In late February, I posted a blog about leaving a machine after hitting a jackpot. My opinion was that, unless the jackpot you hit was a progressive that changed the nature of whether the game was playable or not, I keep playing.
Most responders to the blog agreed with me, but David Miller posted the following: It has been my personal observation that when I hit a large jackpot and continued to play the same machine, I have never increased my winnings by this continuation of play. After 35+ years of playing video poker I can only think of two occasions of observing (and my own play) where another jackpot of any large amount occurred when one continued to play the same machine. My advice: Thank the Lord and take the money and run.
While I thank David for his response, I’m trying to figure out how such an experienced player came up with a conclusion so opposite my own.
David’s term “large jackpot” is somewhat vague. I’m going to arbitrarily define it as 800 coins or larger on a five-coin bet. This would include royals, four aces on many games, four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker on many games, and four deuces on deuces wild games. With that definition, I’ve increased my score after hitting such a jackpot more than 500 times. And many times, I’ve witnessed players sitting near me hit multiple jackpots on the same machine. How can David have so few?
While “David” is a common name and I’ve met many Davids without always knowing a last name, I’m assuming I’ve never met him and I’m also assuming his post is on the level and he believes what he said. So, what I’m saying about him here is speculation. Here are the explanations I’ve come up with:
- He may have been thinking of royal flushes only when he said “large jackpot.” There are many fewer data points if you’re only thinking of those jackpots rather than the 800 coins or higher definition I chose. Hitting two royals in the same day is a pretty rare event. While I’ve done it, (more likely of course on multi-line games than single line games), I’ve played a lot more video poker than most others have.
- While 35+ years is longer than I’ve been playing, perhaps he doesn’t play very much each year. He could have played one weekend every three years, with three or four hours of video poker play per weekend visit. I’ve probably averaged more than 1,500 hours of play a year for the last 31 years. Even though his 35+ years is greater than my 31, if this supposition is true, I’ve played a lot more than he has.
- Possibly David doesn’t remember clearly. I don’t know his age or how good his memory is. Having played 35 years, he must be at least eligible for senior discounts.
- When David says something “never” happens, perhaps he isn’t speaking precisely. To me, “never” means never. Maybe to him, he means “rarely” rather than never.
- There’s a difference in how professional and recreational players play. When a professional player finds a good play, he can play on the same machine for hours — frequently accompanied by other strong players playing for hours. As a group, there will be jackpots numerous times over the course of a 35+ year career. Even if hitting a jackpot represents the “high water mark of the day” 80% of the time, the other 20% of the time scores will get bigger. Over the course of a long career, 20% of a large number of occurrences is a sizeable number.
- The explanation for David’s comments that I believe the most likely, stems from his behavior. Perhaps he changes machines immediately after he hits a jackpot. Since he believes he’s not going to increase his score if he continues to play on the same machine, changing machines for him seems like a smart strategy. If this is the strategy he uses, it’s no wonder he has never increased his score on the same machine after a jackpot simply because he never plays on the same machine after hitting a jackpot.
While I don’t believe in the value of changing machines, it’s not always possible for me anyway. Often the machine I want to play is either a one-of-a-kind or one-of-very-few. If I insist on leaving every time I get a jackpot, there may well not be one of similar EV available.
If my final guess is the correct one, while David’s statement is true, it isn’t at all relevant to those players who stay on the same machine.
If David wants to respond to my comments here, he’s welcome to do so.
#7 – David is a very superstitious poor gambler. That is well documented over in the sink.
And Lord, don’t ask him to respond.
Bob, I attended 2 of your classes @ South Point, when you were there. We have met. (1) I mostly play progressives and what I stated about “never” pertains only to my personal experiences (as I stated) during the past 35 years. (2) In my opinion, there are 3 types of video poker players, for the most part. One is the occasional player, second is the pro who plays all the time and then there are those like myself who visit Vegas 2,3,4+ times a year who play a lot of Video Poker when there. (3) There is nothing wrong with my memory and I am eligible for and do utilize senior discounts.( These two comments are/were unnecessary and suggest that my mental acuity has lessened since I am a senior citizen. Not every senior citizen fits the niche you suggested into which I may fit.) (4) Since I play mostly progressives, I do leave a machine after hitting a large jackpot. In the past I have sat and played numerous times after hitting a jackpot (the same machine) and ended giving up some or most of my winnings chasing another jackpot. I have learned from this and I would rather move than give up my winnings on the same machine. As an aside, I enjoy your postings and look forward to future postings.
