In Week 2 of my free video poker classes at the South Point, I usually teach beginning 9/6 Double Double Bonus Poker. Many of my readers wouldn’t be caught dead playing such a game. It returns only 98.98% when played well and there are plenty of better games around, at least in Las Vegas.
Still, players DO play this game regularly, so they might as well learn how to play it correctly. It might surprise you to know that in 2017, I played more coin-in on this game than any other! (It sure surprises me! If somebody would have bet me this five years ago, I would have bet against it. Of course, had I made a big enough bet, that would have affected the odds and I wouldn’t have played it more than any other!) While DDB is the most popular video poker game in the country, I didn’t play it because I particularly liked it. I played because with certain combinations of slot club benefits and promotions, this was the game that made the most sense to play.
In the class a few weeks ago, I was explaining that you NEVER hold a suited ace-ten in this game. One lady, who apparently goes for the royal every chance she gets, wanted to know how I could justify not going for the royal. The hand in question was A♠ T♠ 8♥ 7♣ 6♦.
As is my practice, I put this hand on Video Poker for Winners and displayed the results on the screen in front of the class. The display showed in Table 1:
[table “74” not found /]
After class I wondered if I could display these numbers in a way that would make more sense.I said holding the ace by itself was worth 21¢ more to the five-coin dollar player, and I pointed to the column that said holding the ace was worth $2.346 and holding the AT was worth $2.133. The lady nodded blankly, which told me she believed what I said, but these were just numbers. The numbers didn’t mean anything to her.
[table “73” not found /]
In this table, you have the value of each combination in dollars and cents (and tenths of cents.) That is, the chance you get a high pair (most frequently AA, but you can get JJ, QQ, or KK as well) is worth $1.274 when you hold the ace by itself but only $0.911 when you hold AT. This is a difference of $0.363. When you think about it, it’s not too surprising that you get fewer high pairs when you hold a ten in the hand. It both makes fewer “empty spaces” with which to make a high pair and when you pair up the ten, it’s not a high pair.
If you go through the differences on the bottom line, you’ll see that the two biggest advantages of holding AT (namely you can get a royal flush and you have a better chance of getting a flush) are worth almost a quarter apiece. But you lose in most of the other categories.
This chart is a little surprising to many players. After all, did you really think that the amount you get from high pairs is worth about half of the value of holding either the ace or AT? When you see these starting positions, you’re thinking four aces or maybe a royal flush. You’re not thinking of a measly high pair.
Don’t even think about trying to memorize these numbers. They are highly dependent on the exact five cards chosen. If one of the other cards is a spade, it greatly affects how much the flush draw is worth. If one of the other cards is a 2, 3, or 4, it affects both the chances for a straight, the chances for four aces with a kicker, and four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker.
Is it useful to see how much each combination is worth in dollars and cents rather than in the number of occurrences? Maybe. Opinions will vary.
But if you think it’s useful, it’s already included in the Video Poker for Winners software. When you analyze a hand, you have a choice between “Show Possible Outcomes,” which gives you the information in Table 1, and “Show Coins Out,” which gives you the information in Table 2.
I didn’t know this was already included in the software until I looked while writing this article. I’m sure many of you didn’t know it either.
Back when computers were coal- and steam-powered, I often had to rely on my brain for such strategy decisions. To me then, this would have seemed like a trivial question. Holding the suited 10 with the Ace only VERY slightly increases your chance of getting a flush or straight, and makes a royal only ridiculously unlikely rather than impossible. In return for these tiny increases, you’re giving up one chance in four of pairing the Ace, as well as reducing the possibility of drawing JJ/QQ/KK. Thus, I don’t need to calculate this question.
I realize that the “intuitive” approach doesn’t always work and that some plays are counterintuitive, one example coming to mind is on 10/7 DB, holding Axx suited rather than just the A, a play I had to force myself to make at first (and let’s not forget, on that game, the infamous 4FL>3RF, which can cause cerebral hemorrhaging). But you’re not always going to have a computer with you when you have to make these decisions. I think the real value of the chart is that it shows just how costly sabotaging your chances of getting a high pair (and a push) really is. Newbie players tend to focus on getting the big payoff (which is why crap 9/6 DDB is so popular). For whatever reason, I, since most VP hands are losers, have always had my mindset toward recovering the most value from my bad hands–most dealt hands, you should be THRILLED to wind up with a push. It’s like blackjack in a way–the true skill is in knowing how to play the 13s, 14s. etc.
