A few weeks ago on the Gambling with an Edge radio show, poker writer Ed Miller was asked by Munchkin how difficult it would be today for somebody just starting to learn the skills of winning poker. Miller replied that it wouldn’t be that difficult.
At this point I responded, “Keep in mind that the guy who said it wasn’t too difficult has two degrees from MIT.” A man named “Dale” sent me an email saying that his degree was from a no-name college in Iowa. He asked if I were implying that he couldn’t be a successful gambler?
Not at all.
MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) is one of the top schools in the country, especially for math and sciences. The school year starting a few months ago had 18,000 applicants and 1700 were admitted (both numbers rounded). About a third of the admittances had perfect 800 scores in the math portion of the SAT.
When somebody gets admitted to MIT we assume they are:
a. Very smart
b. Good at mathematical logic
This is what we assume for incoming freshman at MIT. For someone who actually graduates from there, we can add:
c. Willing to study
The successful gamblers I know tend to be:
a. Very smart
b. Good at mathematical logic
c. Willing to study
Of the students who graduate from MIT, approximately 100% of them have the intellectual skills and study habits to become professional gamblers — should they wish to do so. (There are lots of personality skills required as well — such as willingness to take a risk and willingness to devote your life to nothing more than the pursuit of money. We’re neglecting those for now.) Relatively few of these graduates choose to go into gambling — which is likely a very good thing. Our society runs better if our smartest members do useful things with their smarts.
I’m not sure which no-name school in Iowa Dale was referring to. Some are better than others — and most don’t emphasize math and science. I’m sure the top students in the Computer Science or Engineering departments at any of the four-year schools in Iowa have what it takes intellectually to be a professional gambler. The students who barely got into these departments probably may not have what it takes. (Barely getting into college can reflect many things — sometimes it takes people longer than their teens to get things together.) With the graduates in English or Political Science, it could go either way. The type of intelligence required to do well in these fields is usually not mathematical in nature, although there are definitely some English professors who are accomplished at mathematics as well.
Many successful gamblers don’t have any college at all, let alone a degree. Most of these people, however, have a lot of “street smarts.” They would score well on the right sort of IQ test — although the test might have to be in a language other than English. Speaking English well is not a requirement at all to be a successful gambler. There have been a large number of successful Vietnamese poker players, some of whom still haven’t mastered English and whose instruction was in their native language by compatriots who came here previously and did well in poker. Many successful gamblers adopt an “Aw shucks” kind of demeanor which disguises whatever intelligence they possess.
Certainly such things as a good memory and lots of study can make up for some intelligence. So can persistence in other areas — such as scouting or waiting for just the right opportunity.
When I spontaneously mentioned Miller had two degrees from MIT and that affected his answer as to how hard learning to play poker competently would be, I was revealing MY prejudice as to what makes a successful gambler. I have no strong data to back me up. It’s possible that things other than intelligence and mathematical aptitude are more important predictors of success. I just don’t know what they would be — and I have been looking.
And whether people would pick somebody like you to be a successful gambler is not at all the same as guaranteeing you can’t be a successful gambler. At the same time, there are lots of MIT graduates who have the right kind of smarts but not the discipline to stay away from games where they DON’T have an edge.