Fearless Oscar forecast

If you feared an Emilia Perez sweep after its staggering 13 Academy Award nominations, fret not. This year’s Oscars looks like it’s going to be one of those years where there’s a little something for everybody, unlike last year’s Oppenheimer juggernaut. Indeed, Emilia Perez has gone into a spectacular odds eclipse and will be hard-pressed to take home more than one or two little gold men. Instead, in a moment of head-shaking WTF, the odds-on favorite for Best Picture is …

Anora?!?!? Yup, this art-house version of Pretty Woman is -330 at DraftKings, rivaled only by The Brutalist (+400). However, in an interesting development, Edward Berger‘s Conclave has snuck down to +700. Conclave has been the sleeper of the year, a surprise hit with the grownup audience. Who knew that selecting a pope would prove to be such hot stuff? (BTW, get well, Pope Francis. We need you.) Nobody else has a prayer. Should win: I’m Still Here (+8,000) or The Substance (+10,000). Will win: Anora. Sigh.

Best Actress: Playing a sex goddess who looks back in anger, Demi Moore has been enjoying a justifiable triumph in a art-imitates-life role. But at -150 she’s got only a tentative lead on newcomer Mikey Madison (Anora, +120). If you fancy a huge upset, the buzz has been deservedly great for Fernanda Torres as the wife of a political prisoner in Walter Salles‘ I’m Still Here. At +1,400 she’s the prize amongst long shots. After toxic social-media texts came to light, Emilia Perez protagonist Karla Sofia Gascon (+3,500) is shit out of luck. Should win: Torres. Will win: Moore.

Best Actor: Academy voters are reportedly too long in the tooth to last through all 3.5 hours of The Brutalist, the pikers. But its Adrien Brody (-280) is the current favorite for Best Actor and rightly so: The Brutalist is Brody and Brody is The Brutalist. His one serious rival is mumbling Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown, +175), although Chalamet is not worthy to carry Brody’s overcoat. Still, as an oblique thank-you for fattening Tinseltown’s coffers twice in one year, Chalamet might nab the castrated statuette. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) is a hopeless long shot at +2,800. Why? The Academy is NEVER going to give someone a prize for playing Donald Trump. ‘Nuff said. Should win: Brody. Will win: Chalamet.

Best Supporting Actress: The runaway favorite here is Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez, -1,400). We love Saldaña but her inclusion here has been decried as “category fraud.” If that works against her, the likeliest beneficiary is stick figure Ariana Grande (Wicked, +600). Giving Grande an Oscar would be a traveshamockery of the first water but stupider things have happened. (Well, AS stupid.) We’re going the pessimist route here, as no one ever went broke underestimating the Academy. Should win: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown, +2,500). Will win: Grande. Missing in Action: The Substance‘s Margaret Qualley (not nominated).

Best Supporting Actor: Giving a Culkin spawn an Academy Award seems like a harbinger of the Apocalypse but Kieran Culkin is the prohibitive, -2,000 favorite for A Real Pain, which has drawn for him—no kidding—comparisons to Marlon Brando. Egad! Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown, +900) has an outside shot for his luminous portrayal of Pete Seeger. (A good one too, having once seen Seeger in concert.) Participation trophies for everyone else. Should win: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist: +1,600). Will win: Culkin.

Best Director: Perhaps self-consciously striving to make a masterpiece is working against Brady Corbet (The Brutalist, +100). Despite his precarious, -140 lead, Sean Baker (Anora) seems locked in after his Directors Guild win. Should win: Coralie Fargeat (The Substance, +2,500). Will win: Baker.

Best Original Screenplay: If the Academy truly valued originality, this would go hands down to The Substance (+500). However, Anora is favored. Again (-500). A Real Pain (+800) has an outside chance. Should win: The Substance. Will win: Anora.