“I have learned from this and I would rather move than give up my winnings on the same machine.” – if you don’t give up your winnings on that day, you will give it up next time. It’s just ONE BIG PLAY.
You need a shift in perspective. Remind yourself that everything you’ve witnessed is already part of the past and has no impact on the odds of the game. Why? Because this is how video poker works. Five cards are randomly dealt from a freshly shuffled deck each time, meaning your next hand is neither better nor worse than the one that preceded it.”
Moving to a comparable vp machine after a win? This is a common “wives tale” unsupported by any scientific evidence whatsoever. The RNG and Pseudo RNG cycle 2.3 million combinations at every deal. The behavior of the RNG from one machine to another is simply a small sample size of infinity. Anyone that claims to CONSISTENTLY catch that in a bottle should be awarded the Millenium Achievement Award.
As long as the games and promotions remain identical, switching machines neither improves nor worsens the situation. So it’s up to the players, they can switch if they want to.
However, even if a player hits a jackpot after switching machines, it still doesn’t prove the player wouldn’t have hit the jackpot if the player had stayed on the original machine.
Okay, I must share a terrible but funny story that highlights how ridiculously tight I have always been. My funny story does undercut the gist of what David has experienced. Now bear in mind that I routinely bet thousands of dollars on football games without blinking an eye, so this story is pretty funny.
So I was at the Palms, early AM. I thought the sportsbook would be open, but I was wrong. I had about 40 minutes to kill. I sat at the bank of progressive FPDW near the sportsbook, and there was some kind of breakfast promotion (perhaps Mr. Dancer remembers this one) where if your card was in the machine at 9 AM or something and you had earned some minimal points, you got a free breakfast or half price or something. Well, I never pass up a free breakfast. So I sat and played, but decided to just play 25 cents hand until the sportsbook opened. You know what happens…I hit the royal, with a quarter in the machine. The woman sitting next to me says, “I would have rather not hit it.” Such a sweetheart.
So now I am wryly embarrassed (considering I’m about to bet 4k or 5K on a game or two and I was too cheap to play five quarters), but I say to myself, hey, it’s all good. I still have 10 minutes to kill. I’ll keep playing, but now I’ll do it for five quarters a pop. I play maybe 30-some hands and bingo, bango, I hit the royal again, this time for the progressive.
Fast forward to later in the day. I am checking numbers and getting my Palace Station football contest entries. The linked jackpot at Station properties, however, has a ceiling by which it must hit, and anybody with their card in the machine gets $50. I figure it’ll hit in less than half an hour, so I sit down. But being a cheap bastard idiot, I decide to…you guessed it…play 25 cents a hand. And you guessed it again…after maybe 60 or 80 hands, I hit another royal. LOL. Brutal.
Three royals in a couple hundred hands. Ridiculous, but it actually happened. And I got to be an idiot twice in one day, not breaking any personal records, mind you, but setting a high bar nonetheless.
And then a 4th kind of video poker player. A superstitious nutcase that thinks he knows how to play video poker. That one comes in at last behind the occasional video poker player.
And a sidenote…….I’m not exactly sure that Bob wants you mentioning that you took one of his classes. Not exactly a great endorsement.
Superstition is irrelevant to the randomness of the game, but it can have a significant psychological impact on the player.
Jerry, since Robert hit 3 Royals in a short period of time, regardless of how cheap he got, the fact that he played the correct cards is an endorsement of the teacher and classes. I understand the feeling you get when nothing is going right, so you cut down the bet. Then you get the Royal. And feel like a complete cheap idiot. Happens to us all. The lady saying she would of rather not hit it, is pretty funny. As for being cheap in and of itself, if we all acted like that in LV, maybe the hotels would lower prices and lower the house hold a little bit. Pretty soon it will be cheaper to park illegally and have the car towed to an impound lot for a couple days than parking at the hotels.
