and, because of this, you try for straights more frequently in DB.
For 3-of-a-kinds, the two games return very close to the same amount. You get slightly more in JoB simply because you start with more pairs.
It’s the return on two pair where you get the biggest difference. One reason is that two pair returns twice as much in JoB. Another related reason is that since two pair pays so little in DB, you go for a lot more straights in that game, holding such combinations as unsuited QJ98 and 2356 rather than QJ and drawing five new cards respectively.
Getting your money back for a pair of jacks or better pays $125 more in JoB — simply because you start by holding more single high pairs, while in DB, you often hold suited high cards with flush kickers (to take advantage of the higher return for flushes) which takes a possible card away from getting a high pair.
The bottom line (for me) is that you lose $31 more per hour playing DB rather than JoB on these machines. Were I a Ten Play quarter player on these machines, the decision would be easy. Show me the money!
Some players argue that JoB is too boring. If that were George’s argument, I would have no beef with his thought processes. Every person has to decide what’s interesting and what’s not. But George’s argument is that DB makes more financial sense for him to play than JoB. And that argument, whether he agrees with me or not, is just plain wrong.
We could have done the same exercise for 9/6 Double Double Bonus — which costs an extra $10 or so more per hour than DB and $41 per hour more than JoB. Players like the extra excitement, but most don’t accurately consider how much money their leaving behind to pay for that excitement.