Best Adapted Screenplay: This is Conclave‘s consolation prize (-1,100), its award for doing much better than expected at the box office. Besides, the Academy likes Edward Berger (he of the All Quiet on the Western Front remake). Nickel Boys (+1,000), Emilia Perez (+1,000) and A Complete Unknown (+1,200) appear to be canceling each other out, and nobody can work up much enthusiasm for Sing Sing (+2,000). Should win: Conclave. Will win: Conclave.

Visual Effects: Dune, Part Two (-900) appears to have this nailed down and deservedly so. Nothing else we saw came close in that respect, especially not the sub-video game rendering of a chimp in Better Man (+2,500). And why is Alien: Romulus (+3,500) even here when its VFX had to be retooled for home video? (Too bad they didn’t retool that whole picture.) Should win: Dune. Will win: Dune.

Cinematography: The Brutalist (-310) is a puzzling favorite here. Heavy weather was made of it being shot in VistaVision, the greatest of all widescreen processes. But it was lensed in a soft-edged, close-in, shallow-focused style that negated VistaVision’s extraordinary depth of field. Perverse. Should win: Dune, Part Two (+330). Will win: The Brutalist. Because gimmicks.

Editing: If Conclave wins (-150), it could portend a massive Best Picture upset, as the best-edited film usually takes the top prize. Which may be why Anora is hanging tough at +150. The Brutalist (+600) is also in the running. Interminable Wicked (+1,400) and not-exactly-concise Emilia Perez (+2,800) are not. Indeed, nominating sluggish Wicked for best editing may be someone’s idea of a sick joke. Should win: The Brutalist. Will win: Anora.

Costuming: Unsurprisingly, the ostentatiously costumed Wicked (-1,400) is way ahead. But the cassocks and wimples of Conclave are in the running at +600. Should win: Gladiator II (+3,500). Will win: Wicked, because the Academy has to give it something.

Makeup & Hairstyling: The Substance (-1,400). If you’ve seen it you’ll know why. Should win, will win. Nobody else need compete. Next!

Production Design: The in-your-face, “Look, Ma, I’m designing!” stylings of Wicked (-475) will probably prevail over the subtler The Brutalist (+600). Too bad. Conclave (+700) might sneak through here, too.

Original Score: The Brutalist (-360) ought to take this home but don’t sleep on Wicked (+1,600) for the simple reason that simple-minded Academy voters will probably think they’re voting for the songs rather than the music than came in between. See also: The Little Mermaid and Beauty and the Beast.

Original Song: Damned if we can remember ANY of the songs from Emilia Perez, so we don’t give a rat’s fart whether the award goes to “El Mal” (-310) or the comparably anodyne “Mi Camino” (+500). But we have a soft spot for Sir Elton John and his “Never Too Late” (from the eponymous film) is our sentimental choice to pull an upset (+800) here.

Best International Feature: Suspense! With one week to go, DraftKings has I’m Still Here and Emilia Perez deadlocked at -110. Our best guess (and it’s more than conjecture) is that the Academy does a repeat of previous years—remember the Green Book vs. Roma throwdown?—and gives Emilia Perez the little castrato in lieu of Best Picture. Should win: I’m Still Here. Will win: Emilia Perez.

Best Animated Feature: Go figure. Why on earth is the Disneyfied, manipulative and utterly conventional The Wild Robot (-230) the odds-on favorite? Is it Dreamworks‘ turn to capture a trophy? We have to assume it is. At least the transcendent, wordless Flow (+160) is well-positioned for an upset. Alas, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (+1,400) is out of the running. Should win: Flow or Wallace & Gromit. Will win: Flow.

So there you go. Depressing, ain’t it? This year’s Oscars could be the biggest sucktasm since Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay went to CODA, a Lifetime Original Movie if ever we saw one. Still, no film has coalesced with audiences or critics in the manner of Oppenheimer or Everything Everywhere All At Once. But if you can find I’m Still Here, see it by all means. Your time will be well-invested … the best investment tip we can give.