When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Odds get worse. In the world of Vegas casinos when they’re raking in a billion dollars a month, things are unlikely to change. And for those advantage players who experienced “the good old days,” it has gotten much much harder.
I just had another taste of this locally.
I live in North Carolina. The only casinos are on the far side of the state. It takes as long to drive there as to fly to Vegas — with very limited opportunity. In Danville, Virginia. 90 minutes away, a Caesars casino opened this summer in a semi-permanent tent in a parking lot. Being the only casino within 200 miles, I went to check it out two weeks after its debut.
We’re talking a seriously captive market. They knew it and took maximum advantage of it. Table-game minimums at $200, with roulette at $50. The best video poker 6/5 Jacks or Better. Yikes. After maybe 20 minutes, I left the marks who were cramming in to give Caesars their money.
Fast forward a few months later. I’m driving through Danville. The parking lots are half-full compared to before. It looks like the early adopters have been cleaned out or have just had enough of $200 blackjack and 95% video poker.
I look at one part of a parlay that I know is -12 on the Caesars site and here it’s -17.5!
So I check the Super Bowl futures that I follow, knowing Dallas is at +900 and sure enough, it’s +500. That’s insane. An extra 45% edge. I walk out angry. I’m not a Caesars fan anyway.
To me, this isn’t a winning long-term strategy for, as Benny Binion use to say, “giving a good gamble.” It’s an earnings- quarter-by-quarter corporate strategy for maximum rake and burn.
This is also the problem in Vegas today. COVID bled the corporations badly, but when people started coming back in droves, they were making more than ever, and with less services, like buffets, less employees, and more profit. Heck, let’s throw in triple zero roulette. I mean, why not?
It’s going to be a challenge for this trend to reverse, but we do have a few things in our favor.
One is competition. In Vegas, I can work Fremont Street. I can drive out to the Rainbow in Henderson, play 100%-plus games, and be richly rewarded for it. And the more they build, the better chance I have for some Give Good Gamble.
Another is knowledge — knowing what to play and how to play, when to hold, fold, or walk away.
Finally, MRB coupon strategies and every other advantage play are more important than ever. I’m still in. You?