I recently approached the four Quick Quads machines at the South Point. There was a lady I didn’t recognize sitting on the far right (call it Chair 4) and I rather arbitrarily sat down in Chair 1. Because of my classes, I’m recognized by far more people than I am able to remember, so whenever someone says “Hi” in a casino, I respond in a friendly manner. But this woman said nothing, which was fine.
After a while, a man sat down in Chair 2 and began playing. The lady then asked him how to play a hand — specifically whether from 442 to hold just the pair of fours or the pair of fours with the two kicker. She said she thought the strategy sheet she had at home told her to hold 44A or 443, but never 442 (if she was playing the Double Double Bonus version of the game she was exactly correct.) The guy told her that all three combinations were the same in his book. Plus, he added, he just held 22A and ended up with a 222AA Quick Quad. Surely the math is the same for 22A as it is for 442. (He jumped right in and began to instruct. He didn’t even ask what game she was playing. Perhaps he didn’t know that there are strategy differences among Bonus Poker Quick Quads, Double Double Bonus Quick Quads, and Triple Double Bonus Quick Quads.)
This was a mixture of correct and incorrect advice, even assuming he knew that she was playing the Double Double Bonus version. Although I’m very fluent at explaining the nuances of this game (after all, I’ve written a booklet on it, A Quick Guide to Quick Quads, which is downloadable for free from www.videopoker.com/quickquads, plus I’ve taught a 3-hour course on the game about 10 times, plus I’ve reviewed the game strategies at least 50 times prior to playing), joining uninvited into someone else’s conversation is neither polite nor is it always well received. So I stayed quiet.
Since this is supposed to be an educational column, let me explain why you hold 443 but not 442 when you’re playing 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads. Although it’s not exactly the same problem, it’s easier to explain comparing 4443 and 4442. From both combinations, there is one remaining 4 in the deck that yields fours with a kicker — which is worth 800 in regular DDB and 1000 in DDB Quick Quads.
In addition to drawing the fourth four, from 4443 there are four aces that give you a 400-coin Quick Quad and three 3s that give you a full house. From 4442, there are only three deuces that give you a 400-coin Quick Quad and no cards that give you a full house. Because of the extra cards available to give you a Quick Quad or a full house, 4443 is more valuable than 4442. For very similar logic, 443 is superior to 442. In fact 443 is more valuable than 44 by itself and 442 is less valuable and should not be held.
The odds of completing a Quick Quad from 22A (a combination which is eligible to be held) are identical to those of completing a Quick Quad from 442 (which is NOT an eligible combination.) If you’re not used to thinking about Quick Quads, this makes little sense. After all, in regular DDB, 44 and 22 are exactly equivalent combinations. In Quick Quads, however, 44 is worth more than 22 because you can earn more Quick Quads from 44 (namely, 4443A, 44422) than you can from 22 (only 222AA. 22444 can also be obtained, but that’s a much rarer possibility, and is exactly offset by the chances of getting 44888 from 44). So in terms of expected value, from high to low:
443 = 44A
44
442 = 22A
22
Even though 442 and 22A are equal in value, when we compare 442 to 44 on this list, we see that 44 is more valuable so we just hold 44. When we compare 22A with 22, we see that we hold 22A.
This guy was arguing that since he just held 22A and it converted, his Quick Quad proved it was the right play. This, of course, was total nonsense. Whether or not it worked any specific time before has nothing to do with whether i’s a correct play.
As I wrote earlier, I kept all of this to myself. I was in a bit of a hurry that day and didn’t wish to be dragged into an extended discussion.
So the lady held 442 and didn’t convert that particular time. That was not a big deal (at least not to me). You usually don’t convert from these combinations. Consistently making the right play works over time, but on any particular day, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Unfortunately for her, she was convinced that she had found her guru.
Over the next 15 minutes, she asked for his help possibly six or eight times. The guy liked being considered an expert and he happily told her how to play. He was correct more often than not, but he gave her incorrect advice at least twice.
Had I intervened, I might still be there. That’s a bullet happily dodged. And there might have been hard feelings. Someone who thinks he knows what he’s talking about usually doesn’t wish to be contradicted. Sometimes the “expert” is open to a discussion and sometimes he isn’t. And if he wished to debate the subject, that would have taken more time and energy than I wished to devote to that task. And while readers of my column are generally willing to concede that I know what I’m talking about when it comes to video poker strategy, not everyone out there knows or cares about my expertise. Plus, he might have been attracted to this woman and hoped for some sort of future relationship. If he thought I was cutting in on his sex life, there might have been some testosterone-fueled anger generated.
Finally, while I’m willing to write and teach people who wish to learn more about video poker, I’m generally compensated for this when it happens. The best education, in my opinion, happens away from the machine where you can thoughtfully discuss the various possibilities and place things in the proper context. When you try to learn by discussing whichever hand is dealt next, it’s harder to remember. And it’s also more difficult to pitch the discussion at the right level. The discussion you have with a beginner is far different than the discussion that you have with an intermediate or an expert. And it can take quite a bit of probing to discover exactly how much someone knows — and most people don’t wish to reveal their level of expertise even before you answer their question!
When I am playing video poker and people I don’t know ask me how to play a hand, I will usually answer one or two questions, but then I explain that I’m working and I need to concentrate on what I’m doing (which is true). Usually people are polite enough to thank me, apologize, and back off. If they persist in asking questions, I explain that I’m available for private consultation at $250 per hour, but I’m not available “on demand.” At this point I sometimes get told that I’m a rude, money-grubbing SOB. That makes it easier for me to hold my tongue and teach no more that day. When people say such things, I figure it speaks far more about them than it does about me.
In addition, I have very mixed feelings about educating EVERYBODY. For the machines to last, casinos need to make money off of them. If everyone played as well as I do, the machines would certainly be downgraded. I don’t mind teaching serious students who are willing to study hard. But there are very few such students. For players not willing to study, I’m perfectly content to let them lose their money to the casino. It is not my purpose in life to save people from themselves!