Different people definitely have different goals. A lot of people just want the thrill and fame of hitting a royal flush, these people would be better served with a royal only strategy (5RF>4RF>3RF>2RF>1RF>draw5). This strategy is the fastest way to get a royal, true it costs more per royal, but that just makes getting the royal more valuable, right? If you can afford it and your time is limited, why not? Other people want to see how much money they can actually get back from their initial buy-in, these people are probably better served by a min-cost-royal strategy that typically features strategies like 4FL>3RF. It’s typical on slots to discount the top pay since it’s a long shot, so in vp that would mean setting the RF=0 and optimizing the return of the other hands. You still get royals if you play enough, but you’re not counting on them, they are just rare extras. And some people, like Bob, want to maximize the long term theoretical EV of each individual hand in isolation, these people are better served by maxEV per hand strategy including every possible penalty card situation down to the hundreth of a penny. It all depends what your goals are, if you know your goals you can determine an optimal strategy.
With a high progressive (DDB or any) I hold the suited AT. Otherwise, just the Ace. Suited AT gives me heartburn in any case.
I appreciate what Bob wrote several columns ago in response to a question of how many time he regretted what he held, how many Royals did he (Bob) think he missed out on. Bob said forget about it, he doesn’t sit there and stare in despair, he just plays on. That was good advice for me. Now I don’t look so hard, just move on. Mostly what you thought ‘might’ have been there…well, it might have but probably not. And not a thing in the world you can do about it. Thanks, Bob.
“After class I wondered if I could display these numbers in a way that would make more sense.I said holding the ace by itself was worth 21¢ more to the five-coin dollar player, and I pointed to the column that said holding the ace was worth $2.346 and holding the AT was worth $2.133. The lady nodded blankly, which told me she believed what I said, but these were just numbers. The numbers didn’t mean anything to her.”
Answer from a relative newcomer to gambling. I play blackjack. Couldn’t wrap my head around why people objected to 6/5 BJ. I was playing low stakes. 1 dollar machines. 5 dollar machines. didn’t bet very high. If you got BJ on a 1 dollar machine did you really mope about losing 50cents? No. We don’t value 50cents. Then I started multiplying the numbers out. I realized that I was literally handing the casino hundreds and eventually thousands of dollars due to this.
Umm no thanks.
Same here. 23 cents doesn’t register when you have $100 or $1000 in your hand. What you need to do is ask, how many thousands of hands do you play? Now multiply that 23 cents by that thousands. (or whatever metric is relevant for VP). Now would you rather have $2300 or$ 2100? I don’t know too many people that will let the $200 (or $2000, or $20,000) go, because they can see the *utility* in that number.
I’m wondering (according to your VPfW display) how it’s possible to get a SF holding only the Ace of Spades and throwing the ten of spades away?
To answer my own question, realized a minute later that it’s drawing the 2 thru 5 of spades
This column is an outstanding analysis for a beginner player to look at to see why Ace and 10 is not held, well done! It is probably a question that anyone getting into the game will ask.
Although SouthPoint has a nice selection of games, I wonder if anyone brings up DDB Aces and Faces, something that pays out better since high cards are held most of the time and will benefit more from completing a quad.
In the meantime, I need to catch up on past columns.
The funny thing is this. The masses that play DDB don’t give a doodoo about 9/6 or any of that jazz. They ONLY care about those aces! So seeing ANYONE hold AT suited in this game is an oddity.
I agree that DDB players tend to be insensitive to pay schedules.
My experience (without solid data) is that DDB players are less knowledgeable than average and MORE likely to go for AT. So I dispute what you say, but I can’t prove it.
Well, if you observe the average DDB player for a few minutes, assuming you can do so without throwing up, you’ll see the genius play of throwing away two pair, such as keeping only the kings from KK55x. The answer you always get when you ask them why they did that is “I never get the full house anyway.” My reply is often “THAT’S BECAUSE YOU ALWAYS THROW AWAY YOUR TWO PAIR!!!!”
The really disgusting thing is to see one of these players bitching and moaning about how cruel the machine is being to them and how they never win. Then, of course, they light up a pigarette. I’m opposed to what Bob said about educating such people so that they at least play the game correctly. I prefer to tell them that red Queens are unlucky and they should always throw them away, or that you should never draw to a flush because you’ll always miss them anyway. The more of these people playing the machines, the longer the good pay schedules will last. (“Video Poker for Morons”–only 49 cents plus $28.00 shipping and handling.)
Speaking of ditching two pair, just today, I watched a guy dump 3’s from KK335 on JoB!