As of July 1, I’m down about $150,000 for the year in video poker, mainly on $5 and $10 single-line games. (I’m ahead a modest amount on slots. Nowhere near the size of my video poker deficit.) Some casinos, where I would happily play with just their normal promotions, have offered me “show up money” so I will come in and hopefully, for them, continue my losing streak.
Casino employees have seen me use a walker both before and after my hip surgery at the end of last year, and the next time they see me, I’ll be in a sling. I look like a 77-year-old man with significant health issues — which is what I am. Recovering from the orthopedic ailments means the quality of my sleep isn’t what it used to be — so my normal level of alertness is there far fewer hours in the day than it was previously. This is probably obvious to anybody who closely observes me. I don’t look like any sort of a video poker guru that casinos should fear.
So, what’s going on? Is this a normal losing streak or have I lost a significant portion of my gambling mojo?
Possibly I’m not the best one to ask, but I’m betting that it’s more the former than the latter. And by ‘betting,’ I mean I’m continuing to play the same games and doing the best I can.
Whenever I go through a losing streak, and there have been several in career, I carefully review the game I’m playing, its strategy at the 100%-accurate level, and the parameters of the slot club and various promotions that make me believe this is a game I should be playing.
I look at my bankroll and verify I have enough to consider playing. At my age, I’m extremely conservative in my bankroll estimates. The option of landing a good-paying job is not available to me. I’m not going to inherit anything. I don’t have a Rembrandt hidden away that I can sell. I do have some relatively small revenue streams coming in, which helps ride out the storm. What I have is what I have and if it goes, it’s gone.
In terms of video poker competence and playing within my bankroll, I’m I confident I’m still all right. In last week’s blog, I referred to the Kelly Criterion that says, approximately, that if your bankroll decreases, you should bet less. I’m still fine betting the stakes I am. In fact, I could still afford $25 games were they available with the same promotions. But they’re not, so I don’t even need to worry about $10 games.
I do have some advantages over other players — namely I’ve been through losing streaks before and they’ve ALWAYS ended and eventually I’ve made up all the lost ground and set a new personal high. I believe wholeheartedly that if I continue to play games where I have the edge, good things will happen. I believe it’s mathematically inevitable.
This confidence cuts both ways, of course. There could easily come a time when I’m no longer mentally competent and what I calculate to be a 99.54% game actually becomes a 98.82% game when I’m hitting the buttons. If (when?) this happens, I could be in a situation where I’m playing a negative game, and no amount of confidence will enable me to ride it out. While I’ve taken several readings and find myself still a competent player, this could happen.
I’ve experienced this kind of situation at a fairly close and personal level. My father, who wasn’t a gambler but had several varied business investments, became less cautious and less competent when he got into his 90s. His children could see this, and we tried to warn him about it, but he was convinced we were all wrong and he was as sharp as he ever was. He blew away 90% of his wealth in the last decade of his life. “Fortunately,” he died at age 96 before he lost it all, but it could have happened. We would have had to get a court order to prevent this, against his kicking and screaming, and that wouldn’t have been fun no matter what the end result was financially.
This isn’t a blogpost asking for your sympathy. I’m fine, have an enviable bankroll, and will recover. It’s meant to be a message saying these types of things happen to all players — even the pros. Most or all of you have experienced something similar. Perhaps lower dollar amounts because you play for lower stakes, but you’ve endured long losing streaks that weren’t fun at all.
Health first then enjoy and profit in your play!
Bob, I definitely am not writing to put you down, but losing $150,000 during just the first half of the year? Even if you aren’t deteriorating mentally, wouldn’t the mere fact of that big loss make you at least consider abandoning this endeavor? I know that you won’t tell us, but I have to wonder how big your bankroll is, that you consider being $150,000 down to be trivial enough that you would continue your VP gambling practice just like you’ve been doing. Most people don’t even have $150,000 to be playing with, and of those who do, most would never consider risking it all on gambling endeavors. And I hate to have to report this, but it is not a mathematical certainly that you will rebound from this $150K loss and get it all back; to the contrary, you might never get it back, and you might not even get close to that. It sounds to me like you’ve got $3 million (or more) stashed away, because I can’t imagine you deeming a $150,000 loss to be small if you’ve only got $1 million. Have you considered just stopping VP play and putting your $3 million into CD’s or into high-yield savings accounts (both of which currently earn over 5%)? That would be an initial gain of $150,000/year, and after taxes it would still be a gain of over $100,000. Can you not live on $100,000/year? And if you remove the “big money” aspect from the gambling picture, if you had an “itch” to still play VP just for the experience of doing your hobby, you could do so at a tiny denomination, such that even if you did lose, it wouldn’t even put a dent in your overall financial situation.