When was I talking about Robert?
Try to keep up here, Lucky.
3 Royals in one day! Astronomical. Great story, Robert D, thanks for sharing.
I’m a rec player and have done much the same as David, where I will move pretty soon after hitting a jackpot or large hit on a machine. There have been other times where I will get 4OAK with a kicker and keep playing that machine, only to get a few more 4OAKs in fairly short order.
Most of this depends on where I am playing (which casino, main floor or bar), and how much time I plan to spend playing VP.
Ultimately it’s just, “to each their own” when it comes to gambling, whether playing table games, slots, VP or making sports bets.
Robert – The fact that you got the royal(s) on a one-coin bet doesn’t mean you would have gotten a royal on five coins, probably the exact opposite. Hitting the Bet Max would likely take some fraction of a second longer or shorter than the Bet One button. In that time the machine would have rolled through some or many random numbers and changed your whole sequence of hands dealt. No sense regretting a good outcome that happened.
That’s correct.
Considering the history is irrelevant, as the timing could have played out differently if he had been betting 5 credits. Whatever happened is already part of the history, but it has no influence on the odds of the next hand.
I’m aware, gentlemen, I’m aware.
That’s why I have no regrets. I still think I qualify as a cheap idiot bastard, but that’s strictly a personal evaluation, not a statistical or logical one.
P.S. I must admit, however, that it did NOT occur to me to use that logical reality when the woman next to me said she would just have soon not have hit it.
This was a very rare, maybe even a once in a lifetime event for me, but last year 2024, on a Double Double bonus vp, I hit four Aces with a kicker $1 denomination for $2k, a Royal Flush $1 denomination progressive $4904 and another Royal Flush $5 denomination progressive for over $23k – all on the same machine in just over a one hour span!
As long as the machine was still giving me enough winning hands, I kept playing and that’s what happened.
Incidentally, that same day I hit another Royal Flush $0.25 denomination Ultimate X, DDB with 2x multiplier for $2,000 but on a totally different machine. That has been my lifetime record of hitting Three Royals on a trip to Vegas, much less on the same day!
I went back to play at the same casino this year, again playing my favorite Double Double bonus vp, I hit the Four Aces no kicker on $2 denomination for $1600, Four Aces with the kicker twice—the first one at $1 denomination for $2k, then the second one at $2 denomination for $4k on the same machine (the last two happened within a one hour span). But again, this is rare. Most of the time, I’m depositing and just there for the entertainment.
I’m no expert by any means and probably making mistakes all the time, but for me, I decided that I should play the max credits on vp. (I have hit the Royal on 3 quarters)
But to each his/her own. It’s all luck and of course skills.
I’ve met a woman who has claimed to have 70+ Royals under her belt over the yrs. I think I’ve only gotten less than 20 Royals over my lifetime since I’m just an occasional visitor to Vegas.
Good luck and have fun!
First of all I have great deal of respect and admiration for BD. I love these responses also. Having been to a few of his classes and read many books, blogs and posts on the subject I have no doubt about the randomness of the RNG. I’ve been playing vp since 1993. I don’t play that often but when I play I play as long as finances will allow. For example last time to vegas for four nights me and the wife played 40 plus hours. Many look at this as excessive. I just like to hunt Royals and kickers. Even with knowledge I like to machine hop. It works better for me. I’ve watched people hit Aces with a kicker and play it all back. This is great hit for me. I don’t like to spend more than $1k at a time or for a session. I don’t have the financial ability to play more. That’s part of it
Anyhow I don’t mind that the pros laugh at this. Fortunately for me I discovered Bob’s strategy cards many many moons ago and play as close to perfect as I like. Im not looking for a perfect play as much as excitement. I find that mainly with TDB and DDB. I’ll probably feel different when I retire to Vegas in a few years but not right now. Thanks everyone for your experience. It’s help me shape into my own style of playing