Al, you are placing Bob into your situation, not his. Maybe he has 5 million, maybe he as half a million. His risk level is obviously more than yours is. Its is more than what I am willing to risk. Then again, I doubt that either of us are doing this at the level that Bob does. I know that I do not. I am 71. I have studied a few games, and with the software, I still can only get to 95% of perfect, which is not close to being able to make it positive. I can afford to play, and am comfortable at my level of play and risk level. I am blessed to be able to gamble. But I do it for fun, and if I win, its another blessing. Last year and this year, I have been lucky and am ahead, both on slots and VP. The years before, just the opposite. As for advantage slots, I have not figured that one out. For the most part, the machine may look like its time to hit, but they set them up to look like it and still take a miracle to hit. Specially those fat pigs, LOL.
I’m assuming that Bob has a better financial planner than AL. And Al, don’t you know that your “life needs” money and your bankroll are/should be 2 separate pools of money? We know Bob does have hobbies he enjoys, but gambling is not a hobby but rather his profession. That’s why we’re here to learn from him.
Slight correction to what Susan posted. For me, gambling is both a vocation AND an avocation.
Try Texas Hold-Em, and maybe lower your stress level.
Thanks for sharing. This is the reality of a volatile game like video poker, and it’s nice to see that you are willing to share both the good and the bad. We don’t know what game you are playing, but if it’s one of those with higher volatility, the swings are dramatic. And if you are also dependent on progressives or drawings, then that can make things worse. It’s fun on the upside, not so fun when you are stuck in a losing rut. And if you aren’t confident in that mathematics involved and your ability to play accurately, all you have left is hope that things might turn around.
At the ten dollar denom, you are down about three and a half royals. Which is certainly unpleasant, but not unheard of. I’m guessing over the course of your career you have been up three or more royals over a similar time period a number of times.
The margins are too thin these days. I just wouldn’t play VP for any significant stakes anymore. I pulled back by 2015. I just like playing now and anything close to even is great if I can get a free room or two.
Honestly, the draw of even going to Vegas anymore is waning for me. Gone is the cheap food and good VP games. Usher in all the glitz, etc.
I have had similar ups and downs card counting blackjack and am currently nicely ahead — but at a lower level of play. Bob’s philosophy and mental attitude are correct. In addition, you must enjoy and love the game you are playing.
I have had similar ups and downs card counting blackjack and am currently nicely ahead — but at a lower level of play. Bob’s philosophy and mental attitude are correct. In addition, you must enjoy and love the game you are playing.
One key thing we as readers don’t know is if Mr. Dancer has access to rebate arrangements with any of the casinos. I’m old enough to have been gambling when the LVAdvisor first started publishing. The video poker environment in the late 80’s and 90’s was so different from what it is today, I just cannot stomach playing much video poker in 2024. I’d feel like an idiot if I sustained any heavy losses. I’m a sports bettor, and if sports betting changed odds to 6/5 instead of 11/10, I’d simply call it a day. The edges for video poker have become miniscule, and the comps, which were comparable to slot comps in the 80’s and 90’s, have been seriously reduced.
Was this column written because Biden is in the back of everyone’s mind?
Another thing that’s not mentioned is volume. How much volume effected that (sizeable-looking) loss? Hundreds of thousands of hands? Millions? Zillions?
“mainly on $5 and $10 single-line games”
– Can you please share what exact games you have played and lost? Job and NSU Deuces?
Bob – 150K is quite a hole to dig out of.
I strongly expect you will finish down for the year unfortunately. But you must have expected it at some point. It’s simply predicted EV after many winning years. I mean you did hit 100k at Dotty’s if I’m not mistaken.
You’d have to pull approximately 4 Royals on $10 denom. or 6+ on $5 denom before year’s end. Maybe 1 or 2 more or less depending on results from sessions in between.
Nonetheless, that’s rough. I also suspect you are playing more to try to play out of your slump. This could also go the other way. Wishing you big fortunes ahead.
“You’d have to pull approximately 4 Royals on $10 denom. or 6+ on $5 denom before year’s end. ”
Not really….
You can wager more than 5 credits on either the $5 or $10 machines. Bob has played at Dotty’s, betting $150 per hand (30 credits on the $5 machine or 15 credits on the $10 machine). Therefore, he might only be down by two royals.